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Alumis Inc.
(NASDAQ:ALMS)
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Rating:44Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▼(-69.60% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/12/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (large ongoing losses and very heavy free-cash-flow burn) and a strongly bearish technical setup (price well below all major moving averages with negative MACD). Corporate events provide some offset due to strong Phase 3 psoriasis efficacy and safety data, but the failed lupus endpoints and lack of profitability/income support keep the overall profile high-risk.
Positive Factors
Durable psoriasis efficacy
The sustained clearance rates in a Phase 3 extension support envudeucitinib’s potential clinical differentiation among oral psoriasis treatments. Durable efficacy and a favorable safety profile could strengthen adoption and support the planned U.S. regulatory submission.
Negative Factors
Lupus trial failure
Failure on the main lupus endpoints weakens confidence in broad systemic lupus efficacy and raises development risk for the program. The positive high-interferon subgroup may support targeted work, but it narrows the demonstrated opportunity and leaves further validation necessary.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable psoriasis efficacy
The sustained clearance rates in a Phase 3 extension support envudeucitinib’s potential clinical differentiation among oral psoriasis treatments. Durable efficacy and a favorable safety profile could strengthen adoption and support the planned U.S. regulatory submission.
Read all positive factors
Alumis Inc. (ALMS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$942.48M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.12M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-1.38
Revenue Growth-63.11%
EPS Growth15.36%
CountryUS
Employees237
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.80
Shares Outstanding129,435,240
10 Day Avg. Volume2,158,251
30 Day Avg. Volume4,118,086
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.05
Price to Book (P/B)27.54
Price to Sales (P/S)345.07
P/FCF Ratio-22.42
Enterprise Value/Market Cap3.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue422.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit479.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.50Price Target Upside28.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-3.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$6.40M
Alumis Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. The company offers envudeucitinib, a tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque ps...
Alumis Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
12
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 7.40M | 24.05M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | 6.53M | 20.55M | -3.15M | 0.00 | -250.00K |
| EBITDA | -441.99M | -248.39M | -291.08M | -153.71M | -111.68M |
| Net Income | -438.96M | -243.32M | -294.23M | -154.99M | -111.93M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 560.62M | 411.94M | 340.99M | 89.61M | 108.17M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 502.29M | 308.50M | 288.26M | 48.95M | 92.86M |
| Total Debt | 36.43M | 36.91M | 30.72M | 32.58M | 1.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 108.46M | 110.64M | 80.89M | 428.87M | 303.41M |
| Stockholders Equity | 452.16M | 301.30M | 260.10M | -339.26M | -195.24M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -351.80M | -370.18M | -256.81M | -134.47M | -110.13M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -351.40M | -369.52M | -255.08M | -129.97M | -107.72M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -97.94M | 287.88M | -113.79M | 60.47M | -68.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 360.93M | 2.07M | 492.37M | 89.68M | 101.63M |
Alumis Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
23.03
Price Trends
15.23
Negative
20.10
Negative
22.00
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.10
Negative
25.83
Positive
47.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ALMS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 23.03 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.37, above the 50-day MA of 15.23, and above the 200-day MA of 22.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 25.83 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ALMS.
Alumis Inc. Risk Analysis
Alumis Inc. disclosed 78 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Alumis Inc. reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Alumis Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $463.11M | -1.64 | -178.58% | ― | 287.93% | -21.91% | |
59 Neutral | $1.66B | -12.09 | -59.21% | ― | -62.28% | 15.36% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
47 Neutral | $237.46M | -2.81 | 44.63% | ― | 3.03% | 57.71% | |
44 Neutral | $942.48M | -1.86 | -102.97% | ― | -63.11% | 15.36% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
ALMS
Alumis Inc.
7.06
2.43
52.48%
AUTL
Autolus Therapeutics
1.74
0.12
7.41%
ADCT
ADC Therapeutics
1.86
-2.25
-54.74%
ABSI
AbSci
9.67
5.77
147.95%
Alumis Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Alumis Reports Phase 2b Envudeucitinib Data in Lupus
Negative
Sep 1, 2026
On September 1, 2026, Alumis reported topline data from its Phase 2b LUMUS trial of envudeucitinib in moderate-to-severe systemic lupus erythematosus, noting that the study failed to meet its primary and secondary endpoints in the overall populati...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Alumis reports strong Phase 3 data for envudeucitinib
Positive
Aug 10, 2026
On August 10, 2026, Alumis reported topline long-term extension data from its Phase 3 ONWARD3 study of envudeucitinib in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. The investigational oral TYK2 inhibitor delivered leading skin clearance, with 75% of pat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.