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Aemetis
(NASDAQ:AMTX)
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Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-46.81% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/17/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial fundamentals—negative equity, rising leverage, continuing losses, and negative free cash flow. Technicals also remain bearish with price below key moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call pointed to tangible operational progress (positive operating income/EBITDA) and several near-term catalysts, while valuation is difficult to assess given negative earnings and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Improving revenue and profitability
The improvement in revenue, operating income, and adjusted EBITDA shows that core operations are moving toward stronger profitability. If maintained, this operating leverage can improve internal funding capacity and make future growth investments less dependent on external capital.
Negative Factors
Severe balance-sheet leverage
Negative equity combined with rising debt materially limits financial flexibility and increases refinancing risk. The mismatch between debt obligations and the reported asset base can constrain capital allocation, raise financing dependence, and leave less capacity to absorb operating setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving revenue and profitability
The improvement in revenue, operating income, and adjusted EBITDA shows that core operations are moving toward stronger profitability. If maintained, this operating leverage can improve internal funding capacity and make future growth investments less dependent on external capital.
Read all positive factors
Aemetis (AMTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$98.87M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)795.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.67
Revenue Growth2.95%
EPS Growth43.31%
CountryUS
Employees220
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryChemicals - Specialty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.91
Shares Outstanding72,169,590
10 Day Avg. Volume643,610
30 Day Avg. Volume795,377
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-0.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-4.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.75
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit27.88
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-39.75
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.00Price Target Upside804.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$264.15M
Aemetis Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aemetis, Inc. is an enterprise specializing in renewable natural gas and sustainable fuels, conducting operations across North America and India. The company's business activities are structured into three primary divisions: California Ethanol, Da...
How the Company Makes Money
Aemetis makes money primarily by producing and selling renewable fuels and associated environmental credits/attributes. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sales of renewable natural gas (RNG): The company captures biogas from anaerobic digestion of ...
Aemetis Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful operational and financial progress: revenue grew 20%, adjusted EBITDA swung positive to $9.7M, operating income improved materially, and multiple near-term catalysts (45Z credit realizations, LCFS pathway approvals, MVR commissioning, corn oil expansion, and India tender revenues) could drive further cash flow. However, the company faces notable near-term risks including a very low cash balance at quarter end, remaining net loss, dependency on regulatory decisions (DOE and CARB) for full 45Z/LCFS value realization, debt/refinancing needs, and timing uncertainty for India IPO and biodiesel demand. On balance the call emphasized tangible improvements and clear catalysts while acknowledging execution and timing risks.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 20% year-over-year to $62.7 million in Q2 2026 from $52.2 million in Q2 2025, driven by growth in California Ethanol and Dairy RNG segments.
Negative Updates
Very Low Cash Balance at Quarter End
Cash on hand at quarter end was only $1.0 million, leaving near-term liquidity tight until expected cash inflows (e.g., 45Z proceeds and India deliveries) materialize.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Consolidated revenue grew 20% year-over-year to $62.7 million in Q2 2026 from $52.2 million in Q2 2025, driven by growth in California Ethanol and Dairy RNG segments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance emphasized near-term operational and revenue catalysts with many quantifiable metrics: Q2 results included $62.7M revenue (+20% YoY), $5.8M operating income (vs. a $10.7M loss prior year, +$16.4M), $9.7M Adjusted EBITDA (vs. -$5.8M, +$15.5M), a $9.4M net loss (improved $14M), and $1M cash at quarter end; Section 45Z credits contributed $8.6M ($2.2M dairy RNG, $6.4M ethanol) and $17.6M net proceeds were received from a 45Z sale on July 9; excluding 45Z Q2 gross profit was $13.8M (up >$8M YoY) driven by corn at $6.07/bu vs $6.42, ethanol volume +12%, ethanol price +9% and RNG volume +38%; capital spend was $8.6M in Q2 ($15.1M H1). Key milestones and expected impacts: two dairy digesters to come online within a month (company operates 12 digesters today, serving 15 dairies, >50 dairies under contract; avg dairy ~25–30k MMBtu/yr), six additional CARB LCFS pathways progressing, MVR at Keyes to be operational by end-2026 (installed 6 × 3,500‑hp turbofans, ~$19.7M in grants/tax credits) expected to cut ~80% of natural gas use and add roughly $32M in annual cash flow, three corn-oil units (2 live, 3rd this fall) should double corn oil output vs Q1, India biodiesel Q2 revenue was $2.5M and a recent allocation to supply ~18M liters over 3 months is expected to generate ~ $17M revenue, and regulatory fixes could materially uplift 45Z values (current posted ~$15.20/MMBtu at a -42 CI vs. potential >$75/MMBtu at ~-375), ethanol 45Z CI fixes could yield $6M–$24M catch-up and $6M–$12M/yr ongoing, CO2 reuse could add ~$12M–$15M/yr, while LCFS prices have moved from ~$55 to ~$80 and could rise toward regulatory cap ($270) over time.Aemetis Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
24
Negative
Balance Sheet
12
Very Negative
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 230.17M | 207.98M | 267.64M | 186.72M | 256.51M | 211.95M |
| Gross Profit | 23.94M | -768.00K | -580.00K | 2.02M | -5.54M | 7.94M |
| EBITDA | -16.79M | -25.03M | -49.82M | -34.84M | -79.72M | -21.64M |
| Net Income | -60.16M | -77.00M | -87.54M | -46.42M | -107.76M | -47.15M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 289.18M | 259.84M | 259.30M | 243.41M | 207.11M | 160.83M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 973.00K | 4.89M | 898.00K | 2.67M | 4.31M | 7.75M |
| Total Debt | 419.87M | 381.76M | 338.06M | 296.91M | 248.77M | 191.34M |
| Total Liabilities | 611.29M | 566.67M | 523.23M | 460.38M | 408.97M | 281.07M |
| Stockholders Equity | -322.11M | -306.83M | -263.93M | -216.98M | -201.85M | -120.24M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -56.44M | -22.74M | -53.18M | -19.29M | -62.02M | -47.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -14.16M | 3.26M | -32.93M | 13.82M | -22.87M | -20.65M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -39.40M | -25.59M | -14.15M | -23.69M | -31.31M | -22.89M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 51.59M | 26.41M | 44.62M | 9.09M | 53.63M | 50.70M |
Aemetis Technical Analysis
Negative
1.88
Price Trends
1.78
Negative
1.77
Negative
1.98
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.15
Positive
22.70
Positive
8.53
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.88 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.60, above the 50-day MA of 1.78, and below the 200-day MA of 1.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.15 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 22.70 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.53 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMTX.
Aemetis Risk Analysis
Aemetis disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aemetis reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aemetis Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $9.67B | 7.10 | 24.08% | 1.35% | 13.54% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $15.04B | 14.72 | 18.17% | 5.23% | 83.34% | 123.75% | |
67 Neutral | $428.51M | 6.30 | 20.42% | 5.92% | 7.58% | 33.62% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $829.12M | 15.42 | -72.93% | 9.47% | 0.29% | 21.69% | |
51 Neutral | $297.60M | -3.09 | -16.68% | ― | 4.50% | 52.98% | |
45 Neutral | $98.87M | -1.39 | 19.17% | ― | 2.95% | 43.31% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AMTX
Aemetis
1.20
-1.32
-52.38%
CLNE
Clean Energy Fuels
1.40
-1.46
-51.05%
SGU
Star Gas Partners
12.98
1.67
14.75%
PBF
PBF Energy
79.25
46.02
138.45%
SUN
Sunoco
72.99
22.03
43.24%
CAPL
Crossamerica Partners
22.18
3.32
17.62%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.