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Full Truck Alliance
(NYSE:YMM)
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Rating:84Outperform
Price Target:
$10.50
▲(14.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/19/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial quality (high profitability, very low leverage, and robust free cash flow) and highly attractive valuation (very low P/E with a meaningful dividend). The earnings call supports the fundamentals with improving operational KPIs and strong cash generation, though total revenue growth remains modest. Technical indicators are the main offset, reflecting weaker price positioning versus key moving averages and subdued momentum.
Positive Factors
Network effects and operating scale
Rising participation on both sides of the marketplace strengthens liquidity and matching efficiency. Higher order density, faster matching and improved fulfillment can reinforce user retention and create durable network advantages.
Negative Factors
Modest total revenue growth
Overall revenue is growing much more slowly than orders and transaction services, indicating pressure in other revenue streams or revenue per order. Continued modest expansion could constrain operating leverage and reduce the benefit of platform scale.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Network effects and operating scale
Rising participation on both sides of the marketplace strengthens liquidity and matching efficiency. Higher order density, faster matching and improved fulfillment can reinforce user retention and create durable network advantages.
Read all positive factors
Full Truck Alliance (YMM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.17B
Dividend Yield3%
Average Volume (3M)6.04M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.2
Beta (1Y)1.05
Revenue Growth9.98%
EPS Growth11.75%
CountryUS
Employees8,251
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)26.67
Shares Outstanding932,510,200
10 Day Avg. Volume6,598,553
30 Day Avg. Volume6,035,649
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.42
Price to Book (P/B)1.95
Price to Sales (P/S)6.26
P/FCF Ratio17.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$12.59Price Target Upside36.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.63B
Full Truck Alliance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., along with its subsidiaries, operates a prominent digital logistics platform across the People's Republic of China. This platform's core purpose is to seamlessly connect cargo owners (shippers) with truck drivers, str...
How the Company Makes Money
Full Truck Alliance primarily makes money by monetizing transactions and activity on its digital freight marketplace that matches shippers with trucking capacity. Its main revenue streams include: (1) Freight brokerage/commission-style revenues ea...
Full Truck Alliance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Nov 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple operational and commercial wins: double-digit order and user growth, record fulfillment rate and faster matching, a strong 33.1% expansion in transaction service revenues, improved profitability and robust cash generation (RMB 2.15B operating cash, RMB 33.4B cash balance). Management also advanced monetization (94.7% commission coverage), new business initiatives (Qmove, LTL, autonomous pilots) and AI deployments. Key headwinds included modest overall revenue growth (4.4% YoY), fuel-price-driven demand volatility earlier in the quarter, natural disaster-related near-term disruptions, electrification limitations for long-haul, and transition-related shifts in brokerage and credit models that may cause near-term cash/revenue mix variability. Overall, positive operating momentum and strong cash position outweigh the transitory and structural challenges cited by management.Positive Updates
Strong Order and User Growth
Fulfilled orders reached 68.5 million, up 12.7% year-over-year. Average shipper MAUs were 3.57 million, up 12.8% year-over-year, and monthly active truckers responding to orders rose nearly 5% year-over-year, indicating expanding two-sided engagement and network effects.
