Aemetis Inc (AMTX)
NASDAQ:AMTX
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Aemetis
(NASDAQ:AMTX)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▼(-33.92% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/25/26
AMTX scores low primarily due to weak financial fundamentals—persistent losses, ongoing cash burn, and a highly stressed balance sheet with heavy debt and negative equity. Technicals also lean bearish with the stock trading below major moving averages and negative MACD, despite oversold readings. The earnings call improves the outlook somewhat through clearer catalysts and operating improvement, but execution, liquidity, and regulatory/financing timing risks remain key constraints.
Positive Factors
Revenue and operating improvement
A 27% YoY revenue increase with a return to positive gross profit signals durable demand and improving unit economics across segments. This trend indicates the business model is beginning to scale, supporting margin recovery and a clearer path to converting top-line growth into sustained operating improvements.
Negative Factors
Highly leveraged balance sheet
Debt materially exceeds tangible assets and equity is deeply negative, creating persistent solvency and refinancing risk. This structurally limits financial flexibility, raises cost of capital, and increases vulnerability to interest or liquidity shocks, constraining the company's ability to execute growth projects without external support.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and operating improvement
A 27% YoY revenue increase with a return to positive gross profit signals durable demand and improving unit economics across segments. This trend indicates the business model is beginning to scale, supporting margin recovery and a clearer path to converting top-line growth into sustained operating improvements.
Read all positive factors
Aemetis (AMTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$120.33M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth-7.64%
EPS Growth36.26%
CountryUS
Employees223
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.19
Shares Outstanding70,366,480
10 Day Avg. Volume1,002,053
30 Day Avg. Volume1,266,860
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-0.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-4.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap4.45
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.43
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit75.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-31.71
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$25.00Price Target Upside1001.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.89
Revenue Forecast (FY)$290.31M
Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aemetis, Inc. is an enterprise specializing in renewable natural gas and sustainable fuels, conducting operations across North America and India. The company's business activities are structured into three primary divisions: California Ethanol, Da...
How the Company Makes Money
Aemetis makes money primarily by producing and selling renewable fuels and related products, and by monetizing environmental credit programs tied to low-carbon fuel production.
Key revenue streams include:
1) Sale of renewable fuels and co-produc...
Aemetis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a clear operational and financial inflection: strong top-line growth (+27%), return to positive gross profit, meaningful operating loss improvement (~60%), and tangible project progress (LCFS pathway approvals, dairy RNG expansion, Keyes MVR equipment on-site). Management also highlighted significant near-term catalysts (45z GREET update, MBR commissioning, rising LCFS prices, India IPO) that could materially improve cash flow and margins. However, the company still reports negative adjusted EBITDA and a net loss, has modest cash on hand ($4.8M), and faces financing and policy timing risks—notably for the large RD/SAF project and full realization of LCFS/45z-related uplift. On balance, the positives and actionable catalysts outweigh the risks outlined, but execution and regulatory clarity remain critical.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 27% year-over-year to $54.6 million in Q1 2026 from $42.9 million in Q1 2025, with growth across all three reportable operating segments.
Negative Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Ongoing Losses
Adjusted EBITDA was negative $1.3 million for the quarter (reflecting winter seasonality). The company remains net loss-making with Q1 net loss of $21.7 million despite improvements versus the prior year.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 27% year-over-year to $54.6 million in Q1 2026 from $42.9 million in Q1 2025, with growth across all three reportable operating segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aemetis guided 2026 toward scaling production, monetizing stacked credit value, completing an India IPO and refinancing short‑term debt into long‑term financing, with key catalysts being DOE’s updated 45z GREET model (expected soon), rising LCFS prices and commissioning of the Keyes MBR/MVR later this year (management expects ~ $32M in incremental annual cash flow). The Q1 results underpinning this guidance included revenue up 27% to $54.6M (from $42.9M), gross profit of $2.8M (versus a $5.1M loss a year earlier), operating loss improved ~60% to $6.3M (from $15.6M), net loss narrowed to $21.7M (from $24.5M), Adjusted EBITDA of –$1.3M, cash and equivalents of $4.8M, and $6.5M of capital investments in CI reduction and digester construction. Operational metrics tied to the plan: 110k MMBtu dairy RNG sold in Q1 (+55% YoY), $27M fabrication contract for pretreatment skids (four units delivered), H2S and compression equipment contracted for 15 additional digesters (4 delivered) to double the dairy network into 2027, a $40M mechanical vapor compression project at Keyes with major equipment on site, seven CARB RNG pathways approved at an average CI of –380 (vs a –150 default) with six more nearing approval, India biodiesel revenue rebounded to $10.5M in Q1, and ongoing monetization of Section 48 investment tax credits (about $95M sold to date) as projects reach in‑service dates.Aemetis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
22
Negative
Balance Sheet
14
Very Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 219.71M | 207.98M | 267.64M | 186.72M | 256.51M | 211.95M |
| Gross Profit | 7.07M | -768.00K | -580.00K | 2.02M | -5.54M | 7.94M |
| EBITDA | -16.87M | -24.41M | -49.82M | -34.84M | -79.72M | -21.64M |
| Net Income | -74.19M | -77.00M | -87.54M | -46.42M | -107.76M | -47.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 270.33M | 259.84M | 259.30M | 243.41M | 207.11M | 160.83M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.80M | 4.89M | 898.00K | 2.67M | 4.31M | 7.75M |
| Total Debt | 404.68M | 381.76M | 338.06M | 296.91M | 248.77M | 191.34M |
| Total Liabilities | 591.47M | 566.67M | 523.23M | 460.38M | 408.97M | 281.07M |
| Stockholders Equity | -321.14M | -306.83M | -263.93M | -216.98M | -201.85M | -120.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -38.18M | -22.74M | -53.18M | -19.29M | -62.02M | -47.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -7.45M | 3.26M | -32.93M | 13.82M | -22.87M | -20.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.87M | -25.59M | -14.15M | -23.69M | -31.31M | -22.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 39.85M | 26.41M | 44.62M | 9.09M | 53.63M | 50.70M |
Aemetis Technical Analysis
Negative
2.27
Price Trends
2.43
Negative
2.26
Negative
2.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.21
Positive
33.32
Neutral
14.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.08, below the 50-day MA of 2.43, and above the 200-day MA of 2.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMTX.
Aemetis Risk Analysis
Aemetis disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aemetis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aemetis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $13.62B | 16.79 | 17.28% | 6.88% | 37.27% | -29.09% | |
65 Neutral | $424.54M | 5.34 | 29.84% | 6.14% | 3.12% | 41.70% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $849.70M | 14.56 | -85.35% | 10.09% | -9.39% | 87.18% | |
56 Neutral | $5.10B | 11.39 | 8.35% | 4.14% | -4.33% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $411.82M | -4.10 | -17.35% | ― | 4.99% | 49.26% | |
46 Neutral | $120.33M | -1.44 | 24.28% | ― | -7.64% | 36.26% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AMTX
Aemetis
1.71
-0.77
-31.05%
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels
1.87
-0.08
-4.10%
SGU
Star Gas Partners
12.93
1.92
17.47%
PBF
PBF Energy
43.11
22.16
105.81%
SUN
Sunoco
66.50
16.32
32.52%
CAPL
Crossamerica Partners
22.27
3.31
17.45%
Aemetis Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Aemetis Shareholders Back Director Election and Auditor Ratification
Positive
May 26, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on May 20, 2026, Aemetis shareholders elected Lydia I. Beebe as a Class II director, with her term set to run until the 2029 annual meeting and until a successor is duly chosen. Investors also ratified th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.