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Agree Realty
(NYSE:ADC)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$83.00
â–²(2.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a strong, guidance-raising earnings call with excellent operating metrics (occupancy and AFFO growth). Offsetting factors are weak near-term technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a valuation headwind from a high P/E despite a healthy dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Exceptional occupancy and tenant quality
Near-full occupancy and substantial investment-grade exposure support dependable rent collection and reduce vacancy and credit risk. This strengthens the durability of recurring income across the diversified 2,830-property portfolio.
Negative Factors
Weak recent free cash flow conversion
The sharp deterioration in TTM free cash flow conversion introduces uncertainty around cash available after investment spending and dividends. If persistent, it could constrain internally funded growth and increase reliance on external capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Exceptional occupancy and tenant quality
Near-full occupancy and substantial investment-grade exposure support dependable rent collection and reduce vacancy and credit risk. This strengthens the durability of recurring income across the diversified 2,830-property portfolio.
Read all positive factors
Agree Realty (ADC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.23B
Dividend Yield4.24%
Average Volume (3M)1.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)40.0
Beta (1Y)<0.01
Revenue Growth18.06%
EPS Growth10.08%
CountryUS
Employees90
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.86
Shares Outstanding124,379,310
10 Day Avg. Volume1,070,524
30 Day Avg. Volume1,080,869
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-36.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.27
Price to Sales (P/S)11.10
P/FCF Ratio15.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$85.63Price Target Upside6.19% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)1.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)$836.05M
Agree Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Agree Realty Corporation functions as a publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), concentrating its efforts on the acquisition and development of commercial properties. These assets are primarily net-leased to leading companies within t...
How the Company Makes Money
Agree Realty makes money primarily by owning real estate and collecting contractual rent under long-term net lease agreements, where tenants are generally responsible for property-level operating expenses such as taxes, insurance, and maintenance....
Agree Realty Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented multiple strong operational and financial achievements: record investment activity, robust earnings growth (core FFO +7.5%, AFFO +7.4% YoY), upgraded AFFO guidance (nearly 6% growth), accelerating development/DFP activity, excellent occupancy (99.8%), and a well-hedged, liquid balance sheet. The company has some execution- and market-related watch items — reliance on forward equity settlements for leverage metrics, a modeled (but modest) credit/occupancy loss, elevated near-term ground lease concentration, and general interest rate uncertainty — but management has taken active hedging and liquidity steps to mitigate these risks. Overall, the positive operational momentum, guidance raises, and conservative balance sheet positioning outweigh the manageable risks discussed.Positive Updates
Record Investment Activity
Invested a company record of ~$500 million across 102 properties in Q2, including $451 million of acquisitions across 82 retail net lease assets (highest quarterly activity since COVID). Acquired assets had a weighted average cap rate of 7% and weighted average lease term of 11.2 years. Approximately 13.5% of ABR acquired derived from ground leases and >73% of ABR acquired was to investment grade retailers (up from 60% last quarter).
