Alumis Inc. (ALMS) Risk Analysis

Because we have limited financial and managerial resources, we focus our development efforts on certain selected product candidates in certain selected indications. For example, we are initially focused on our most advanced product candidate, envu, currently in development for the treatment of PsO and SLE, and our second product candidate A-005, currently in development for the treatment of neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. As a result, we may forgo or delay pursuit of opportunities with other product candidates, or other indications for our existing product candidates that later prove to have greater commercial potential. Our resource allocation decisions may cause us to fail to capitalize on viable commercial products or profitable market opportunities. Our spending on current and future development programs and product candidates for specific indications may not yield any commercially viable product candidates. For example, we discontinued our proof-of-concept Phase 2a clinical trial of envu in patients with non-infectious uveitis in June 2024 based on the efficacy results of a data analysis prepared for a scheduled monitoring committee meeting, which efficacy results did not meet our clinical threshold for success despite safety results consistent with envu's safety profile in psoriasis patients. If we do not accurately evaluate the commercial potential or target market for a particular product candidate, we may relinquish valuable rights to that product candidate through collaboration, licensing or other royalty arrangements in cases in which it would have been more advantageous for us to retain sole development and commercialization rights to such product candidate.

We currently have no products approved for commercial sale or for which regulatory approval to market has been sought. We have invested a significant portion of our efforts and financial resources in the development of our most advanced product candidate, envu, which is still in clinical development, and expect that we will continue to invest heavily in envu, as well as our second product candidate, A-005, and any future product candidates we may develop. Additionally, in May 2026, we completed our strategic review of the lonigutamab program, ACELYRIN's lead product candidate. While we decided to pursue strategic alternatives for the lonigutamab program, there can be no assurance that any such strategic alternative will be successfully identified or consummated on favorable terms, if at all. Our business and our ability to generate revenue, which we do not expect will occur for many years, if ever, are substantially dependent on our ability to develop, obtain regulatory approval for, and then successfully commercialize our product candidates, which may never occur. Our product candidates will require substantial additional preclinical and clinical development time, regulatory approval,commercial manufacturing arrangements, establishment of a commercial organization, significant marketing efforts and further investment before we can generate any revenue from product sales. We currently generate no revenue, and we may never be able to develop or commercialize any products. We cannot assure you that we will meet our timelines for our current or future clinical trials, which may be delayed or not completed for a number of reasons, including the negative impacts of geopolitical instability, public health crises, labor shortages, inflation or other macroeconomic factors impacting our third-party CROs, CMOs, clinical trial sites, investigators or us. Our product candidates are susceptible to the risks of failure inherent at any stage of product development, including the appearance of unexpected AEs or failure to achieve primary endpoints in clinical trials. For example, we discontinued our proof-of-concept Phase 2a clinical trial of envu in patients with non-infectious uveitis in June 2024 based on the efficacy results of a data analysis prepared for a scheduled monitoring committee meeting, which efficacy results did not meet our clinical threshold for success despite safety results consistent with envu's safety profile in psoriasis patients. Additionally, we may in the future advance envu, A-005 or future product candidates into clinical trials and terminate such trials prior to their completion. Even if our product candidates are successful in clinical trials, we are not permitted to market or promote our product candidates before we receive regulatory approval from the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities, and we may never receive sufficient regulatory approval that will allow us to successfully commercialize any product candidates. If we do not receive FDA or comparable foreign regulatory approval with the necessary conditions to allow commercialization, we will not be able to generate revenue from those product candidates in the United States or elsewhere in the foreseeable future, or at all. Any significant delays in obtaining approval for and commercializing our product candidates could adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects. We have not previously submitted an NDA or similar marketing application to the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities for any product candidate, and we cannot be certain that our current or any future product candidates will be successful in clinical trials or receive regulatory approval. Although we plan to submit an NDA for envu for PsO in the fourth quarter of 2026, we will need to meet with the FDA and they may raise concerns or requirements that delay submission beyond our anticipated timeline. The FDA may also consider its approvals of competing products, which may alter the treatment landscape concurrently with their review of any NDA we may submit, and which may lead to changes in the FDA's review requirements that have been previously communicated to us and our interpretation thereof, including changes to requirements for clinical data or clinical study design. Such changes could delay approval or necessitate withdrawal of any such NDA submission. Similar risks may exist in foreign jurisdictions. If approved for marketing by applicable regulatory authorities, our ability to generate revenue from our product candidates will depend on our ability to: - price our products competitively such that third-party and government reimbursement permits broad product adoption;- demonstrate the superiority of our products compared to the standard of care, as well as to other therapies in development;- create market demand for our product candidates through our own marketing and sales activities, and any other arrangements to promote these product candidates that we may otherwise establish;- receive regulatory approval for the targeted patient populations and claims that are necessary or desirable for successful marketing;- effectively commercialize any of our products that receive regulatory approval;- manufacture product candidates through CMOs in sufficient quantities and at acceptable quality and manufacturing cost to meet commercial demand at launch and thereafter;- establish and maintain agreements with wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies and group purchasing organizations on commercially reasonable terms;- obtain, maintain, protect and enforce patent and other intellectual property protection and regulatory exclusivity for our products;- achieve market acceptance of our products by patients, the medical community and third-party payors;- maintain a distribution and logistics network capable of product storage within our specifications and regulatory guidelines, and further capable of timely product delivery to commercial clinical sites; and - assure that our product will be used as directed and that additional unexpected safety risks will not arise.

