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Alcoa (AA) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
AA Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- $1.82
- Consensus EPS
- $1.51
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +$0.31
- One Year Ago EPS
- -$0.02
AA Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- $3.54B
- Expected Revenue
- $3.77B
- Beat/Miss
- Missed by -$233.54M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +21.52%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/15/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Thursday, October 15, 2026
Alcoa's next earnings date is estimated for January 20, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly positive, supported by strong operational execution, production records, improved Pinjarra performance, solid cash generation, favorable alumina and aluminum market fundamentals, progress on the AliGroup acquisition, and the Massena East monetization agreement. However, management also addressed a fatality, lower metal prices, sequentially lower adjusted net income, higher carbon costs, mining approval delays, softer Chinese alumina conditions, and uncertainty around supply recovery. The highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.
For the full year, Alcoa made only minor adjustments for transformation expenses, depreciation, interest expense and capital expenditures; for the fourth quarter, it expects higher production and shipments in both segments, while alumina performance elements are expected to be flat, excluding pricing, with maintenance moving between regions completely covered by improved shipment performance, and Aluminum costs are expected to increase by $30 million, including about $10 million more in carbon prices. The company expects to release about 10 days at least of working capital going into the fourth quarter, expects Western Australia mining approvals by mid-2027 after incorporating an additional 6 months of mining in current areas, and is thinking that probably 1.5 million metric tons of smelting capacity will come online in Indonesia next year against a 75 million metric ton market.
- Strong Third-Quarter Operational PerformanceAlcoa reported strong third-quarter performance, including six year-to-date production records, an approximately 15,000 metric ton sequential increase in aluminum production, completion of the Alumar smelter restart, and a significant performance recovery at the Pinjarra refinery.
- Higher Alumina Segment Revenue and EBITDAThird-party Alumina revenue increased 7% to $680 million, driven by higher realized alumina prices and higher alumina shipping volumes. Alumina adjusted EBITDA increased $95 million due to higher realized alumina prices and improved operational performance at Pinjarra.
- Solid Net Income and Earnings Per ShareThird-quarter net income attributable to Alcoa increased to $483 million from $407 million in the prior quarter, while earnings per common share increased to $1.81.
- Strong Adjusted EBITDA and Aluminum ProductivityAdjusted EBITDA was $789 million, with strong operational performance and higher alumina prices partially offsetting lower metal prices. The Aluminum segment delivered productivity gains from higher molten production, improved stability, and disciplined cost performance.
- Robust Cash Generation and LiquidityAlcoa ended the quarter with $4.4 billion in cash, generated $643 million of cash from operations and $472 million of free cash flow in the third quarter, and generated approximately $600 million of free cash flow during the first nine months of 2026.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Shareholder ReturnsReturn on equity for the first nine months of 2026 was 25.3%, and Alcoa returned $80 million in cash to shareholders through its regular quarterly dividend.
- AliGroup Financing CompletedAlcoa completed $2.6 billion of debt financing in September and canceled the bridge facility. The financing is intended to fund the cash consideration for the $3.1 billion AliGroup acquisition and reduced execution risk by providing certainty around funding.
- Progress Toward AliGroup Closing and IntegrationSouth32 shareholders approved the AliGroup transaction, regulatory approvals were progressing across relevant jurisdictions, and Alcoa remained confident in achieving an expected closing in the first half of 2027. Alcoa has established an integration management office, is preparing to operate the assets from day one, and has an 18-month transition services agreement with South32.
- Massena East Monetization AgreementAlcoa reached a definitive agreement to sell a portion of the Massena East site for potential cash proceeds of up to $315 million. The company expects $50 million to $65 million at closing, anticipated within six months, with the remaining consideration expected before the end of the decade. The transaction is the first supporting Alcoa's target to generate $500 million to $1 billion from asset monetization by 2030.
- Constructive Alumina Market Outside ChinaThe alumina market tightened outside China during the quarter, with the API increasing sequentially to approximately $370 per metric ton. Alcoa expects further tightening in the fourth quarter and into 2027, driven by announced curtailments, project delays, and uncertainty around new supply additions in Indonesia.
- Tight Aluminum Market FundamentalsGlobal aluminum inventories remained historically low at approximately 42 days of consumption, while North America and Europe remained structurally short of metal. Regional premiums moderated from elevated levels but remained supported by low inventories and regional deficits.
- Solid Order Book and Product DemandAlcoa's order book remained solid, with significantly less volume available for sale than at the same point last year. Most products were sold out or tightly committed, with packaging and electrical markets leading demand and transportation remaining resilient.
- Positive Fourth-Quarter Operating OutlookAlcoa expects strong operating performance across both segments in the fourth quarter, with higher production and shipments in both segments as refining stability is maintained and the smelting portfolio continues to deliver incremental output and cost discipline.
- Completed San Ciprian and Alumar RestartsAlcoa completed the restarts of both the San Ciprian and Alumar smelters, supporting greater portfolio stability and productivity.
- Mining Contingency PlanningIn response to the delayed Western Australia mining approvals process, Alcoa incorporated an additional six months of mining in current areas into its plans and stated that approvals by mid-2027 are not expected to materially affect supply, quality, or cost. The company also has contingency plans available if needed.
- Expected Working Capital ReleaseBased on historical working-capital patterns, management expects to release about 10 days of working capital going into the fourth quarter, with the amount dependent on year-end pricing.
- Potential Additional Asset MonetizationsManagement stated that two other assets could follow Massena East and that Alcoa would focus on those opportunities next, although the assets have not been publicly named.
AA Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 1.56- | 1.26 | ― | ― |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 1.511.82 | -0.02 | 9200.00% (+1.84) | |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 2.252.12 | 0.39 | 443.59% (+1.73) | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 1.531.40 | 2.15 | -34.88% (-0.75) | |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 0.931.26 | 1.04 | 21.15% (+0.22) | |
| Oct 22, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | -0.14-0.02 | 0.57 | -103.51% (-0.59) | |
| Jul 16, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 0.320.39 | 0.16 | 143.75% (+0.23) | |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 1.682.15 | -0.81 | 365.43% (+2.96) | |
| Jan 22, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 0.951.04 | -0.56 | 285.71% (+1.60) | |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 0.250.57 | -1.14 | 150.00% (+1.71) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