Negative Updates
Modest Overall Revenue Growth
Total net revenue growth was relatively modest at 4.4% year-over-year (RMB 3.38 billion), lagging the stronger order and transaction service growth, suggesting pressure on other revenue lines or lower average revenue per order in some segments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Order and User Growth
Fulfilled orders reached 68.5 million, up 12.7% year-over-year. Average shipper MAUs were 3.57 million, up 12.8% year-over-year, and monthly active truckers responding to orders rose nearly 5% year-over-year, indicating expanding two-sided engagement and network effects.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's forward guidance emphasized continued investment in AI and product rollout to drive sustained order and monetization growth, aiming to build on Q2 metrics including 68.5 million fulfilled orders (up 12.7% YoY), 3.57 million average shipper MAUs (up 12.8% YoY), a record 47% fulfillment rate (up 6.3 ppts YoY and 2.9 ppts QoQ; direct shipper fulfillment >65%, long‑haul up ~7 ppts), median matching time of 5 minutes, transaction service revenue of RMB 1.77 billion (33.1% YoY; 52% of total net revenues), total net revenues of RMB 3.38 billion (up 4.4% YoY), net income RMB 1.35 billion (up 6.3% YoY), non‑GAAP net income RMB 1.43 billion (up 6%), operating cash flow RMB 2.15 billion and free cash flow RMB 2.04 billion, and a cash balance of RMB 33.4 billion; they reiterated expectations for sustained high‑quality growth in transaction service revenue (backed by 94.7% commission coverage and nearly 5% YoY growth in monthly active responding truckers), continued improvement in fulfillment rate and order quality through ecosystem governance, cautious optimism on long‑term order growth, stronger cash generation as the mix shifts to asset‑light businesses, and ongoing shareholder returns via quarterly cash dividends.Full Truck Alliance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
95
Very Positive
Cash Flow
88
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.64B | 12.49B | 11.24B | 8.44B | 6.73B | 4.66B |
| Gross Profit | 7.94B | 7.87B | 9.73B | 7.20B | 3.22B | 2.12B |
| EBITDA | 4.37B | 4.25B | 2.55B | 2.41B | -74.14M | -3.57B |
| Net Income | 4.13B | 4.41B | 3.07B | 2.21B | 406.76M | -3.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 44.64B | 44.35B | 41.29B | 39.35B | 36.70B | 34.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.47B | 17.20B | 20.81B | 18.29B | 26.22B | 25.92B |
| Total Debt | 25.57M | 35.35M | 65.13M | 84.47M | 80.52M | 9.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.62B | 3.05B | 3.15B | 3.45B | 2.89B | 2.87B |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.78B | 40.06B | 37.68B | 35.60B | 33.66B | 31.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.49B | 4.50B | 2.90B | 2.17B | -101.21M | -254.64M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.56B | 4.63B | 2.97B | 2.27B | -15.52M | -211.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -453.60M | -2.72B | -2.42B | 553.74M | 2.13B | -14.40B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -296.94M | -1.66B | -1.52B | -1.17B | -1.33B | 8.90B |
Full Truck Alliance Technical Analysis
Negative
9.21
Price Trends
8.73
Positive
8.63
Positive
9.45
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Positive
41.13
Neutral
10.63
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YMM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.32, above the 50-day MA of 8.73, and below the 200-day MA of 9.45, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.63 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for YMM.
Full Truck Alliance Risk Analysis
Full Truck Alliance disclosed 96 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Full Truck Alliance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
The Group incurred in the past, and may incur in the future, net losses. Q4, 2023
2.
The Group's collection and recovery efforts may become less effective and may also subject it to regulatory risks and reputational risks. Q4, 2023
Full Truck Alliance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $9.17B | 2.23 | 10.44% | 2.87% | 9.98% | 11.75% | |
77 Outperform | $7.24B | -3,276.14 | -0.26% | ― | 35.91% | 94.31% | |
76 Outperform | $6.52B | 2.46 | 115.83% | ― | 10.81% | 3147.75% | |
70 Outperform | $579.04M | -19.10 | -14.05% | ― | 11.85% | 47.54% | |
65 Neutral | $3.48B | -20.64 | -12.16% | ― | 31.25% | 56.23% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $14.60B | 23.87 | 9.00% | ― | 21.45% | 430.18% |
* Technology Sector Average
YMM
Full Truck Alliance
8.80
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-18.09%
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Full Truck Alliance Corporate Events
Full Truck Alliance Grows Q1 2026 Revenue on Surging Transaction Services but Profit Declines
May 21, 2026
Full Truck Alliance reported unaudited results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, showing total net revenues of RMB2.85 billion, up 5.5% year on year, driven mainly by a 33.1% jump in transaction service revenues and higher freight matching rev...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.