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Trade Desk
(NASDAQ:TTD)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(1.89% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/20/26
The score is anchored by strong financial quality (high margins, solid operating profitability, and robust free cash flow) and a supportive earnings multiple (P/E ~14.6). These positives are tempered by weak technicals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and a cautious near-term outlook from the latest earnings call (low Q2 growth, conservative Q3 guidance, limited visibility). Corporate events add additional near-term uncertainty due to the workforce reduction and restructuring costs.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability and cash generation
High gross margins and healthy operating profitability indicate a scalable software model, while substantial free cash flow provides resources for product investment, customer development, and strategic flexibility. These characteristics support durable earnings quality beyond a single reporting period.
Negative Factors
Slowing growth and execution challenges
A sharp slowdown in revenue growth, combined with acknowledged execution shortcomings, raises questions about the company’s ability to convert product strength and market opportunity into consistent expansion. Corrective actions may take several quarters to produce durable improvement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability and cash generation
High gross margins and healthy operating profitability indicate a scalable software model, while substantial free cash flow provides resources for product investment, customer development, and strategic flexibility. These characteristics support durable earnings quality beyond a single reporting period.
Read all positive factors
Trade Desk Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Spend
The total advertising dollars transacted through Trade Desk’s platform, reflecting demand, client adoption, and overall platform scale. Growth in gross spend drives future revenue potential but can mask margin effects since most spend is passed on to publishers and exchanges.
The total advertising dollars transacted through Trade Desk’s platform, reflecting demand, client adoption, and overall platform scale. Growth in gross spend drives future revenue potential but can mask margin effects since most spend is passed on to publishers and exchanges.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTrade Desk (TTD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.15B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)22.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.5
Beta (1Y)0.87
Revenue Growth11.61%
EPS Growth0.19%
CountryUS
Employees3,843
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryAdvertising Agencies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.84
Shares Outstanding429,686,460
10 Day Avg. Volume15,095,608
30 Day Avg. Volume22,283,980
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.75
Price to Book (P/B)7.33
Price to Sales (P/S)6.29
P/FCF Ratio22.90
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.49
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.24
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.67
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.35Price Target Upside0.75% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering28
EPS Forecast (FY)0.39
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.75B
Trade Desk Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Trade Desk, Inc. is a global technology company that provides a self-service, cloud-based platform. This platform enables advertising buyers to efficiently create, manage, and optimize data-driven digital ad campaigns across diverse formats an...
How the Company Makes Money
The Trade Desk primarily makes money by charging fees tied to the amount of advertising spend that clients execute through its platform. In practice, when an agency or brand uses The Trade Desk DSP to buy programmatic ads, The Trade Desk earns rev...
Trade Desk Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: meaningful strengths (solid cash generation, JBPs accelerating revenue under strategic partnerships, strong regional and CTV/audio growth, promising early results from Audience Unlimited, and a robust product/measurement roadmap plus experienced new leadership) are offset by clear near‑term challenges (Q2 revenue growth only 3% YoY, admitted execution shortcomings, rising operating expenses from infrastructure and AI investments, concentration in pressured categories like CPG and autos, and cautious Q3 guidance). Management emphasized disciplined prioritization and product initiatives to drive longer‑term recovery, but near‑term visibility remains limited.Positive Updates
Q2 Revenue and Profitability
Reported revenue of $715 million in Q2, up 3% year‑over‑year. Adjusted EBITDA was $241 million representing a 34% margin. Adjusted net income was $158 million ($0.34 per diluted share).