We have conducted, are currently conducting, and may in the future conduct, clinical trials outside the United States, including (without limitation) in the EU, the UK, Japan, Latin America and Asia-Pacific countries. We expect to continue to conduct trials internationally in the future. The acceptance of data from clinical trials conducted outside the United States or another jurisdiction by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities may be subject to certain conditions or may not be accepted at all. In cases where data from foreign clinical trials are intended to serve as the sole basis for regulatory approval in the United States, the FDA will generally not approve the application on the basis of foreign data alone unless (i) the data are applicable to the U.S. population and U.S. medical practice and (ii) the trials were performed by clinical investigators of recognized competence and pursuant to GCP regulations and (iii) the data may be considered valid without the need for an on-site inspection by the FDA, or if the FDA considers such inspection to be necessary, the FDA is able to validate the data through an on-site inspection or other appropriate means. In addition, even where the foreign study data are not intended to serve as the sole basis for approval, the FDA will not accept the data as support for an application for regulatory approval unless the study is well-designed and well-conducted in accordance with GCP requirements and the FDA is able to validate the data from the study through an onsite inspection if deemed necessary. Many foreign regulatory authorities have similar requirements for clinical data gathered outside of their respective jurisdictions. In addition, such foreign trials are subject to the applicable local laws of the foreign jurisdictions where the trials are conducted. There can be no assurance that the FDA or any comparable foreign regulatory authority will accept data from trials conducted outside of the United States or the applicable jurisdiction. If the FDA or any comparable foreign regulatory authority does not accept such data, it would result in the need for additional trials, which could be costly and time-consuming, and which may result in current or future product candidates that we may develop being delayed or not receiving approval for commercialization in the applicable jurisdiction.

From time to time, we may publicly disclose preliminary or top-line data from our preclinical studies and clinical trials, which are based on preliminary analyses of then-available data, and the results and related findings and conclusions are subject to change following a more comprehensive review of the data related to the particular preclinical study or clinical trial. We also make assumptions, estimations, calculations and conclusions as part of our analyses of data, and we may not have received or had the opportunity to fully and carefully evaluate all data. As a result, the top-line or preliminary results that we report may differ from future results of the same studies or trials, or different conclusions or considerations may qualify such results, once additional data have been received and fully evaluated. Top-line and preliminary data also remain subject to audit and verification procedures that may result in the final data being materially different from the preliminary data we previously published. As a result, top-line and preliminary data should be viewed with caution until the final data are available. From time to time, we may also disclose data from interim analyses from our clinical trials. Interim analyses from clinical trials that we may complete are subject to the risk that one or more of the clinical outcomes may materially change as participants enrollment continues and more participant data become available or as participants from our clinical trials continue other treatments for their disease. Adverse differences between interim data, topline data, or preliminary data and final data could significantly harm our business prospects. Further, others, including regulatory authorities, may not accept or agree with our assumptions, estimates, calculations, conclusions or analyses or may interpret or weigh the importance of data differently, which could impact the value of the particular program, the approvability or commercialization of the particular product candidate and could adversely affect the success of our business. In addition, the information we choose to publicly disclose regarding a particular study or clinical trial is based on what is typically extensive information, and you or others may not agree with what we determine is material or otherwise appropriate information to include in our disclosure. If the interim, top-line or preliminary data that we report differ from actual results, or if others, including regulatory authorities, disagree with the conclusions reached, our ability to obtain approval for, and commercialize, our product candidates may be harmed, which could harm our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects. Further, disclosure of interim, top-line or preliminary data by us or by our competitors could result in volatility in the price of our common stock.

