Ternium SA (TX) AI Stock Analysis

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Ternium SA

(NYSE:TX)

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Rating:62Neutral

Price Target:$55.00▲(7.00% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/04/26

The score is driven primarily by improving operating results and a strong, low-leverage balance sheet, plus a constructive earnings call emphasizing Mexico strength and improving cash generation. These positives are tempered by weak technical momentum (downtrend/negative MACD) and the financial-statement cash-flow weakness (negative recent free cash flow), which together cap the overall rating despite reasonable valuation and a solid dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Earnings and margin recoveryThe strong improvement in EBITDA and margin shows that higher realized prices and stable cost per ton are translating into substantially better operating profitability. If sustained, this recovery can strengthen internal funding capacity and restore earnings power across the steel cycle.

Negative Factors

Negative free cash flowNegative free cash flow indicates that capital spending and working-capital needs are currently absorbing more cash than the business generates after operations. That reduces financial optionality and could constrain investment or distributions if steel profitability weakens again.

Ternium SA (TX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $10.09B
Dividend Yield: 6.17%
Average Volume (3M): 510.97K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.2
Beta (1Y): 0.58
Revenue Growth: -0.65%
EPS Growth: 18.90%
Country: US
Employees: 33,253
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Steel

Ternium SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ternium S.A. is an international steel enterprise engaged in the production, processing, and sale of a wide range of steel products. Its extensive market presence covers Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, the United States, and numerous other countries acros...

How the Company Makes Money

Ternium primarily makes money by producing and selling steel and steel-related products to industrial customers and distributors. Its core revenue stream is the sale of finished steel products (including flat and long products and value-added offerin...

Ternium SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 02, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:-0.48%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 22, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly constructive. Ternium reported strong EBITDA growth, materially higher first-nine-month earnings, record Mexican shipments, market share gains, positive Mexican demand trends, positive free cash flow, and a restored net cash position. These positives were tempered by Brazilian market and mining challenges, weak conditions in parts of Argentina, low customer inventories, seasonal fourth-quarter pressures, and uncertainty around trade policy and future projects. Overall, the highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Positive Updates

Higher EBITDA and Strong Quarterly Cash Generation

Ternium described the third quarter as solid. Adjusted EBITDA increased 10% sequentially to $785 million, with the adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 16.9%, driven by higher steel shipments and improved realized prices, especially in Mexico. Cash from operations was $613 million in the quarter, while management also characterized quarterly operating cash generation as $600 million.

Negative Updates

Complex Brazilian Steel Market and Declining Consumption

worldsteel expects apparent steel consumption in Brazil to fall 2.7% in 2026. Imports remain the main concern: anti-dumping measures reduced imports from China, but imports from Vietnam, South Korea, and Egypt are growing strongly, while indirect steel imports through foreign-made or imported-material vehicles continue to pressure the industry.

Company Guidance

Ternium expects fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to remain broadly in line with the third quarter, with a slightly lower shipment offset by a modest improvement in margin per ton; volumes are expected to keep growing further into the first quarter of 2027 and in the first half of 2027, while Mexican prices will be “a little bit more up” in the fourth quarter and prices will continue to hold at this level or a little bit up. Pesquería’s new slab mill is expected to start production in February, with 2027 a ramp-up year and the company thinking more in 2028; the expected margin of the slabs is probably between $50 and $100, plus a price premium. Next year CapEx is expected to be $1.2 billion, and if the trend continues, Ternium will reinforce its dividend payment, with a very high possibility of higher dividends in the future, although it may change its dividend policy in late 2027 or 2028. The Compactos decision is still expected in 2027, and the company expects demand and probably margins to increase in the first quarter.

Ternium SA Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows a clear TTM rebound versus 2025 (stronger revenue and improved margins), and the balance sheet remains conservative with low leverage and flexibility. The key drag is cash-flow quality: free cash flow is negative in TTM and 2025 and cash conversion is only moderate, which limits near-term financial optionality in a cyclical steel environment.