Negative Updates
Revenue Growth Below Expectations
Company stated revenue growth is below its expectations; Q2 revenue only grew 3% year‑over‑year and management acknowledged underperformance driven by macro pressures and execution issues.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Revenue and Profitability
Reported revenue of $715 million in Q2, up 3% year‑over‑year. Adjusted EBITDA was $241 million representing a 34% margin. Adjusted net income was $158 million ($0.34 per diluted share).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The Trade Desk guided Q3 revenue of at least $650 million and adjusted EBITDA of about $160 million (vs. Q2 revenue $715M and Q2 adjusted EBITDA $241M, a 34% margin); Q2 net income was $64M ($0.14 diluted, ~9% of revenue) and adjusted net income $158M ($0.34), with net cash from operations $154M, free cash flow $136M and ~ $1.5B in cash/cash equivalents/short‑term investments. Q2 operating expenses were $613M (up 6% YoY) and $504M ex‑stock‑based comp (up 12% YoY); the company repurchased $78M of stock in Q2 with $269M remaining authorization. Key mix and growth metrics cited: video/CTV ~low‑50s% of revenue, mobile ~high‑20s%, display ~low‑double‑digits, audio ~7% (fastest‑growing channel); U.S. ~83% of revenue, international ~17%; EMEA and APAC ~30% YTD growth, China >100% YTD; JBPs totaled 217 clients (38% YoY) with revenue under JBPs growing ~6x the overall rate. Management said visibility is limited, is not assuming meaningful near‑term improvement, and will invest with discipline in measurement, Audience Unlimited and platform usability to drive durable growth.Trade Desk Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
79
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.99B | 2.90B | 2.44B | 1.95B | 1.58B | 1.20B |
| Gross Profit | 2.30B | 2.28B | 1.97B | 1.58B | 1.30B | 974.91M |
| EBITDA | 769.60M | 774.54M | 594.79M | 348.41M | 181.79M | 165.28M |
| Net Income | 406.89M | 443.30M | 393.08M | 178.94M | 53.38M | 137.76M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.76B | 6.15B | 6.11B | 4.89B | 4.38B | 3.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.49B | 1.30B | 1.92B | 1.38B | 1.45B | 958.78M |
| Total Debt | 434.11M | 436.33M | 312.21M | 235.89M | 260.96M | 284.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.19B | 3.67B | 3.16B | 2.72B | 2.27B | 2.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.57B | 2.48B | 2.95B | 2.16B | 2.12B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 860.39M | 795.71M | 632.39M | 543.30M | 456.85M | 318.54M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.08B | 992.72M | 739.46M | 598.32M | 548.73M | 378.51M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 218.44M | -292.63M | -157.51M | -107.59M | -304.37M | -93.64M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.07B | -1.41B | -107.61M | -626.11M | 31.99M | 31.93M |
Trade Desk Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.25
Price Trends
13.19
Negative
15.73
Negative
20.68
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.17
Negative
52.47
Neutral
75.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TTD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.32, above the 50-day MA of 13.19, and below the 200-day MA of 20.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TTD.
Trade Desk Risk Analysis
Trade Desk disclosed 48 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Trade Desk reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Trade Desk Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $3.28B | 19.56 | 18.62% | ― | 8.32% | 280.46% | |
70 Outperform | $729.08M | 7.37 | 9.20% | ― | -4.24% | -20.11% | |
68 Neutral | $22.68B | 33.07 | 6.82% | 3.87% | 54.10% | -73.30% | |
67 Neutral | $6.15B | 15.48 | 16.09% | ― | 11.61% | 0.19% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $2.20B | 138.58 | 2.16% | 6.16% | 6.17% | 351.09% | |
53 Neutral | $5.75B | -17.91 | -9.33% | 3.77% | -2.97% | -165.26% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
TTD
Trade Desk
13.00
-40.61
-75.75%
STGW
Stagwell
8.98
4.05
82.15%
OMC
Omnicom Group
82.68
6.63
8.72%
WPP
WPP
26.54
3.40
14.68%
CRTO
Criteo SA
14.88
-6.01
-28.77%
MGNI
Magnite
22.89
2.80
13.94%
Trade Desk Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Trade Desk shareholders approve employee stock option repricing
Positive
Oct 20, 2026
On October 19, 2026, The Trade Desk, Inc. implemented a repricing of certain outstanding stock options held by current service providers, including executive officers and employees but excluding non-employee directors, under its 2025 Incentive Awa...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Trade Desk grants CEO major performance-based stock options
Positive
Sep 15, 2026
On September 14, 2026, the Board of The Trade Desk approved a performance-based stock option for CEO Jeff Green, enabling him to buy up to 7,000,000 shares at $14.97 if the company’s Class A stock sustains price targets between $18 and $105 ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Trade Desk Announces Workforce Reduction Amid Strategic Realignment
Negative
Sep 4, 2026
On September 3, 2026, The Trade Desk announced an organizational realignment aimed at aligning resources with its highest-priority growth opportunities and improving operational effectiveness. The plan is designed to create a more focused, agile a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.