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Federal Agricultural
(NYSE:AGM)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$255.00
▲(16.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and a positive earnings outlook supported by record results and continued loan-purchase growth expectations. Valuation is reasonable (P/E ~12.7 with a ~2.66% yield). The main limiter is financial risk from an extremely leveraged capital structure and cash-flow volatility relative to the debt load.
Positive Factors
Record portfolio growth
Strong growth in outstanding volume and core earnings indicates sustained demand for Farmer Mac’s lending and liquidity services. Expansion across agricultural and infrastructure portfolios can support recurring revenue and strengthen its role in rural credit markets.
Negative Factors
Highly leveraged balance sheet
Extreme leverage magnifies returns when assets perform well but increases vulnerability to funding costs, credit deterioration and market disruption. A relatively small equity base limits financial flexibility if losses rise or refinancing conditions weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record portfolio growth
Strong growth in outstanding volume and core earnings indicates sustained demand for Farmer Mac’s lending and liquidity services. Expansion across agricultural and infrastructure portfolios can support recurring revenue and strengthen its role in rural credit markets.
Read all positive factors
Federal Agricultural (AGM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.30B
Dividend Yield2.78%
Average Volume (3M)131.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth31.16%
EPS Growth7.63%
CountryUS
Employees212
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Credit Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.37
Shares Outstanding9,322,129
10 Day Avg. Volume137,092
30 Day Avg. Volume131,672
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio12.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.45
P/FCF Ratio23.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$255.00Price Target Upside16.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)19.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)$460.42M
Federal Agricultural Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through seven segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Ren...
Federal Agricultural Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance: record volumes, revenue and core earnings, robust pipelines across agriculture and infrastructure (notably renewable energy and data-center related broadband), solid capital and liquidity positions, and disciplined credit oversight. Key negatives are manageable but meaningful: quarter-to-quarter spread percentage compression due to mix and seasonality, increases in delinquencies and substandard assets concentrated in parts of agricultural finance, incremental allowances and provisions tied to rapid portfolio growth, and macro risks (higher input costs and geopolitical uncertainty) that could pressure producer margins. On balance, the positives—record growth, diversified momentum across segments, strong capital buffers, and proactive risk management—outweigh the headwinds described.Positive Updates
Record Quarter Results
Delivered an all-time high quarter: outstanding business volume approached $35.0 billion (reported $34.8B), revenue approximately $110 million, and core earnings approximately $52 million ( $4.74 per diluted share). Total revenues increased ~14% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Spread Compression and Mix Impact
Net effective spread percentage was 116 bps, modestly below 117 bps YoY and down from 122 bps in Q4. Management cited fewer days in the quarter and a mix shift toward higher-return but lower-spread AgVantage securities and lower contribution from the investment portfolio as causes of compression.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarter Results
Delivered an all-time high quarter: outstanding business volume approached $35.0 billion (reported $34.8B), revenue approximately $110 million, and core earnings approximately $52 million ( $4.74 per diluted share). Total revenues increased ~14% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that loan purchase growth should continue, supported by a robust pipeline that drove $1.5 billion of net new business volume in Q1 and brought outstanding business volume to $34.8 billion, helping produce record quarterly revenue of ~$110 million and core earnings of ~$52 million ($4.74 per diluted share) while delivering a 17% ROE that management expects to maintain; they reiterated a long‑term efficiency ratio target of 30% and a disciplined capital plan (core capital $1.7 billion, Tier 1 13%, $663 million or 62% above statutory requirements, having returned $32 million of capital this quarter). Guidance called out continued segment growth — farm & ranch approvals approaching $1 billion (≈30% above 2025) with $384 million of net farm loan purchase growth and AgVantage up $325 million; infrastructure up $717 million sequentially to $12.6 billion (renewable energy +$445 million to $2.9 billion, broadband +$158 million to $1.7 billion, power & utility +$115 million) — and management expects a construction‑related rush in H1 tied to H.R.1 (July 4 start) with growth extending into next year and stable, market‑driven growth beyond 2027. They also noted balance‑sheet actions and headwinds/offsets: net effective spread dollars were a record $102 million (116 bps), Q1 provision was $4.3 million (allowance $40.1 million), 90‑day delinquencies 52 bps, ~ $2 million of charge‑offs, planned utilization of the remaining ~$30 million tax credit carryback in Q2, expected ~$3 million annualized benefit from calling ~$500 million of debt, and ongoing hedging/funding strategies that management expects will be accretive to spread and returns.Federal Agricultural Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.40B | 1.32B | 1.62B | 1.42B | 755.02M | 447.70M |
