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Ultrapar Participacoes SA
(NYSE:UGP)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(31.78% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (better margins and notably stronger cash generation) and a constructive earnings update highlighting record cash flow, strong profitability, and reduced leverage with shareholder returns. Valuation is also supportive (P/E ~10 and ~5.1% dividend yield). Technicals are a modest offset due to near-term softness versus the 20‑DMA despite being above longer-term averages.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Generation
The sharp improvement in operating cash generation indicates that stronger earnings are converting into liquidity, supporting debt reduction, capital investment, and shareholder distributions. This strengthens Ultrapar’s ability to fund operations internally and increases resilience across its businesses.
Negative Factors
Meaningful Leverage
Although leverage has improved, the remaining debt load still limits financial flexibility relative to a debt-free structure. If margins weaken or funding costs rise, more cash may be directed toward servicing obligations, reducing capacity for investment, distributions, or strategic initiatives.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Cash Generation
The sharp improvement in operating cash generation indicates that stronger earnings are converting into liquidity, supporting debt reduction, capital investment, and shareholder distributions. This strengthens Ultrapar’s ability to fund operations internally and increases resilience across its businesses.
Read all positive factors
Ultrapar Participacoes SA (UGP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.42B
Dividend Yield4.87%
Average Volume (3M)3.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.1
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth20.26%
EPS Growth31.82%
CountryUS
Employees11,481
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.24
Shares Outstanding1,115,849,900
10 Day Avg. Volume4,331,181
30 Day Avg. Volume3,463,788
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.38
Price to Book (P/B)1.41
Price to Sales (P/S)0.16
P/FCF Ratio14.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.94
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.61
Enterprise Value/Ebitda0.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.85Price Target Upside6.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.85
Revenue Forecast (FY)$30.94B
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ultrapar Participações S.A. (UGP) is a Brazilian company with widespread operations in gas distribution, fuel supply, and logistics/storage. Its geographical reach extends across Brazil, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela, other Latin American nations, No...
How the Company Makes Money
Ultrapar makes money primarily through the operating profits and cash distributions generated by its controlled subsidiaries. Its main revenue streams are: (1) Fuel distribution and retail: the group earns revenue from selling gasoline, ethanol, d...
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record operating cash flow, the highest-ever net income, robust consolidated EBITDA, reduced leverage to the lowest level since 2008, shareholder distributions (dividends and buyback), and solid performance at Ipiranga and Ultracargo. However, near‑term risks remain — notably Middle East‑driven supply volatility pressuring Q3 margins, working capital sensitivity to price swings, Ultragaz volume and market share challenges, and Hidrovias' year‑over‑year declines driven by a prior divestiture and higher costs. On balance, achievements and financial strength substantially outweigh the operational headwinds and short‑term uncertainties.Positive Updates
Record Operating Cash Flow
Operating cash flow of BRL 4.789 billion in Q2 2026 (BRL 4.8bn), versus BRL 939 million in Q2 2025 — a ~410% year‑over‑year increase. Excluding BRL 833 million in draft discount contracting, operating cash flow would be BRL 3.956 billion.
