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Ternium SA
(NYSE:TX)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$58.00
▲(22.62% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
The score is driven primarily by improving profitability and a strong, low-leverage balance sheet, reinforced by constructive earnings-call guidance for further sequential EBITDA improvement. The main constraints are weak recent free cash flow/cash conversion and near-term cash/working-capital pressures, while technicals support the trend but show overbought momentum that elevates pullback risk.
Positive Factors
Conservative leverage
Ternium’s low debt-to-equity (TTM ~0.25) and sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility across the steel cycle. Conserved leverage supports investment optionality, dividend capacity and resilience through downturns, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over months to years.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow
Persistent negative free cash flow weakens financial optionality and limits the company’s ability to deleverage, fund dividends or absorb shocks without tapping debt or equity. Higher capex and working‑capital outflows reduce buffer during slower demand phases, raising structural liquidity risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Conservative leverage
Ternium’s low debt-to-equity (TTM ~0.25) and sizable equity base provide durable financial flexibility across the steel cycle. Conserved leverage supports investment optionality, dividend capacity and resilience through downturns, reducing refinancing and liquidity risk over months to years.
Read all positive factors
Ternium SA (TX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.56B
Dividend Yield4.09%
Average Volume (3M)525.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.9
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth-0.65%
EPS Growth18.90%
CountryUS
Employees33,253
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.62
Shares Outstanding196,307,680
10 Day Avg. Volume672,836
30 Day Avg. Volume525,666
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.48
P/FCF Ratio-40.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$55.08Price Target Upside16.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)5.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$17.43B
Ternium SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ternium S.A. is an international steel enterprise engaged in the production, processing, and sale of a wide range of steel products. Its extensive market presence covers Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, the United States, and numerous other countries ac...
How the Company Makes Money
Ternium primarily makes money by selling steel and steel-related products to customers across the Americas. Its revenue is largely generated from (1) sales of finished steel products (such as flat and long steel products) to end users and steel-co...
Ternium SA Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial trajectory: strong sequential EBITDA growth, significant year‑over‑year improvement in first-half results, shipment recovery in Mexico, progress on strategic projects (Pesqueria) and customer recognitions. Offsetting points include a sizeable working capital build that turned net cash into net debt, foreign exchange and tax-related financial headwinds, ongoing trade uncertainty (Section 232) and the fact that Pesqueria's full benefits will be realized only after a multi‑quarter ramp-up. On balance, the positive improvements in profitability, clear path to lower CapEx and management's commitment to shareholder returns outweigh short-term cash and trade challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Sequential EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA rose 50% sequentially in Q2 2026, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 16.5% from 12.2% in Q1; steel cash operating income increased by $204 million sequentially.
Negative Updates
Working Capital Build and Weaker Operating Cash Flow
Q2 experienced a $418 million buildup in working capital (reflecting higher sales and raw material costs); cash from operations for H1 totaled $473 million and declined year-over-year mainly due to higher inventory values and receivables.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Sequential EBITDA Recovery
Adjusted EBITDA rose 50% sequentially in Q2 2026, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 16.5% from 12.2% in Q1; steel cash operating income increased by $204 million sequentially.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ternium guided to continued sequential improvement into Q3, expecting adjusted EBITDA to rise further after Q2’s strong quarter (adjusted EBITDA up 50% sequentially; adjusted EBITDA margin 16.5% vs 12.2% in Q1), supported by higher shipments (consolidated shipments +4% q/q) and better realized prices (steel cash operating income +$204m q/q); Q2 net income was $465m and H1 net income $837m with H1 adjusted EBITDA $1.2bn (+65% y/y) and H1 EBITDA margin 14% (vs 9% LY), EPS $2.84/ADS. Management expects volumes to keep recovering mainly in Mexico and Brazil, CapEx to decline from $1.6bn for full-year 2026 to ~ $1.2bn in 2027 (H1 CapEx $837m), Pesqueria slab start-up in early 2027 (ramp/certification for >2.5Mt), and a strong balance sheet (net debt $112m at June vs net cash $327m at March) despite a $418m working‑capital build and a $255m dividend paid.Ternium SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 15.97B | 15.61B | 17.65B | 17.61B | 16.41B | 16.09B |
| Gross Profit | 2.78B | 2.34B | 2.89B | 5.26B | 3.93B | 6.20B |
| EBITDA | 1.94B | 1.42B | 1.67B | 2.16B | 3.33B | 6.38B |
| Net Income | 698.47M | 425.23M | -53.67M | 676.04M | 1.77B | 3.83B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 24.55B | 23.62B | 23.13B | 24.18B | 17.49B | 17.10B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.73B | 3.13B | 3.85B | 3.82B | 3.53B | 2.57B |
| Total Debt | 3.00B | 2.61B | 1.79B | 1.47B | 771.85M | 916.09M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.81B | 7.47B | 7.00B | 7.37B | 3.72B | 4.86B |
| Stockholders Equity | 12.30B | 11.94B | 11.97B | 12.42B | 11.85B | 10.54B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -473.66M | -187.23M | 40.74M | 1.04B | 2.17B | 2.15B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.54B | 2.31B | 1.91B | 2.50B | 2.75B | 2.68B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.86B | -1.98B | -1.38B | -1.47B | -1.32B | -1.05B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -98.18M | -500.58M | -488.38M | -766.36M | -1.02B | -854.38M |
Ternium SA Technical Analysis
Positive
47.30
Price Trends
47.46
Positive
45.13
Positive
41.76
Positive
Market Momentum
2.38
Negative
67.10
Neutral
79.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 50.28, below the 50-day MA of 47.46, and above the 200-day MA of 41.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TX.
