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Exxon Mobil
(NYSE:XOM)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$206.00
â–²(28.24% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/26/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance and a strong earnings-call outlook (robust cash generation, conservative leverage, clear Guyana/Permian execution and ongoing structural cost savings). Offsetting factors are mixed near-term technical momentum and a valuation that is only moderately attractive (P/E ~20.7 with a ~2.6% yield), plus risks cited around geopolitics, regulatory pressure, and some operational/logistics constraints.
Positive Factors
Integrated scale and revenue growth
Revenue growth alongside solid gross and net margins indicates broad operating strength across ExxonMobil’s integrated energy and chemical platform. Its upstream, refining, trading, and chemicals businesses can capture value across the chain, supporting durable earnings capacity beyond any single activity.
Negative Factors
Commodity-cycle margin normalization
Profitability remains healthy but is materially below the unusually strong 2022–2024 period, demonstrating sensitivity to commodity prices, refining spreads, and chemical margins. This cyclicality can limit earnings visibility and reduce returns even when production and revenue continue to grow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Integrated scale and revenue growth
Revenue growth alongside solid gross and net margins indicates broad operating strength across ExxonMobil’s integrated energy and chemical platform. Its upstream, refining, trading, and chemicals businesses can capture value across the chain, supporting durable earnings capacity beyond any single activity.
Read all positive factors
Exxon Mobil Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Oil-Equivalent Production
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.
Measures the total volume of oil and gas produced, providing insight into resource extraction efficiency, reserve management, and the company's capacity to generate revenue from its core operations.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyExxon Mobil (XOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$753.34B
Dividend Yield2.25%
Average Volume (3M)12.74M
Price to Earnings (P/E)23.6
Beta (1Y)-0.05
Revenue Growth10.58%
EPS Growth9.80%
CountryUS
Employees57,900
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Integrated
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.77
Shares Outstanding4,111,912,000
10 Day Avg. Volume11,381,920
30 Day Avg. Volume12,736,536
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.24
Price to Book (P/B)2.00
Price to Sales (P/S)1.60
P/FCF Ratio21.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.81
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.69
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.71
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$178.06Price Target Upside10.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)13.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$422.59B
Exxon Mobil Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Exxon Mobil Corporation is a global energy firm that undertakes the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources across its domestic operations and international territories. The company organizes its vast activities into three prim...
How the Company Makes Money
Exxon Mobil makes money primarily by selling energy and chemical products across three major operating segments: Upstream, Energy Products, and Chemical Products.
1) Upstream (oil and natural gas production): Exxon Mobil generates revenue by prod...
Exxon Mobil Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong net-positive operational and financial picture: record and industry-leading financial metrics, material cash-flow generation, major upstream successes (notably Guyana), Permian production and technology gains, robust refining and specialty product performance, and sizable structural cost savings and organizational integration. Key challenges include the ongoing Middle East conflict (temporary ~10% upstream loss), supply-chain and logistics constraints, regional political/regulatory risks (European windfall tax risk), and some entitlement/acreage uncertainty in Guyana. Overall the positive operational execution, cash generation and cost transformation substantially outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Quarterly Financial Performance
Reported industry-leading earnings of $14.5 billion, cash flow from operations of $23.6 billion, and free cash flow of more than $17 billion; reduced net debt by more than $7 billion; cash capital expenditures were roughly $7 billion; returned over $9 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.