| Gross Profit | 423.90M | 388.56M | 363.69M | 350.20M | 308.31M | 245.88M |
| EBITDA | 280.46M | 255.72M | 258.10M | 253.10M | 226.40M | 172.59M |
| Net Income | 228.98M | 207.39M | 207.19M | 200.00M | 178.14M | 136.09M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 39.29B | 35.51B | 31.32B | 29.52B | 27.33B | 25.12B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 20.46B | 18.48B | 12.48B | 11.34B | 13.05B | 11.07B |
| Total Debt | 34.69B | 30.82B | 29.30B | 27.69B | 25.65B | 23.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 37.44B | 33.79B | 29.84B | 28.11B | 26.06B | 23.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.49B | 1.41B | 1.27B | 1.21B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 310.06M | 80.06M | 607.37M | 375.80M | 809.27M | 436.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 310.06M | 80.06M | 612.65M | 375.80M | 809.27M | 436.41M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.29B | -3.81B | -1.68B | -1.96B | -3.04B | -1.10B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 5.99B | 3.64B | 1.21B | 1.61B | 2.19B | 534.63M |
Federal Agricultural Technical Analysis
Positive
219.11
Price Trends
212.35
Positive
192.44
Positive
177.93
Positive
Market Momentum
1.97
Positive
51.59
Neutral
16.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 219.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 229.84, above the 50-day MA of 212.35, and above the 200-day MA of 177.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGM.
Federal Agricultural Risk Analysis
Federal Agricultural disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Federal Agricultural reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Federal Agricultural Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | $2.30B | 12.12 | 13.13% | 2.96% | 31.16% | 7.63% | |
68 Neutral | $5.89B | 16.61 | 25.76% | ― | 17.65% | 43.92% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
58 Neutral | $1.02B | 3.07 | 5.33% | 6.44% | 0.84% | -12.02% | |
56 Neutral | $2.26B | 5.77 | 42.65% | 11.44% | -1.65% | -53.21% | |
52 Neutral | $2.33B | -2.77 | -1.66% | ― | ― | ― |
* Financial Sector Average
AGM
Federal Agricultural
222.64
20.20
9.98%
WU
Western Union
7.21
-0.41
-5.39%
ENVA
Enova International
237.30
115.55
94.91%
FINV
FinVolution Group
4.02
-3.86
-49.01%
LU
Lufax Holding
1.27
-1.69
-57.09%
Federal Agricultural Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Federal Agricultural reshapes leadership with new EVP roles
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Farmer Mac’s board promoted Robert J. Maines, a 30-year financial services veteran who has led operations since 2021, to Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer effective August 17, 2026. His appointment, wi...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Farmer Mac Declares Quarterly Common and Preferred Dividends
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Farmer Mac’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.60 per share on all three classes of its common stock, payable on September 30, 2026, to shareholders of record as of September 15, 2026. The board also approved quar...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Farmer Mac Posts Record Quarterly Results and Growth
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Farmer Mac reported record second quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, including outstanding business volume of $37.2 billion, up 22% year-over-year, and net interest income of $118.1 million, also up 22%. Core ear...
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Federal Agricultural to Discuss Second-Quarter 2026 Results
Neutral
Jul 17, 2026
On July 16, 2026, Farmer Mac announced the scheduling of a conference call to discuss its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, signaling forthcoming disclosure on recent performance in its agricultural finance operations. ...
Executive/Board Changes
Federal Agricultural accelerates CEO transition to Carpenter
Neutral
Jun 8, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Farmer Mac’s board accelerated the leadership transition first outlined in 2025, confirming that President and Chief Operating Officer Zachary N. Carpenter will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer on July 1, 2026, suc...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Federal Agricultural declares quarterly dividend on Series I preferred
Positive
Jun 3, 2026
On June 3, 2026, Farmer Mac’s Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2769097 per share on its 6.875% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series I, covering the period from May 19, 2026, through July 17, 2026. The dividend will be...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Farmer Mac Completes Series I Preferred Stock Offering
Positive
May 19, 2026
On May 19, 2026, Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, or Farmer Mac, completed an exempt public offering of 4,000,000 shares of its 6.875% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series I. The issuance, conducted under an offering circular, reflects...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Farmer Mac Shareholders Back Directors, Auditor and Pay
Positive
May 18, 2026
At its May 14, 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, Farmer Mac shareholders elected ten directors to one-year terms under its split Class A and Class B voting structure, while four presidentially appointed directors, including Board Chair Lowell L...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.