Affirm Holdings (AFRM) Risk Analysis

We maintain an allowance for credit losses at a level sufficient to estimate expected credit losses based on evaluating known and inherent risks in our loan portfolio. This estimate is highly dependent upon the reasonableness of our assumptions and the predictability of the relationships that drive the results of our valuation methodologies. Management has processes in place to monitor these judgments and assumptions, including review by our credit committee and our asset-liability committee, but these processes may not ensure that our judgments and assumptions are correct. The method for calculating the best estimate of expected credit losses takes into account our historical experience, adjusted for current conditions, and our judgment concerning the probable effects of relevant observable data, trends, and market factors. Changes in such estimates can significantly affect the allowance and provision for losses. It is possible that we will experience credit losses that are different from our current estimates. If our estimates and assumptions prove incorrect and our allowance for credit losses is insufficient, we may incur net charge-offs in excess of our reserves, or we could be required to increase our provision for credit losses, either of which would adversely affect our results of operations.

The Sarbanes-Oxley Act requires, among other things, that we maintain effective internal control over financial reporting and disclosure controls and procedures. The process of designing and implementing effective internal controls and disclosure controls is a continuous effort that requires us to anticipate and react to changes in our business and the economic and regulatory environment and to expend significant resources to maintain a system of internal controls that is adequate to satisfy our reporting obligations as a public company. In addition, testing and maintaining internal controls may divert our management's attention from other matters that are important to our business. If we are unable to establish and maintain appropriate internal control over financial reporting and disclosure controls and procedures, it could cause us to fail to meet our reporting obligations on a timely basis, result in material misstatements in our consolidated financial statements and harm our operating results. Any failure to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting or disclosure controls and procedures could have an adverse effect on our business and operating results, and cause a decline in the price of our Class A common stock. We also could become subject to investigations by the stock exchange on which our securities are listed, the SEC or other regulatory authorities, which could require additional financial and management resources.

In recent fiscal quarters, we have retained more loans on our balance sheet funded through our consolidated securitizations and warehouse lines. For these loans and any future loans facilitated through our platform that we purchase from our originating bank partners that may be held for investment on our balance sheet, we bear the entire credit risk in the event of consumer default with respect to these loans. In addition, non-performance, or even significant underperformance, of the loan receivables that we own could have an adverse effect on our business. Additionally, our funding model relies on a variety of funding arrangements, including warehouse credit facilities, securitization trusts, and forward flow arrangements with a variety of funding sources. Any significant underperformance of the loans facilitated through our platform may adversely impact our relationship with such funding sources and result in their loss of confidence in us, which could lead to the termination of our existing funding arrangements, which would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, and future prospects. In addition, in connection with certain capital funding arrangements with third party loan buyers, we have entered into risk sharing agreements where we may be required to make a payment to the loan buyer if actual losses on the loans sold exceed agreed-upon expected losses, subject to a cap based on a percentage of the principal balance of loans sold. Refer to "Note 13. Fair Value of Financial Assets and Liabilities" for additional information. If the loans subject to any existing or future risk sharing agreements underperform the expectations set forth in those agreements, we would be required to make payments under the agreements in proportion to the loan underperformance, which may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, and our relationships with existing and prospective third party loan buyers.

Since the beginning of March 2023, there have been public reports of instability at various financial institutions, with certain financial institutions being severely impacted. Financial services institutions are interrelated with our business as a result of trading, clearing, counterparty or other relationships. We routinely execute transactions with counterparties in the financial services industry, including commercial banks, brokers and dealers, investment banks and other institutions. Many of these transactions expose us to credit risk in the event of a default by a counterparty. In addition, our credit risk may be exacerbated when collateral cannot be foreclosed upon or is liquidated at prices not sufficient to recover the full amount of the credit or derivative exposure due. Any such losses could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.