Ternium SA Risk Analysis
Ternium SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ternium SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Ternium's strategic growth projects could be delayed, the cost of those projects could increase, or Ternium's competitiveness could be affected, if the operations of certain suppliers of heavy equipment are disrupted by geopolitical risk, adversely affecting Ternium's growth opportunities and profitability. Q4, 2023
2.
Certain Regulatory Risks And Litigation Risks Ternium faces a significant loss contingency in Brazil in connection with its acquisition of a participation in the control group of Usiminas. Q4, 2023
Ternium SA Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $7.92B | 13.39 | 13.65% | 1.10% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
66 Neutral | $10.56B | 14.86 | 5.77% | 4.65% | -0.65% | 18.90% | |
62 Neutral | $8.70B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 2.65% | 8.98% | -21.39% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $5.17B | 6.43 | 3.33% | ― | 7.95% | -38.27% | |
53 Neutral | $6.79B | -7.13 | -15.23% | ― | 4.03% | 52.63% | |
47 Neutral | $1.13B | -3.34 | -12.83% | ― | 9.29% | -26.44% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TX
Ternium SA
53.81
22.76
73.28%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
11.90
1.32
12.48%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
71.63
15.38
27.34%
GGB
Gerdau SA
4.74
1.82
62.38%
SIM
Grupo Simec SA De CV
30.50
1.72
5.98%
SID
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
0.89
-0.43
-32.44%
Ternium SA Corporate Events
Ternium Files Mid‑Year 2026 Interim Financials With SEC
Aug 5, 2026
Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K on August 4, 2026, publishing consolidated condensed interim financial statements as of June 30, 2026 and for the six-month periods ended June 30, 2026 and 2025. The unaudited report updates investors on income, cash ...
Ternium Posts Strong Q2 2026 Earnings on Higher Steel and Mining Shipments
Aug 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Ternium reported strong results for the second quarter and first half of 2026, with Q2 steel shipments rising 4% quarter-on-quarter to 3.9 million tons and mining shipments up 18% to 3.3 million tons. Net sales grew 10% versus t...
Ternium Publishes 2025 Sustainability Report and Expands Decarbonization, ESG Investments
Jul 8, 2026
On July 8, 2026, Ternium released its Sustainability Report 2025, detailing performance, strategy and governance across key environmental, social and governance dimensions. The report marks a broader decarbonization scope by consolidating Usiminas...
Ternium Files 2025 Sustainability Report with U.S. SEC
Jul 8, 2026
On July 8, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from its Luxembourg headquarters. The submission confirms the company’s status as a foreign private issuer reporting under Form 20-F and maintain...
Ternium Shareholders Approve 2025 Accounts, Dividend and Renew Governance Mandates at May 12 AGM
May 12, 2026
Ternium S.A. held its Annual General Meeting of Shareholders in Luxembourg on May 12, 2026, where investors approved the company’s consolidated financial statements for the years ended December 31, 2023, 2024 and 2025, as well as the 2025 an...
Ternium Shareholders Approve 2025 Accounts, $2.20 Dividend and Board Slate at May 12 AGM
May 12, 2026
Ternium S.A., a leading Americas-focused steel producer, held its annual general meeting of shareholders in Luxembourg on May 12, 2026, where investors approved all resolutions on the agenda. The company’s 2025 consolidated financial stateme...
Ternium Files First-Quarter 2026 Consolidated Interim Results
May 6, 2026
On May 5, 2026, Ternium S.A. filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, furnishing its consolidated condensed interim financial statements as of March 31, 2026. The filing covers the company’s financial position and r...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.