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American Eagle
(NYSE:AEO)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▼(-7.35% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/11/26
The score is supported primarily by improving profitability and a low valuation with a meaningful dividend. It is held back by weakening cash-flow conversion and rising leverage, and the technical setup remains bearish with the stock trading well below major moving averages. Earnings-call guidance and Aerie-led momentum are a positive offset, but tariffs, inventory cost pressure, and AE brand softness remain key risks.
Positive Factors
Aerie growth
Aerie is showing strong, broad-based customer and sales momentum, including significant comparable growth and a larger revenue base. Its expansion across apparel, stores, digital, and social channels can provide a durable growth engine that offsets weakness elsewhere in the portfolio.
Negative Factors
American Eagle brand weakness
Weakness in the core American Eagle banner creates a durable portfolio challenge because the company must repair product assortment, store conversion, and customer demand at a major brand. Planned closures and remodels also indicate that recovery requires meaningful execution and investment.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Aerie growth
Aerie is showing strong, broad-based customer and sales momentum, including significant comparable growth and a larger revenue base. Its expansion across apparel, stores, digital, and social channels can provide a durable growth engine that offsets weakness elsewhere in the portfolio.
Read all positive factors
American Eagle Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Operating Income by Segment
Reveals the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas contribute most to the bottom line and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Reveals the profitability of each business segment, highlighting which areas contribute most to the bottom line and where there might be opportunities or challenges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmerican Eagle (AEO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.52B
Dividend Yield3.33%
Average Volume (3M)5.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.5
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth8.21%
EPS Growth89.24%
CountryUS
Employees45,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.00
Shares Outstanding167,573,330
10 Day Avg. Volume6,310,399
30 Day Avg. Volume5,049,545
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.60
Price to Book (P/B)2.37
Price to Sales (P/S)0.73
P/FCF Ratio20.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.60Price Target Upside11.18% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)2.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.85B
American Eagle Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) operates as a distinct fashion and lifestyle retail enterprise, offering a wide array of clothing, accessories, and personal care items. Its primary offerings are sold under the established American Eagle and ...
How the Company Makes Money
AEO makes money primarily by selling branded apparel and accessories directly to consumers through two main channels: (1) physical retail stores and (2) online/digital commerce. Revenue is generated at the point of sale from merchandise transactio...
American Eagle Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 28, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a largely positive operating picture driven by exceptional Aerie performance, strong top‑line growth (+10%) and notable margin expansion (+860 bps gross margin improvement). Management acknowledges targeted weaknesses at the American Eagle banner — primarily women’s bottoms and store conversion — and near‑term headwinds from tariffs, elevated inventory costs, and higher advertising spend. However, management has clear remediation plans (assortment fixes, marketing reallocation, distribution improvements) and balance sheet and liquidity capacity to support execution. On balance, the significant growth and profitability gains led by Aerie and the company’s action plans outweigh the addressable AE challenges and tariff uncertainty.Positive Updates
Consolidated Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Total revenue of $1.2 billion, up 10% year‑over‑year; consolidated comparable sales +8%.
Negative Updates
American Eagle Brand Softness
AE revenue down ~2% YoY for the quarter; AE comparable sales declined (driven by store weakness) with digital flat; women's business, specifically women's bottoms and denim, underperformed and was the primary driver of AE's sales decline.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consolidated Revenue and Comparable Sales Growth
Total revenue of $1.2 billion, up 10% year‑over‑year; consolidated comparable sales +8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided Q2 consolidated comparable sales to mid‑ to high‑single digits, with Aerie expected to continue growing in the high‑teens to low‑20s and American Eagle to be flat to down low‑single digits; Q2 operating income is forecast at $45–$50 million (which includes an incremental ~$20 million tariff headwind vs. last year) and SG&A is expected to be up in the mid‑teens. They plan a 10% tariff rate in Q2 and 15% for the balance of the year, have filed roughly $190 million in tariff refund claims (anticipating about $140 million net cash benefit that is not included in guidance), and expect full‑year operating profit of $390–$410 million on consolidated comparable sales in the mid‑single digits; full‑year CapEx is planned at $250–$260 million. For context, Q1 results that inform the outlook included revenue of $1.2 billion (up 10%), consolidated comps +8%, Aerie sales +34% (Aerie comps +25%), gross profit $456 million (gross margin 38.2%, +860 bps), ending inventory up 27% in cost (units +5%), Q1 CapEx $61 million, $74 million returned to shareholders in Q1, $103 million cash and ~ $620 million total liquidity.American Eagle Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
61
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.70B | 5.50B | 5.33B | 5.26B | 4.99B | 5.01B |
| Gross Profit | 2.12B | 1.81B | 1.88B | 1.81B | 1.54B | 1.83B |
| EBITDA | 693.46M | 465.46M | 658.86M | 477.02M | 404.98M | 756.43M |
| Net Income | 336.86M | 191.98M | 329.38M | 170.04M | 125.14M | 419.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.28B | 4.04B | 3.83B | 3.56B | 3.42B | 3.79B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 147.95M | 238.92M | 358.96M | 454.09M | 170.21M | 434.77M |
| Total Debt | 1.92B | 1.73B | 1.45B | 1.19B | 1.37B | 1.81B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.52B | 2.35B | 2.06B | 1.82B | 1.82B | 2.36B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.76B | 1.69B | 1.77B | 1.74B | 1.60B | 1.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 168.48M | 195.39M | 254.26M | 406.27M | 145.92M | 69.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 238.15M | 456.18M | 476.80M | 580.71M | 406.30M | 303.67M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -42.35M | -202.65M | -217.51M | -287.43M | -261.38M | -594.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 157.50M | -326.85M | -301.91M | -109.47M | -407.89M | -125.20M |
American Eagle Technical Analysis
Negative
16.73
Price Trends
16.91
Negative
16.92
Negative
19.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.31
Positive
37.30
Neutral
31.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.52, below the 50-day MA of 16.91, and below the 200-day MA of 19.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AEO.
American Eagle Risk Analysis
American Eagle disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. American Eagle reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
American Eagle Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $6.16B | 12.24 | 39.59% | 6.86% | 4.73% | 8.69% | |
79 Outperform | $6.73B | 12.09 | 20.72% | ― | 11.01% | 24.97% | |
70 Outperform | $7.56B | 6.29 | 33.13% | 3.16% | 1.05% | 44.82% | |
66 Neutral | $6.03B | 17.12 | 45.94% | ― | 10.35% | 146.52% | |
64 Neutral | $2.52B | 7.51 | 20.04% | 3.33% | 8.21% | 89.24% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
50 Neutral | $223.06M | 18.19 | 4.21% | ― | 3.61% | 7189.81% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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American Eagle Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
American Eagle Announces CFO Transition and Strategic Guidance
Positive
Jul 1, 2026
On July 1, 2026, American Eagle Outfitters announced that longtime Chief Financial Officer Mike Mathias will step down from his executive roles and move into a full‑time, non‑executive strategic advisor position to CEO Jay Schottenstei...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
American Eagle expands stock incentive plan, reaffirms leadership
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
At its June 26, 2026 annual meeting, American Eagle Outfitters shareholders approved an amended and restated 2023 Stock Award and Incentive Plan, adding 9,680,000 shares, extending the plan’s term to 2036 and raising the annual compensation ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.