In our asset-backed securitizations, warehouse credit facilities, and forward flow agreements, we make numerous representations and warranties concerning the characteristics of the loans we transfer and/or sell (depending on the type of facility), including representations and warranties that the loans meet certain eligibility requirements of those facilities and investors. If those representations and warranties are incorrect, we may be required to repurchase certain of the financed loans. Failure to repurchase so-called "ineligible loans" when required could constitute an event of default under our financing agreements and lead to the potential termination of the applicable facility. We can provide no assurance, however, that we would have adequate cash or other qualifying assets available to make such repurchases. Such repurchases could be limited in scope, relating to small pools of loans, or larger in scope, across multiple pools of loans. If we were required to make such repurchases and if we do not have adequate liquidity to fund such repurchases, it would have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, and future prospects.

Borrowers may not view the loans facilitated through our platform as having the same significance as other credit obligations arising under more traditional circumstances. Personal loans facilitated through our platform are not secured by any collateral, not guaranteed or insured by any third-party, and not backed by any governmental authority in any way. Therefore, if we purchase the loans from our originating bank partners after they are originated, we are limited in our ability to collect on these loans if a consumer is unwilling or unable to repay them. A consumer's ability to repay their loans can be negatively impacted by increases in their payment obligations to other lenders under mortgage, credit card, and other loans resulting from increases in base lending rates or structured increases in payment obligations. If a consumer neglects his or her payment obligations on a loan facilitated through our platform or chooses not to repay his or her loan entirely, it will have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, future prospects, and cash flows.

Our ability to collect on loans is dependent on the consumer's continuing financial stability, and consequently, collections can be adversely affected by a number of factors, including job loss, divorce, death, illness, or personal bankruptcy. Furthermore, the application of various federal and state laws, including federal and state bankruptcy and debtor relief laws, may limit the amount that can be recovered on the loans. It is possible that a higher percentage of consumers will seek protection under bankruptcy or debtor relief laws as a result of the current inflationary environment, the possibility of a recession and market volatility. Federal, state, or other restrictions could impair our ability to collect amounts owed and due on the loans facilitated through our platform, reduce income received from the loans facilitated through our platform, or negatively affect our ability to comply with our current financing arrangements or obtain financing with respect to the loans facilitated through our platform. In the event that initial attempts to contact a consumer are unsuccessful, certain delinquent loans may be referred to a collection agent that will service the loans using its own servicing platform. Further, if collection action must be taken in respect of a loan, the collection agent may charge additional amounts, which may reduce the amounts of collections that we receive. Moreover, because our servicing fees in connection with the services we provide depend on the collectability of the loans facilitated through our platform, if there is an unexpected significant increase in the number of consumers who fail to repay their loans or an increase in the principal amount of the loans that are not repaid, we will be unable to collect our entire servicing fee for the loans facilitated through our platform for which we act as servicer, and our business, results of operations, financial condition, future prospects, and cash flows could be materially and adversely affected. In addition, if a consumer defaults on a loan, we may be unsuccessful in our efforts to collect the amount of the loan. As such, our originating bank partners could decide to originate fewer loans through our platform. An increase in defaults precipitated by these risks and uncertainties could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, and future prospects.