Negative Updates
Ipiranga Near‑Term Margin Pressure
Management expects Q3 margins to be below Q2 2026 and closer to Q1 levels due to ongoing impacts from Middle East supply disruptions and short‑term volatility despite structural gains from the crackdown on irregular operators.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Operating Cash Flow
Operating cash flow of BRL 4.789 billion in Q2 2026 (BRL 4.8bn), versus BRL 939 million in Q2 2025 — a ~410% year‑over‑year increase. Excluding BRL 833 million in draft discount contracting, operating cash flow would be BRL 3.956 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ultrapar guided that Q3 should show lower Ipiranga margins than Q2 and closer to Q1 levels (Ipiranga Q2 volumes 6.173 million m3, +8% YoY; diesel +10%, auto +6%; network 5,855 stations; Q2 recurring EBITDA BRL 2.782 billion, margin BRL 451/m3; average retail price BRL 6.14/L, taxes BRL 1.53/L, Ipiranga EBITDA ~BRL 0.36/L), while Ultragaz expects Q3 EBITDA roughly in line with Q3‑2025 (Q2 LPG volume -3% YoY; Q2 recurring EBITDA BRL 468 million, +6% YoY), Ultracargo expects Q3 similar to Q2 (avg. installed capacity 1.156 million m3, +8% YoY; sales +19%; Q2 net revenue BRL 265 million; adj. EBITDA BRL 159 million, +13% YoY), and Hidrovias expects Q3 in line with Q3‑2025 (Q2 total volume -14% due to coastal sale; continuing ops volume +5%; Q2 recurring adj. EBITDA BRL 322 million, -8% YoY; -1% vs. continuing ops). At the corporate level management reiterated capital discipline: Q2 consolidated recurring adjusted EBITDA BRL 3.657 billion, net income BRL 1.677 billion (+46% YoY), record operating cash generation BRL 4.789 billion (BRL 3.956 billion excluding BRL 833 million draft‑discount effect), CapEx BRL 570 million, net debt BRL 8.864 billion (leverage 0.9x, lowest since 2008) with a BRL 1.85 billion dividend (BRL 1.00/share, 3.8% yield) and share buyback program up to 18 million shares; management indicated a comfort leverage range around 1.0–1.5x EBITDA and noted working‑capital sensitivity of ~BRL 300 million per 10% price move (total WC swing ~BRL 3 billion).Ultrapar Participacoes SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 154.20B | 142.37B | 133.50B | 126.05B | 143.63B | 109.73B |
| Gross Profit | 12.97B | 9.36B | 8.62B | 9.32B | 7.36B | 4.90B |
| EBITDA | 10.32B | 7.81B | 5.06B | 6.36B | 4.50B | 2.76B |
| Net Income | 3.49B | 2.45B | 2.36B | 2.44B | 1.80B | 850.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 52.66B | 50.27B | 39.56B | 38.25B | 36.44B | 39.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.24B | 7.02B | 4.38B | 6.22B | 6.14B | 4.08B |
| Total Debt | 19.53B | 21.82B | 15.35B | 13.30B | 13.28B | 17.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 32.66B | 32.54B | 23.73B | 24.22B | 24.27B | 28.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.93B | 15.66B | 15.16B | 13.51B | 11.71B | 10.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.82B | 1.52B | 1.95B | 2.56B | 785.74M | 1.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.37B | 3.48B | 3.74B | 3.85B | 2.00B | 2.59B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.08B | -2.80B | -6.39B | -1.02B | 7.90B | 724.14M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -198.41M | 433.28M | -1.23B | -2.49B | -6.91B | -3.36B |
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Technical Analysis
Positive
6.45
Price Trends
6.77
Positive
6.03
Positive
5.46
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Positive
60.12
Neutral
49.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UGP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.45 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.44, below the 50-day MA of 6.77, and above the 200-day MA of 5.46, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for UGP.
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $15.31B | 13.62 | 18.17% | 5.50% | 83.34% | 123.75% | |
72 Outperform | $8.42B | 12.13 | 20.80% | 4.87% | 20.26% | 31.82% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
58 Neutral | $737.34M | -58.02 | 8.43% | 5.01% | ― | ― | |
57 Neutral | $4.54B | 20.66 | 95.27% | 1.35% | 11.40% | ― | |
55 Neutral | $1.83B | -11.38 | -13.21% | 2.36% | 7.56% | 58.21% |
* Energy Sector Average
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes SA
7.77
4.11
112.47%
DK
Delek US Holdings
75.40
44.08
140.76%
WKC
World Kinect
36.43
11.22
44.53%
SUN
Sunoco
69.89
22.23
46.65%
APC
ARKO Petroleum Corp. Class A
15.77
-1.09
-6.48%
Ultrapar Participacoes SA Corporate Events
Ultrapar to Host Ultra Day 2026 Investor Event in São Paulo
Oct 2, 2026
On October 1, 2026, Ultrapar Participações S.A. announced it would hold its annual Ultra Day event for investors and analysts on October 2, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. BRT in São Paulo. The meeting is designed to present and discuss the comp...
Ultrapar Files Form 6-K With Q2 2026 Financials and Board Actions
Aug 13, 2026
Ultrapar Holdings Inc., the U.S.-listed vehicle of Ultrapar Participações S.A., has filed its Form 6-K for August 2026, providing individual and consolidated interim financial information for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The disclosu...
Ultrapar Formalizes New Market-Aligned Disclosure and Trading Policies
Aug 13, 2026
Ultrapar Holdings Inc., a Brazilian diversified holding company active in fuel distribution, chemicals and logistics, reports as a foreign private issuer under U.S. securities rules and Brazil’s capital markets framework. The group emphasize...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.