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Agree Realty
(NYSE:ADC)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$75.00
▲(0.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals (steady growth, solid profitability, and manageable leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with raised AFFO guidance and record occupancy. These positives are tempered by weaker recent cash-conversion metrics, a technically weaker price trend (below key moving averages with negative MACD), and a relatively high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Exceptional Occupancy and Portfolio Quality
Near-full occupancy and substantial investment-grade exposure support dependable rent collection and reduce vacancy risk across the portfolio. The scale of nearly 2,900 properties across all 50 states also provides diversification, while the national tenant base reinforces ADC’s durable market position.
Negative Factors
Weak Recent Cash Conversion
The sharp deterioration in cash-flow-to-income coverage signals that recent reported earnings have converted into cash less efficiently than in prior periods. Although absolute operating and free cash flow remain solid, weaker conversion can constrain internally funded growth and warrants monitoring for persistence.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Exceptional Occupancy and Portfolio Quality
Near-full occupancy and substantial investment-grade exposure support dependable rent collection and reduce vacancy risk across the portfolio. The scale of nearly 2,900 properties across all 50 states also provides diversification, while the national tenant base reinforces ADC’s durable market position.
Read all positive factors
Agree Realty Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Number of Leases
Tracks the number of active leases in the portfolio, indicating property scale, tenant diversification, and the potential stability of rental income.
Tracks the number of active leases in the portfolio, indicating property scale, tenant diversification, and the potential stability of rental income.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAgree Realty (ADC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.39B
Dividend Yield4.92%
Average Volume (3M)1.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.2
Beta (1Y)0.02
Revenue Growth17.61%
EPS Growth13.11%
CountryUS
Employees90
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.94
Shares Outstanding124,379,310
10 Day Avg. Volume1,670,879
30 Day Avg. Volume1,707,442
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-36.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)11.10
P/FCF Ratio15.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue15.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda18.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$79.65Price Target Upside7.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)$835.64M
Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agree Realty Corporation functions as a publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), concentrating its efforts on the acquisition and development of commercial properties. These assets are primarily net-leased to leading companies within t...
How the Company Makes Money
Agree Realty primarily makes money by owning income-producing commercial properties and collecting contractual rent from tenants under net lease agreements. Under a net lease structure, tenants generally pay rent and are also responsible for many ...
Agree Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Management reported record occupancy, 4.9% quarterly per-share earnings growth, raised 2026 AFFO guidance, strong liquidity, conservative leverage, record development activity, successful capital raising, and favorable leasing and disposition results. The principal challenges were higher spot capital costs, a reduced investment volume target, elevated third-quarter dead deal costs, uncertain cap-rate conditions, and pressure among distressed and lower-tier retailers. Management presented these challenges as reasons for greater selectivity and repricing while maintaining its growth outlook.Positive Updates
Record Portfolio Occupancy and Scale
The portfolio remained at a company-record 99.8% occupied and was approaching 2,900 properties across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Investment-grade exposure was approximately 65% of annualized base rents.
Negative Updates
Higher Spot Cost of Capital
Management said the changing macroeconomic environment has increased the company's spot cost of capital, highlighted as 6.8% in the presentation.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Portfolio Occupancy and Scale
The portfolio remained at a company-record 99.8% occupied and was approaching 2,900 properties across all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Investment-grade exposure was approximately 65% of annualized base rents.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agree Realty reduced 2026 investment volume guidance to approximately $1.6 billion, expects total disposition volume of $100 million-$150 million versus its prior range of $50 million-$100 million, and raised full year 2026 AFFO per share guidance to a range of $4.58-$4.59, implying year-over-year growth of nearly 6% at the midpoint, with an assumption of 15 basis points of credit and occupancy loss for the year; free cash flow after the dividend is expected to exceed $140 million this year, a more than 10% year-over-year increase. For 2027, management expects mid-single AFFO growth per share and double-digit operational returns, with a $250 million annual development and developer funding platform commencements objective, assumes 0 changes in the short end, the long end of the curve, and stock price, and is not assuming any further expansion of cap rates; it expects cap rates to expand another 25 basis points on top of the Q3 expansion of 30 basis points.Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 810.28M | 718.40M | 617.10M | 537.50M | 429.81M | 339.32M |
| Gross Profit | 570.93M | 630.25M | 542.25M | 470.78M | 377.53M | 298.26M |
| EBITDA | 650.53M | 617.06M | 543.26M | 463.95M | 386.24M | 295.67M |
| Net Income | 241.27M | 204.35M | 189.20M | 169.96M | 152.44M | 122.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.95B | 9.80B | 8.49B | 7.77B | 6.71B | 5.23B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 80.56M | 16.30M | 6.40M | 10.91M | 27.76M | 43.25M |
| Total Debt | 3.74B | 3.35B | 2.83B | 2.45B | 1.98B | 1.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.01B | 3.53B | 2.98B | 2.57B | 2.08B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.94B | 6.27B | 5.51B | 5.20B | 4.63B | 3.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 523.96M | 504.14M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 572.04M | 504.14M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.62B | -1.54B | -885.41M | -1.27B | -1.62B | -1.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.12B | 1.05B | 445.31M | 869.01M | 1.24B | 1.18B |
Agree Realty Technical Analysis
Negative
74.32
Price Trends
69.47
Negative
72.58
Negative
73.45
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.00
Negative
36.24
Neutral
43.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 74.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 66.13, above the 50-day MA of 69.47, and above the 200-day MA of 73.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADC.
Agree Realty Risk Analysis
Agree Realty disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agree Realty reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agree Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $8.39B | 33.24 | 3.72% | 4.92% | 17.61% | 13.11% | |
73 Outperform | $7.98B | 19.96 | 8.70% | 5.94% | 6.54% | -3.45% | |
72 Outperform | $2.33B | 19.09 | 7.36% | 6.92% | 9.65% | 2.28% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | $52.37B | 40.40 | 3.36% | 5.86% | 10.76% | 33.50% | |
63 Neutral | $1.74B | 76.50 | 1.33% | 5.34% | 21.86% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $1.70B | 16.55 | 8.93% | 7.06% | 9.28% | 41.75% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ADC
Agree Realty
64.49
-7.51
-10.43%
GTY
Getty Realty
27.47
0.99
3.73%
NNN
NNN REIT
40.72
0.76
1.89%
O
Realty Income
55.35
-1.73
-3.02%
FCPT
Four Corners Property
21.19
-1.97
-8.53%
NTST
NETSTREIT
16.47
-1.98
-10.71%
Agree Realty Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Agree Realty Details Share Count and Potential Dilution
Neutral
Oct 2, 2026
On October 2, 2026, Agree Realty Corporation reported its weighted‑average common shares outstanding for the three‑ and nine‑month periods ended September 30, 2026, detailing both basic and diluted share counts. The disclosure cl...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Agree Realty announces $400 million senior notes offering
Positive
Sep 22, 2026
On September 22, 2026, Agree Limited Partnership completed an underwritten public offering of $400 million in 5.650% senior unsecured notes due 2036, fully guaranteed by Agree Realty Corporation and certain subsidiaries. The notes, sold to underwr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.