ams-OSRAM (AMSSY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For Q3 the company guided revenue of EUR 770–870 million and adjusted EBITDA around 16% ±1.5 percentage points (assumes EUR/USD = 1.15), implying an EBITDA margin range of roughly 14.5%–17.5%; full‑year 2026 revenue is expected modestly lower due to portfolio divestments and FX, adjusted EBITDA somewhat below prior year, and net result expected positive in the high double‑digit million euro range (boosted by the non‑optical sensor sale). CapEx is reiterated at ~8% of revenue for 2026, and management reiterated a path to positive free cash flow in 2027 (excluding future disposals); near‑term FCF guidance excluding disposal proceeds was given as “more than EUR -100 million” in one slide, although in Q&A the CFO indicated a larger 2026 cash burn excluding proceeds of a bit more than EUR -300 million. Liquidity and balance‑sheet metrics: quarter‑end cash ≈ EUR 1.0 billion (≈EUR 1.6 billion post‑Infineon close) and total liquidity ≈EUR 2.1 billion including the revolver; the company placed EUR 1.0 billion senior notes at 7.25% (reducing annual interest cost by ≈EUR 40 million), repurchased EUR 127 million of 2027 converts, has ≈EUR 430 million of converts outstanding and ≈EUR 725 million of 2029 senior notes remaining, and faces a mandatory offer for guarantor assets of EUR 120–150 million within 120 days. Simplify targets EUR 200 million of annualized savings by 2028 (≈EUR 10 million realized to date, ≈EUR 30 million target by end‑2026 and ≈EUR 100 million by end‑2027).