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Aurora Innovation
(NASDAQ:AUR)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▼(-4.68% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/24/26
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance (heavy losses and substantial cash burn relative to a small revenue base), despite a low-leverage balance sheet. Earnings-call updates and guidance show meaningful operational progress and strong growth targets, but execution and funding/dilution risk remain significant. Technicals are mildly supportive, while valuation provides limited support due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Safety and operational validation
The large driverless-mile record and reported utilization advantage provide meaningful evidence that Aurora’s system is progressing beyond laboratory testing. Demonstrated commercial operation can strengthen customer confidence, support fleet adoption, and improve the scalability of usage-based autonomous trucking revenue.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Heavy negative operating and free cash flow means Aurora is not yet funding its development and commercialization program internally. Continued burn can require additional financing, limit strategic flexibility, and increase the company’s exposure to execution delays before revenue reaches a self-sustaining scale.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Safety and operational validation
The large driverless-mile record and reported utilization advantage provide meaningful evidence that Aurora’s system is progressing beyond laboratory testing. Demonstrated commercial operation can strengthen customer confidence, support fleet adoption, and improve the scalability of usage-based autonomous trucking revenue.
Read all positive factors
Aurora Innovation (AUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.80B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)32.87M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.29
Revenue Growth400.00%
EPS Growth1.19%
CountryUS
Employees1,900
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.47
Shares Outstanding1,708,146,100
10 Day Avg. Volume37,396,715
30 Day Avg. Volume32,874,543
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.01
Price to Book (P/B)3.30
Price to Sales (P/S)2353.92
P/FCF Ratio-11.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.63Price Target Upside101.47% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.49
Revenue Forecast (FY)$14.77M
Aurora Innovation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aurora Innovation, Inc. is a U.S.-based company specializing in autonomous driving technology. Its primary focus involves creating the Aurora Driver, an advanced platform that integrates various self-driving hardware components, software systems, ...
How the Company Makes Money
Aurora’s monetization is centered on commercializing the Aurora Driver for on-road operations, primarily in trucking. The company’s revenue model is intended to be tied to the deployment and use of its autonomous driving system rather than vehicle...
Aurora Innovation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized major operational milestones — Aurora Driver 2 launch, strong customer momentum, safety record (≈440k driverless miles, zero Aurora-attributed collisions), industrial partnerships (Roush, Volvo), and a solid cash balance (~$1.2B). Management provided growth guidance (2026 revenue $14M–$16M, ~400% YoY at midpoint) and clear fleet targets (200 trucks by year-end with ~20–25 expected in Q3). However, the company remains early in commercial revenue, with a very large operating loss ($266M in Q2), high ongoing cash burn (~$190M–$220M per quarter guidance), and ramp/manufacturing and market execution risks. Overall, operational and commercial progress and a strong liquidity position balance significant near-term financial losses and execution risks.Positive Updates
Aurora Driver 2 launch and second-generation hardware
Debuted Aurora Driver 2 and a new fleet of driverless trucks (International LT series). Second-generation commercial hardware kit engineered for 1 million miles, extends FirstLight LiDAR range to ~1 km (providing >34 seconds of reaction time at highway speeds), and is expected to drive a 50%+ reduction in Aurora Driver hardware costs.
Negative Updates
Very small near-term revenue versus large operating loss
Second quarter 2026 revenue totaled only $2 million while operating loss (including stock-based compensation) was $266 million, highlighting a wide gap between current top-line and operating expenses.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Aurora Driver 2 launch and second-generation hardware
Debuted Aurora Driver 2 and a new fleet of driverless trucks (International LT series). Second-generation commercial hardware kit engineered for 1 million miles, extends FirstLight LiDAR range to ~1 km (providing >34 seconds of reaction time at highway speeds), and is expected to drive a 50%+ reduction in Aurora Driver hardware costs.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aurora guided 2026 revenue of $14 million to $16 million (roughly +400% year‑over‑year at the midpoint), with revenue back‑loaded (Q4 contributing over half) and an exit‑2026 fleet target of ~200 driverless trucks (translating to an ~ $80 million TaaS revenue run rate); they expect 20–25 driverless International trucks in operation by end‑Q3. Key financial and operational metrics: Q2 revenue $2M, operating loss $266M (incl. $60M stock‑based comp), R&D ex‑SBC $164M, SG&A $37M, cost of revenue $7M, ~440,000 driverless miles to June with 100% on‑time performance and zero Aurora‑attributed collisions, Q2 operating cash use ~$225M and capex $31M, 2026 quarterly cash use target ~$190–220M (with ~ $150M full‑year capex), ended Q2 with nearly $1.2B in cash & short‑term investments after issuing 30M shares for net $215M; product and production metrics include Gen‑2 kit engineered for 1M miles, >34 seconds of highway reaction time from 1 km FirstLight LiDAR, expected >50% hardware‑cost reduction, Roush ramp to a 1,000‑truck annual run rate in October, and Volvo projecting >300 driverless trucks exiting 2027 (and $3B autonomous revenue in five years).Aurora Innovation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.00M | 3.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 68.00M | 82.00M |
| Gross Profit | 352.00M | -14.00M | -676.00M | -716.00M | -609.00M | -615.00M |
| EBITDA | -858.00M | -786.00M | -727.00M | -775.00M | -716.00M | -744.00M |
| Net Income | -900.00M | -816.00M | -748.00M | -796.00M | -1.72B | -755.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.17B | 2.34B | 2.14B | 2.23B | 2.00B | 3.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.22B | 1.28B | 1.22B | 1.20B | 1.10B | 1.61B |
| Total Debt | 82.00M | 157.00M | 121.00M | 122.00M | 136.00M | 147.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 214.00M | 203.00M | 263.00M | 250.00M | 217.00M | 348.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.95B | 2.14B | 1.88B | 1.99B | 1.78B | 3.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -751.00M | -612.00M | -645.00M | -613.00M | -523.00M | -611.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -679.00M | -581.00M | -611.00M | -598.00M | -508.00M | -563.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -46.00M | -245.00M | -172.00M | 8.00M | -852.00M | 249.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 657.00M | 834.00M | 492.00M | 831.00M | 11.00M | 1.54B |
Aurora Innovation Technical Analysis
Negative
5.77
Price Trends
6.30
Negative
6.50
Negative
5.52
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
33.99
Neutral
14.25
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.77 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.19, below the 50-day MA of 6.30, and above the 200-day MA of 5.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.25 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AUR.
Aurora Innovation Risk Analysis
Aurora Innovation disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aurora Innovation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aurora Innovation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
56 Neutral | $6.43B | -1.56 | -40.43% | ― | 5.00% | -36.49% | |
49 Neutral | $10.80B | -11.24 | -43.12% | ― | 400.00% | 1.19% | |
47 Neutral | $973.79M | -72.75 | -210.69% | ― | 56.22% | 93.61% | |
46 Neutral | $112.42M | -0.99 | -118.08% | ― | 41.09% | 9.05% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AUR
Aurora Innovation
5.39
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0.00%
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Aurora Innovation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
Aurora Showcases Commercial Driverless Trucking at Investor Day
Positive
Sep 23, 2026
Aurora Innovation hosted its 2026 Analyst and Investor Day in Dallas, Texas on September 23, giving investors a firsthand look at its commercial driverless trucking operations and offering industry-first passenger rides in Aurora Driver-powered tr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.