Our high-velocity, capital efficient funding model is integral to the success of our commerce platform. To support this model and the growth of our business, we must maintain a variety of funding arrangements, including warehouse credit facilities, securities repurchase agreements, securitization trusts, and forward flow arrangements with a diverse set of funding sources. If we are unable to maintain access to, or to expand, our network and diversity of funding arrangements, our business, results of operations, financial condition, and future prospects could be materially and adversely affected. We cannot guarantee that these funding arrangements will continue to be available on favorable terms or at all, and our funding strategy may change over time and depends on the availability of such funding arrangements. Disruptions in the credit markets or other factors, such as the current inflationary environment and rising interest rates, could adversely affect the availability, diversity, cost, and terms of our funding arrangements. Since the beginning of March 2023, there have been public reports of instability at certain financial institutions. Despite the steps taken to date by U.S. and foreign agencies and institutions, the follow-on effects of this instability are unknown and may lead to disruptions to the businesses and operations of our funding sources. Although we are not substantially dependent on a single financing source, if multiple financing sources were to be unable to fulfill their funding obligations to us, it could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In addition, our funding sources may reassess their exposure to our industry and either curtail access to uncommitted financing capacity, fail to renew or extend facilities, or impose higher costs to access our funding. Further, our debt financing and loan sale forward flow facilities are generally fixed term in nature, with term lengths ranging between one to three years, during which we have access to committed capital pursuant to such facilities. If our existing funding arrangements are not renewed or replaced or our existing funding sources are unwilling or unable to provide funding to us on terms acceptable to us, or at all, we would need to secure additional sources of funding or reduce our operations significantly. The availability and diversity of our funding arrangements depends on various factors and are subject to numerous risks, many of which are outside of our control. The agreements governing our funding arrangements require us to comply with certain covenants. A breach of such covenants or other events of default under our funding agreements could result in the reduction or termination of our access to such funding, could increase our cost of such funding or, in some cases, could give our lenders the right to require repayment of the loans prior to their scheduled maturity. Certain of these covenants are tied to our consumer default rates, which may be significantly affected by factors, such as economic downturns or general economic conditions, that are beyond our control and beyond the control of individual consumers. In addition, our revolving credit facility contains (a) certain covenants and restrictions that limit our and our subsidiaries' ability to, among other things: incur additional debt; create liens on certain assets; pay dividends on or make distributions in respect of their capital stock or make other restricted payments; consolidate, merge, sell, or otherwise dispose of all or substantially all of their assets; and enter into certain transactions with their affiliates, and (b) certain financial maintenance covenants that require us and our subsidiaries to not exceed a specified leverage ratio, to maintain a minimum tangible net worth, and to maintain a minimum level of unrestricted cash while any borrowings under the revolving credit facility are outstanding. In the future, we may seek to further access the capital markets to obtain capital to finance growth. However, our future access to the capital markets could be restricted due to a variety of factors, including a deterioration of our earnings, cash flows, balance sheet quality, or overall business or industry prospects, adverse regulatory changes, a disruption to or volatility or deterioration in the state of the capital markets, or a negative bias toward our industry by market participants. Due to the negative bias toward our industry, certain financial institutions have restricted access to available financing by participants in our industry, and we may have more limited access to institutional capital than other businesses. Future prevailing capital market conditions and potential disruptions in the capital markets may adversely affect our efforts to arrange additional financing on terms that are satisfactory to us, if at all. If adequate funds are not available, or are not available on acceptable terms, we may not have sufficient liquidity to fund our operations, make future investments, take advantage of acquisitions or other opportunities, or respond to competitive challenges and this, in turn, could adversely affect our ability to advance our strategic plans. In addition, if the capital and credit markets experience volatility, and the availability of funds is limited, third-parties with whom we do business may incur increased costs or business disruption and this could adversely affect our business relationships with such third-parties, which in turn could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, and future prospects.