Negative Updates
Dependence on Forward Equity Settlements
Excluding unsettled forward equity, net debt to recurring EBITDA is 5.2x (vs. 3.7x pro forma). Approximately $1.1B of outstanding forward equity (with roughly $425M maturing in October) means leverage and liquidity metrics are partially dependent on successful forward equity settlements or alternative capital actions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Investment Activity
Invested a company record of ~$500 million across 102 properties in Q2, including $451 million of acquisitions across 82 retail net lease assets (highest quarterly activity since COVID). Acquired assets had a weighted average cap rate of 7% and weighted average lease term of 11.2 years. Approximately 13.5% of ABR acquired derived from ground leases and >73% of ABR acquired was to investment grade retailers (up from 60% last quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Agree updated 2026 guidance to $1.6–$1.8 billion of investment volume (midpoint up ~24% vs. initial guidance) after a company‑record Q2 investment of ~$500M (including $451M of acquisitions across 82 retail net‑lease assets at a weighted avg cap rate of 7% and weighted avg lease term of 11.2 years; ~13.5% of acquired ABR from ground leases and >73% from investment‑grade tenants). They raised full‑year AFFO/share guidance $0.02 at the midpoint to $4.57–$4.59 (implying nearly 6% AFFO growth at the midpoint) and assume 25 bps of fully loaded credit & occupancy loss for the year (vs. prior 25–50 bps; YTD = 10 bps, Q2 = 6 bps) with occupancy at 99.8%. Balance‑sheet metrics supporting the guidance include liquidity of ~ $1.9B (including >$750M available on the revolver), pro‑forma net debt/recurring EBITDA ~3.7x (5.2x excluding unsettled forward equity), net debt/enterprise value ~29%, fixed‑charge coverage ~4.1x, ~$300M of forward starting swaps effectively fixing base rate near 4.1%, expected free cash flow after dividend >$140M (>10% YoY), and a maintained monthly dividend of $0.267 (annualized >$3.20) with a Q2 AFFO payout ratio of 70%.Agree Realty Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 779.62M | 718.40M | 617.10M | 537.50M | 429.81M | 339.32M |
| Gross Profit | 544.60M | 630.25M | 542.25M | 470.78M | 377.53M | 298.26M |
| EBITDA | 628.17M | 617.06M | 543.26M | 463.95M | 386.24M | 295.67M |
| Net Income | 225.04M | 204.35M | 189.20M | 169.96M | 152.44M | 122.27M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.59B | 9.80B | 8.49B | 7.77B | 6.71B | 5.23B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 12.52M | 16.30M | 6.40M | 10.91M | 27.76M | 43.25M |
| Total Debt | 3.92B | 3.35B | 2.83B | 2.45B | 1.98B | 1.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.07B | 3.53B | 2.98B | 2.57B | 2.08B | 1.81B |
| Stockholders Equity | 6.52B | 6.27B | 5.51B | 5.20B | 4.63B | 3.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 533.96M | 504.14M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 533.96M | 504.14M | 431.97M | 391.60M | 362.12M | 246.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.73B | -1.54B | -885.41M | -1.27B | -1.62B | -1.39B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.21B | 1.05B | 445.31M | 869.01M | 1.24B | 1.18B |
Agree Realty Technical Analysis
Negative
80.63
Price Trends
76.56
Negative
75.81
Negative
74.35
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.93
Positive
38.89
Neutral
33.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 80.63 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 76.66, above the 50-day MA of 76.56, and above the 200-day MA of 74.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.93 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADC.
Agree Realty Risk Analysis
Agree Realty disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Agree Realty reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Agree Realty Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $9.09B | 20.94 | 14.39% | 3.73% | 5.13% | 28.20% | |
73 Outperform | $9.23B | 39.99 | 3.61% | 3.90% | 18.06% | 10.08% | |
73 Outperform | $8.80B | 22.67 | 8.70% | 4.86% | 6.54% | -3.45% | |
71 Outperform | $10.27B | 23.47 | 13.28% | 3.59% | 8.04% | 25.59% | |
70 Outperform | $5.61B | 34.68 | 6.24% | 2.99% | 8.07% | 106.29% | |
66 Neutral | $5.30B | 16.32 | 11.27% | 4.38% | -5.84% | 395.39% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ADC
Agree Realty
74.39
3.56
5.02%
NNN
NNN REIT
46.24
6.26
15.65%
KRG
Kite Realty Group
26.44
5.53
26.42%
FRT
Federal Realty
117.56
25.13
27.19%
BRX
Brixmor Property
29.74
3.87
14.96%
PECO
Phillips Edison & Company
39.88
6.83
20.65%
Agree Realty Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Agree Realty Updates Share Counts and Dilution Metrics
Neutral
Jul 2, 2026
On July 2, 2026, Agree Realty Corporation reported its weighted-average common shares outstanding for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026, detailing the figures used for basic and diluted earnings per share calculations. The disclosure, w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.