Undesirable or clinically unmanageable side effects observed in our clinical trials for our product candidates could occur and cause us or regulatory authorities to interrupt, delay or halt our clinical trials and could result in a more restrictive labeling or the delay or denial of regulatory approval by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. We have observed SAEs and AEs in our trials of envu, and as more patients become exposed to envu over longer periods of time, we expect to see additional SAEs and AEs emerge. Further, long term treatment with envu continues to be evaluated in OLE trials, and we anticipate additional AEs and SAEs will continue to accumulate. Certain conditions occur more frequently in patients with psoriasis compared to the general population. Examples include obesity, cardiovascular disease, psoriatic arthritis and depression. Immune modulating treatments including envu may result in increasing susceptibility to various infections, including serious or life-threatening infections, and there is a theoretical risk with immune-modulating agents that dampening immune responses could increase the risk of malignancies. Other TYK2 inhibitors, such as deucravacitinib (marketed as Sotyktu), which is approved for the treatment of adults with PsO, have shown AEs such as hypersensitivity reactions, infections, tuberculosis, malignancy and rhabdomyolysis. The label for deucravacitinib includes a warning concerning the potential for JAK-related AEs, such as cardiovascular and thrombotic events. We have observed, and expect that additional AEs and SAEs consistent with known side effects of TYK2 inhibition may emerge, in our ongoing and future clinical trials of envu. The most common AEs observed in our Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials that were considered related to envu treatment by the principal investigator include headaches, upper respiratory tract infections, nasopharyngitis, rash, nausea and acne. We continue to evaluate the safety profile of envu in our ongoing Phase 2 OLE and Phase 3 program. If AEs, SAEs or other side effects are observed in any of our ongoing or future clinical trials that are atypical of, or more severe than, the known side effects of the respective class of agents that each of our product candidates are a part of, we may have difficulty recruiting participants to our clinical trials, participants may drop out of our trials, or we may be required to abandon those trials or our development efforts of one or more product candidates altogether. If such effects are more severe or less reversible than we expect, or not reversible at all, we may decide or be required to perform additional studies or to halt or delay further clinical development of envu, A-005 or any future product candidates, which could result in the delay or denial of regulatory approval by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities. ?If envu fails to demonstrate an acceptable benefit/risk profile, versus current approved therapies or others in clinical development, then our opportunity to disrupt the current standard of care may be limited. AEs and SAEs that emerge during clinical investigation of or treatment with envu, A-005, or any future product candidates have in the past been and may in the future be deemed to be related to our product candidates. This may require longer and more extensive clinical development, or regulatory authorities may increase the amount of data and information required to approve, market, or maintain envu, A-005 or any future product candidates and could result in warnings and precautions in our product labeling or a restrictive risk evaluation and mitigation strategy ("REMS") or comparable foreign strategies. This may also result in an inability to obtain approval of envu, A-005 or any future product candidates. We, the FDA or other comparable foreign regulatory authorities, or an IRB or ethics committee, may suspend clinical trials of a product candidate at any time for various reasons, including a belief that participants in such trials are being exposed to unacceptable health risks or adverse side effects. Some potential product candidates developed in the biotechnology industry that initially showed promise in early-stage trials have later been found to cause side effects that prevented their further development. Even if the side effects do not preclude the product candidate from obtaining or maintaining regulatory approval, undesirable side effects, like those mentioned above, may limit market acceptance of the approved product due to its tolerability versus other therapies. Any of these developments could materially harm our business, financial condition, results of operations and prospects. Additionally, if any of our product candidates receives regulatory approval, and we or others later identify undesirable side effects caused by such product, a number of potentially significant negative consequences could result. For example, the FDA could require us to adopt a REMS, to ensure that the benefits of treatment with such product candidate outweigh the risks for each potential patient, which may include, among other things, a communication plan to health care practitioners, patient education, extensive patient monitoring or distribution systems and processes that are highly controlled, restrictive and more costly than what is typical for the industry. We or our collaborators may also be required to adopt a REMS or comparable foreign strategies or engage in similar actions, such as patient education, certification of health care professionals or specific monitoring, if we or others later identify undesirable side effects caused by any product that we develop alone or with collaborators. Other potentially significant negative consequences associated with AEs include: - we may be required to suspend marketing of a product, or we may decide to remove such product from the marketplace;- regulatory authorities may withdraw, suspend or change their approvals of a product;- regulatory authorities may require additional warnings on the label or limit access of a product to selective specialized centers with additional safety reporting and with requirements that patients be geographically close to these centers for all or part of their treatment; and - we may be required to create a medication guide outlining the risks of a product for patients, or to conduct post-marketing studies. Any of these events could diminish the usage or otherwise limit the commercial success of our product candidates and prevent us from achieving or maintaining market acceptance of our product candidates, if approved by the FDA or comparable foreign regulatory authorities.