Income Statement

62Positive

Balance Sheet

74Positive

Cash Flow

48Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	15.97B	15.61B	17.65B	17.61B	16.41B	16.09B
Gross Profit	2.78B	2.34B	2.89B	5.26B	3.93B	6.20B
EBITDA	1.94B	1.51B	1.67B	2.16B	3.33B	6.38B
Net Income	698.47M	425.23M	-53.67M	676.04M	1.77B	3.83B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	24.55B	23.62B	23.13B	24.18B	17.49B	17.10B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	2.73B	3.13B	3.85B	3.82B	3.53B	2.57B
Total Debt	3.00B	2.61B	1.79B	1.47B	771.85M	916.09M
Total Liabilities	7.81B	7.47B	7.00B	7.37B	3.72B	4.86B
Stockholders Equity	12.30B	11.94B	11.97B	12.42B	11.85B	10.54B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-473.66M	-187.23M	40.74M	1.04B	2.17B	2.15B
Operating Cash Flow	1.54B	2.31B	1.91B	2.50B	2.75B	2.68B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.86B	-1.98B	-1.38B	-1.47B	-1.32B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	-98.18M	-500.58M	-488.38M	-766.36M	-1.02B	-854.38M

Ternium SA Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price51.40

Price Trends

50DMA56.18Negative

100DMA52.25Negative

200DMA47.28Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-1.18Positive

RSI33.77Neutral

STOCH12.11Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 51.40 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.84, below the 50-day MA of 56.18, and above the 200-day MA of 47.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TX.

Ternium SA Risk Analysis

Ternium SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ternium SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

2 New Risks

1.Ternium's strategic growth projects could be delayed, the cost of those projects could increase, or Ternium's competitiveness could be affected, if the operations of certain suppliers of heavy equipment are disrupted by geopolitical risk, adversely affecting Ternium's growth opportunities and profitability.Q4, 2023

2.Certain Regulatory Risks And Litigation Risks Ternium faces a significant loss contingency in Brazil in connection with its acquisition of a participation in the control group of Usiminas.Q4, 2023

Ternium SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

TX against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SIM	66Neutral	$4.24B	11.42	9.07%	―	16.64%	51.26%
GGB	63Neutral	$8.58B	15.51	5.06%	3.27%	10.25%	4.20%
TX	62Neutral	$10.14B	14.20	5.77%	6.17%	-0.65%	18.90%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CLF	54Neutral	$8.07B	-14.43	-8.14%	―	8.10%	75.20%
MT	53Neutral	$45.34B	25.94	3.31%	1.16%	3.25%	-27.63%
SID	43Neutral	$946.56M	-2.25	-18.55%	―	9.29%	-26.44%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TX and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TX	Ternium	51.40	17.65	52.28%
MT	ArcelorMittal	62.49	25.07	66.97%
CLF	Cleveland-Cliffs	12.84	2.75	27.25%
GGB	Gerdau	4.60	1.14	33.14%
SIM	Grupo Simec S.a. De C.v.	26.11	-2.90	-9.98%
SID	Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional	0.78	-0.80	-50.89%

Ternium SA Corporate Events

Ternium Files September 2026 Interim Financial Statements

Nov 4, 2026

Ternium S.A. is a steel producer supplying flat and long steel products, including value-added solutions, primarily to industrial and construction customers across the Americas. On November 3, 2026, the Luxembourg-based company filed unaudited consol...

Ternium Reports Strong Third-Quarter 2026 Profit Growth and $0.90 ADS Dividend

Nov 3, 2026

Ternium said on Nov. 3, 2026, that third-quarter net sales rose 7% sequentially and 17% year over year to $4.644 billion, while adjusted EBITDA increased 10% from the second quarter and 87% from a year earlier to $785 million, lifting the margin to 1...

Ternium Files Form 6-K Detailing Analyst Meeting Presentation

Oct 8, 2026

On October 8, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing materials from a meeting held the same day with financial analysts. The filing, signed by attorneys-in-fact Guillermo Etchepareborda and Se...

Ternium Files Mid‑Year 2026 Interim Financials With SEC

Aug 5, 2026

Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K on August 4, 2026, publishing consolidated condensed interim financial statements as of June 30, 2026 and for the six-month periods ended June 30, 2026 and 2025. The unaudited report updates investors on income, cash flo...

Ternium Posts Strong Q2 2026 Earnings on Higher Steel and Mining Shipments

Aug 4, 2026

On August 4, 2026, Ternium reported strong results for the second quarter and first half of 2026, with Q2 steel shipments rising 4% quarter-on-quarter to 3.9 million tons and mining shipments up 18% to 3.3 million tons. Net sales grew 10% versus the...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2026

Ternium SA AI Stock Analysis