ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A (APC) AI Stock Analysis

39 Followers

ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A

(NASDAQ:APC)

Select Model

Rating:52Neutral

Price Target:$14.00▼(-9.09% Downside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/05/26

The score is held back primarily by high leverage and thin margins (financial performance) and weak downside technical momentum. Offsetting factors include a relatively reasonable P/E with a high dividend yield (valuation) and a generally constructive earnings update featuring raised EBITDA guidance and expected incremental earnings from the USPP acquisition, despite volume and working-capital headwinds.

Positive Factors

Improving Operating PerformanceYear-over-year growth in Adjusted EBITDA and discretionary cash flow indicates improving operating execution and stronger earnings conversion. If sustained, this progress can support reinvestment, strengthen the platform’s competitive position, and improve the company’s ability to fund strategic initiatives internally.

Negative Factors

Extremely High LeverageVery high leverage leaves the company more exposed to weaker margins, lower volumes, and refinancing or interest burdens. A relatively small equity base limits financial flexibility, potentially restricting acquisitions, investment, and shareholder distributions if operating conditions deteriorate.

ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A (APC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $708.79M
Dividend Yield: 5.13%
Average Volume (3M): 145.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.9
Beta (1Y): -0.11
Revenue Growth: ―
EPS Growth: ―
Country: US
Employees: 360
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ARKO Petroleum Corp. is a North American company specializing in fuel distribution, operating across three core segments: wholesale, fleet fueling, and GPMP. A significant portion of its business involves the fee-based wholesale supply of motor fuel,...

ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:12.08%|Next Earnings Date:Apr 05, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive: APC reported year-over-year growth in Adjusted EBITDA, discretionary cash flow, net income, fuel contribution, and segment operating income; raised full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance; maintained its dividend; and continued advancing the strategically important USPP acquisition. These positives were partly offset by lower fuel volumes, consumer demand pressure from elevated prices, lower operating cash flow, and working-capital pressure. The transcript also contained inconsistent guidance ranges in the CEO and CFO remarks.

Positive Updates

Strong Third-Quarter Earnings Growth

Adjusted EBITDA was $41 million, up 9.4% year over year from $37.4 million, while discretionary cash flow was $32.3 million, an increase of approximately 22%. Net income increased to $13.3 million from $10.1 million in the prior-year period.

Negative Updates

Lower Fuel Volumes from Elevated Prices

Wholesale gallons declined 4.3%, and Fleet Fueling gallons were 36.2 million versus 36.6 million in the prior-year period. Management attributed the broader volume decline to elevated fuel prices weighing on demand and said consumers were driving less.

Company Guidance

Management raised full year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance, with Arie Kotler stating a range of $156 million to $150 million and Jordan Mann stating a range of $156 million to $157 million; Kotler also said USPP would deliver approximately $5 million in Q4 and that APC could achieve $156 million plus. The USPP acquisition is expected to close during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 26 and contribute approximately $30 million of annualized Adjusted EBITDA, approximately 280 million gallons of annual fuel volumes across approximately 400 dealer locations, and increase APC's trailing 12 months volume by approximately 14%. APC is targeting 20 cardlogs a year, has opened 7 already this year, has another 6 in the works and 23 in different types of approval and development, with a cost of probably no more than $2 million to build a cardlock and targeting mid- to high-teen return; the 2026 dividend target is $2.00 per share annualized, or $0.50 per share quarterly.

ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Operating trends improved and 2025 showed strong revenue growth with positive free cash flow, but overall financial quality is constrained by very thin profitability (gross margin ~3.4%, net margin ~0.3%) and an extremely leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~10.8x). Cash generation is positive but uneven, indicating limited resilience if conditions soften.

Income Statement

56Neutral

Balance Sheet

22Negative

Cash Flow

48Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2018	Dec 2017
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.29B	7.64B	6.37B	6.97B	13.38B	11.91B
Gross Profit	160.69M	261.05M	180.91M	178.40M	12.34B	11.91B
EBITDA	138.88M	256.39M	141.82M	133.70M	6.55B	3.28B
Net Income	20.79M	22.74M	40.22M	41.38M	615.00M	-456.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.42B	3.53B	1.09B	1.02B	40.38B	42.09B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	10.11M	330.18M	25.09M	17.11M	1.29B	4.55B
Total Debt	796.83M	3.95B	753.52M	604.55M	16.42B	15.69B
Total Liabilities	1.17B	3.17B	1.02B	909.71M	31.88B	31.39B
Stockholders Equity	247.86M	367.24M	65.57M	106.45M	8.50B	10.70B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	20.14M	65.30M	95.50M	46.82M	-254.00M	-1.02B
Operating Cash Flow	67.07M	192.59M	106.76M	58.80M	5.93B	4.01B
Investing Cash Flow	-42.14M	-119.79M	-9.44M	-79.65M	-6.00B	-1.03B
Financing Cash Flow	-63.20M	-41.51M	-89.08M	25.40M	-3.18B	-1.61B

ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

APC against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DINO	78Outperform	$16.92B	5.15	34.53%	2.02%	29.47%	848.69%
PARR	78Outperform	$3.36B	3.66	55.18%	―	29.06%	298.17%
DK	64Neutral	$3.80B	3.48	228.60%	1.59%	27.13%	―
SUN	64Neutral	$12.95B	10.59	21.79%	4.98%	135.84%	104.10%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
CAPL	53Neutral	$759.27M	15.71	-55.84%	10.36%	9.12%	3.86%
APC	52Neutral	$708.80M	15.88	8.02%	5.13%	―	―

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

APC and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
APC	ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A	15.40	-1.46	-8.68%
DK	Delek US	67.16	28.60	74.18%
DINO	HF Sinclair Corporation	101.73	49.41	94.43%
SUN	Sunoco LP	65.34	17.18	35.68%
CAPL	Crossamerica Partners LP	20.27	1.27	6.67%
PARR	Par Pacific Holdings	71.18	30.05	73.06%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 05, 2026

ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A AI Stock Analysis