We believe that one of our core competitive advantages, and a core tenet of our platform, is our ability to work with an originating bank partner to use our data-driven risk model to enable the effective underwriting of loans facilitated through our platform and to accurately and effectively price credit risk. Any deterioration in the performance of the loans facilitated through our platform, or unexpected losses on such loans, would materially and adversely affect our business and results of operations. Loan repayment underperformance would impact our interest-related and gain-on-sale income generated from loans we purchase from our originating bank partners, which are underwritten in accordance with the bank's credit policy. Additionally, incremental charge-offs may affect future credit decisioning, growth of transaction volume, and the amount of provisions for underperforming loans we will need to take. Traditional lenders rely on credit bureau scores and require large amounts of information to approve a loan. We believe that one of our competitive advantages is the ability of our risk model, deployed in accordance with our originating bank partners' credit model and its underwriting guidelines when loans are made, to efficiently score and price credit risk within seconds at point-of-sale based on five top-of-mind data inputs. However, these inputs may be inaccurate or may not accurately reflect a consumer's creditworthiness or credit risk. In addition, our ability to enable the effective underwriting of the loans we originate directly or purchase from our originating bank partners and accurately price credit risk (and, as a result, the performance of such loans) is significantly dependent on the ability of our proprietary, learning-based scoring system, and the underlying data, to quickly and accurately evaluate a customer's credit profile and risk of default. The information we use in developing the risk model and price risk may be inaccurate or incomplete as a result of error or fraud, both of which may be difficult to detect and avoid. Numerous factors, many of which can be unexpected or beyond our control, can adversely affect a customer's credit risk and our risks. There may be risks that exist, or that develop in the future, including market risks, economic risks, and other external events, that we have not appropriately anticipated, identified, or mitigated, such as risks from inadequate or failed processes, people or systems, natural disasters, and compliance, reputational, or legal matters, both as they relate directly to us as well as that relate to third-parties with whom we contract or otherwise do business. Any changes to our risk model may be ineffective and the performance of our risk model may decline. If our risk model does not effectively and accurately model the credit risk of potential loans facilitated through our platform, greater than expected losses may result on such loans and, as a result, our business, results of operations, financial condition, and future prospects could be materially and adversely affected. In addition, if the risk model we use contains errors or is otherwise ineffective, our reputation and relationships with consumers, our funding sources, our originating bank partners, and our merchants could be harmed, we may be subject to liability, and our ability to access our funding sources may be inhibited. Our ability to attract consumers to our platform and to build trust in our platform and products is significantly dependent on our ability to effectively evaluate consumer credit profiles and likelihoods of default. If any of the credit risk or fraud models we use contain programming or other errors or is ineffective or the data provided by consumers or third-parties is incorrect or stale, or if we are unable to obtain accurate data from consumers or third-parties (such as credit reporting agencies), the loan pricing and approval process through our platform could be negatively affected, resulting in mispriced or misclassified loans or incorrect approvals or denials of loans. This could damage our reputation and relationships with consumers, our funding sources, our originating bank partners, and our merchants, which could have a material and adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, and future prospects. Additionally, if we make errors in the development, validation, or implementation of any of the models or tools used in connection with the loans facilitated through our platform, and those that we purchase and securitize or sell to investors, those investors may experience higher delinquencies and losses. We may also be subject to liability to those investors if we misrepresented the characteristics of the loans sold because of those errors. Moreover, future performance of the loans facilitated through our platform could differ from past experience because of macroeconomic factors, policy actions by regulators, lending by other institutions, or reliability of data used in the underwriting process. To the extent that past experience has influenced the development of our risk model and proves to be inconsistent with future events, delinquency rates and losses on loans could increase. Errors in our models or tools and an inability to effectively forecast loss rates could also inhibit our ability to sell loans to investors or draw down on our funding arrangements, which could limit our ability to purchase (or directly originate) new loans and could have a material and adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, and future prospects.

Our ability to make scheduled payments of the principal of, to pay interest on or to refinance our indebtedness, including our 0% convertible senior notes due 2026 (the "2026 Notes"), depends on our future performance, which is subject to economic, financial, competitive and other factors beyond our control. Our business may not continue to generate cash flow from operations in the future sufficient to service our debt and make necessary capital expenditures. If we are unable to generate such cash flow, we may be required to adopt one or more alternatives, such as selling assets, restructuring debt or obtaining additional equity capital on terms that may be onerous or highly dilutive. Our ability to refinance our indebtedness will depend on the capital markets and our financial condition at such time. We may not be able to engage in any of these activities or engage in these activities on desirable terms, which could result in a default on our debt obligations.

Holders will have the right to require us to repurchase their 2026 Notes upon the occurrence of a fundamental change at a fundamental change repurchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the 2026 Notes to be repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid special interest, if any. In addition, upon conversion of the 2026 Notes, we will be required to make cash payments for each $1,000 in principal amount of 2026 Notes converted of at least the lesser of $1,000 and the sum of the daily conversion values as described in the indenture governing the 2026 Notes. However, we may not have enough available cash or be able to obtain financing at the time we are required to make repurchases of notes surrendered therefor or pay cash with respect to the 2026 Notes being converted. In addition, our ability to repurchase the 2026 Notes or to pay cash upon conversions of the 2026 Notes may be limited by law, by regulatory authority or by agreements governing our future indebtedness. Our failure to repurchase 2026 Notes at a time when the repurchase is required or to pay any cash payable on future conversions of the 2026 Notes would constitute a default under the indenture governing the 2026 Notes. A default under the indenture governing the 2026 Notes or the fundamental change itself could also lead to a default under agreements governing our future indebtedness. If the repayment of the related indebtedness were to be accelerated after any applicable notice or grace periods, we may not have sufficient funds to repay the indebtedness and repurchase the 2026 Notes or make cash payments upon conversions thereof.