Negative Updates
Middle East Conflict and Production Disruption
Ongoing conflict in the Middle East led to a temporary loss of approximately 10% of upstream production and continued market disruption; Strait of Hormuz transits remain inhibited, increasing shipping uncertainty and slowing restoration of normal flows.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Quarterly Financial Performance
Reported industry-leading earnings of $14.5 billion, cash flow from operations of $23.6 billion, and free cash flow of more than $17 billion; reduced net debt by more than $7 billion; cash capital expenditures were roughly $7 billion; returned over $9 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company gave concrete near‑ and medium‑term guidance and milestones: Errea Wittu (the fifth Guyana FPSO) set sail and is on track for start‑up by year‑end, Longtail is on a path to FID and a ninth FPSO is being evaluated, and Guyana delivered ~900,000 b/d this quarter having recovered roughly $55 billion of investment (cost recovery capped at 75% with a 50/50 split thereafter), driving an inflection to free cash flow and management expects ~2x the level of free cash flow in 2030 vs. 2025. Permian volume guidance remains on track after a Q2 record of >1.8 million BOE/d (in line with the full‑year guide), with >80 (≈83) 4‑mile wells drilled YTD and ~1,200 wells >3 miles since 2020; LNG FIDs (Mozambique, Papua/PNG) are targeted later this year. Organizational and cost‑efficiency targets include integration of ~31,000 operations staff across >150 sites in 48 countries (effective July 1), ERP/process rollouts scaling in 2027, cumulative structural cost savings of $16.3 billion since 2019 (targeting $20 billion by 2030), and ongoing operational improvements (U.S. Gulf Coast refinery reliability >95%, chemical margins +~180% vs. Q1). Recent financial metrics cited that set the basis for capital allocation and returns include Q2 earnings of ~$14.5 billion, cash flow from operations of $23.6 billion, free cash flow >$17 billion, cash capex ~ $7 billion, >$9 billion returned to shareholders, and a >$7 billion reduction in net debt; actions in trading/supply avoided ~ $750 million of annual disruption cost.Exxon Mobil Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
83
Very Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 361.06B | 323.90B | 339.25B | 334.70B | 398.68B | 276.69B |
| Gross Profit | 90.79B | 70.23B | 76.74B | 84.14B | 103.07B | 64.89B |
| EBITDA | 71.83B | 67.86B | 73.31B | 74.27B | 102.59B | 52.79B |
| Net Income | 32.76B | 28.84B | 33.68B | 36.01B | 55.74B | 23.04B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 464.48B | 448.98B | 453.48B | 376.32B | 369.07B | 338.92B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.59B | 10.68B | 23.03B | 31.54B | 29.64B | 6.80B |
| Total Debt | 42.37B | 43.54B | 41.71B | 41.57B | 41.19B | 47.70B |
| Total Liabilities | 198.37B | 182.35B | 182.87B | 163.78B | 166.59B | 163.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 259.38B | 259.39B | 263.70B | 204.80B | 195.05B | 168.58B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 30.55B | 23.61B | 30.72B | 33.45B | 58.39B | 36.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 59.73B | 51.97B | 55.02B | 55.37B | 76.80B | 48.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.15B | -26.54B | -19.94B | -20.04B | -14.74B | -10.23B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -36.47B | -38.47B | -42.79B | -33.53B | -39.11B | -35.42B |
Exxon Mobil Technical Analysis
Positive
160.64
Price Trends
165.76
Positive
156.11
Positive
151.88
Positive
Market Momentum
4.79
Negative
76.15
Negative
85.11
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XOM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 160.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 170.85, below the 50-day MA of 165.76, and above the 200-day MA of 151.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.15 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.11 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for XOM.
Exxon Mobil Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $460.77B | 22.27 | 10.98% | 3.02% | 12.71% | 34.53% | |
76 Outperform | $160.56B | 6.25 | 30.55% | 5.47% | 20.82% | 86.33% | |
75 Outperform | $753.34B | 23.58 | 12.68% | 2.25% | 10.58% | 9.80% | |
75 Outperform | $306.59B | 11.80 | 14.66% | 2.79% | 7.37% | 103.01% | |
70 Outperform | $115.94B | 13.26 | 21.61% | 3.11% | 6.81% | 21.88% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $131.97B | 24.77 | 9.53% | 3.93% | 15.84% | 791.90% |
* Energy Sector Average
XOM
Exxon Mobil
183.21
70.54
62.60%
BP
BP
51.32
18.24
55.13%
CVX
Chevron
233.21
83.82
56.11%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
26.16
15.13
137.26%
SHEL
Shell
108.18
35.38
48.60%
EQNR
Equinor ASA
48.82
25.33
107.86%
Exxon Mobil Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
ExxonMobil outlines factors influencing upcoming Q3 2026 results
Neutral
Oct 16, 2026
ExxonMobil released a detailed breakdown of market and planned factors expected to influence its third-quarter 2026 results relative to the second quarter, emphasizing that these estimates are limited in scope and exclude operational performance d...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and FinancingRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Exxon Mobil Issues Long-Dated Floating Rate Notes Offering
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 23, 2026, ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation and its subsidiary Exxon Mobil Corporation entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate of major investment banks for the issuance and sale of $185,883,000 of floating rate notes du...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.