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Tpg Re Finance
(NYSE:TRTX)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
â–¼(-15.69% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/27/26
The score is primarily held back by leveraged financial structure and weakening technical trend signals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Offsetting positives include strong dividend yield and a constructive earnings call highlighting portfolio performance, liquidity, and improving financing, though leverage and book value pressure remain notable risks.
Positive Factors
Portfolio Growth
Strong origination activity and rapid growth in net earning assets indicate sustained demand for TRTX’s commercial real estate lending and expanding interest-income capacity. Because recent originations represent nearly 45% of the current portfolio, they can support earnings contribution over coming reporting periods.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
The debt-heavy capital structure leaves TRTX sensitive to asset values, funding costs, and credit losses. Leverage increased as investment activity accelerated, reducing financial flexibility and making adverse property or refinancing conditions more consequential for equity and book value.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Portfolio Growth
Strong origination activity and rapid growth in net earning assets indicate sustained demand for TRTX’s commercial real estate lending and expanding interest-income capacity. Because recent originations represent nearly 45% of the current portfolio, they can support earnings contribution over coming reporting periods.
Read all positive factors
Tpg Re Finance (TRTX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$479.81M
Dividend Yield15.36%
Average Volume (3M)1.40M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.0
Beta (1Y)0.42
Revenue Growth3.78%
EPS Growth-15.19%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding76,769,010
10 Day Avg. Volume1,732,634
30 Day Avg. Volume1,402,168
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.63
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)2.05
P/FCF Ratio8.11
Enterprise Value/Market Cap8.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue15.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda21.34
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.06Price Target Upside17.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$145.19M
Tpg Re Finance Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc. (TRTX) operates as a financial institution primarily engaged in the commercial real estate sector within the United States. Its core business involves generating, purchasing, and actively overseeing a variety of debt ins...
How the Company Makes Money
TRTX primarily makes money by earning interest income and fee income from its commercial real estate debt investments. Its core revenue stream is net interest income: the interest collected on its loan portfolio (typically floating-rate first mort...
Tpg Re Finance Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 26, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 23, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive. Management reported strong origination activity, 36% year-over-year growth in net earning assets, 13% quarter-over-quarter growth in net interest income, a 100% performing loan portfolio, improved long-duration financing, substantial liquidity, and an expanded share repurchase authorization. These positives outweighed challenges including elevated rates, declining acquisition activity, wider multifamily spreads, higher leverage, a $13 million realized loss from a multifamily loan converted to REO, and a $0.10 decline in book value per share.Positive Updates
Strong New Investment Activity and Portfolio Growth
TRTX closed $773 million of new investments during the third quarter and increased net earning assets by $600 million. Since September 2025, the company has originated $2.3 billion of loan investments, representing nearly 45% of its current loan portfolio and contributing to 36% year-over-year growth in net earning assets.
Negative Updates
Longer Deal Closing Timelines
Management said the time between signing a deal and closing has increased and can put pressure on earnings.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong New Investment Activity and Portfolio Growth
TRTX closed $773 million of new investments during the third quarter and increased net earning assets by $600 million. Since September 2025, the company has originated $2.3 billion of loan investments, representing nearly 45% of its current loan portfolio and contributing to 36% year-over-year growth in net earning assets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said 80% of multifamily exposure is originated 2024 and later and could increase closer to 90% with anticipated repayments; loan floors that had been in the 2.5%-3% range are slowly creeping up, while CRE CLO weighted average cost of funds was give or take about 25 basis points wider and loan spreads were starting to reflect that; the pipeline remains incredibly strong, although new acquisitions are few and far between, and activity is now more of a one in, one out approach as the company approaches its target leverage and target balance sheet size; there is no major change to the REO monetization strategy and pacing, one multifamily property is in the final stages of marketing with an LOI in place; class A-plus newly built multifamily loan spreads are probably out about 15 basis points-30 basis points, while class B, C real estate, particularly multifamily, is seeing spreads 25 basis points to even 50 basis points wider, and industrial spreads remain somewhat firm.Tpg Re Finance Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 263.42M | 332.57M | 350.93M | 390.17M | 305.71M | 240.72M |
| Gross Profit | 212.08M | 263.75M | 281.81M | 356.85M | 275.10M | 217.59M |
| EBITDA | 191.77M | 262.38M | 291.92M | 162.39M | 116.23M | 224.70M |
| Net Income | 41.87M | 60.32M | 74.33M | -116.63M | -60.07M | 138.55M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.24B | 4.41B | 3.73B | 4.21B | 5.55B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 70.83M | 88.27M | 190.16M | 206.38M | 254.05M | 260.63M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 3.29B | 2.57B | 3.04B | 4.16B | 3.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.22B | 3.34B | 2.62B | 3.09B | 4.22B | 3.75B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.02B | 1.07B | 1.11B | 1.12B | 1.32B | 1.46B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 62.27M | 84.22M | 106.81M | 74.76M | 95.44M | 132.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 70.79M | 90.36M | 112.13M | 80.13M | 100.50M | 132.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -582.11M | -789.71M | 440.51M | 1.10B | -452.56M | -342.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 483.07M | 597.13M | -569.18M | -1.22B | 345.34M | 152.10M |
Tpg Re Finance Technical Analysis
Negative
7.71
Price Trends
6.74
Negative
7.38
Negative
7.58
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
50.16
Neutral
89.26
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TRTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.01, above the 50-day MA of 6.74, and above the 200-day MA of 7.58, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.26 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TRTX.
Tpg Re Finance Risk Analysis
Tpg Re Finance disclosed 124 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tpg Re Finance reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tpg Re Finance Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
56 Neutral | $479.81M | 15.95 | 3.99% | 15.36% | 3.78% | -15.19% | |
55 Neutral | $523.19M | 13.94 | 4.45% | 15.16% | 11.14% | -54.56% | |
50 Neutral | $466.87M | -15.89 | -2.91% | 17.34% | -0.14% | -10.71% | |
48 Neutral | $189.19M | -45.29 | -0.88% | 17.60% | 28.95% | 76.08% | |
46 Neutral | $343.44M | -1.77 | -16.70% | 12.03% | -19.57% | -397.76% | |
41 Neutral | $172.12M | -0.32 | -35.83% | 11.35% | 79.83% | -27.98% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
6.25
-1.61
-20.51%
ACRE
Ares Commercial
3.41
-0.64
-15.86%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
5.82
-2.08
-26.35%
BRSP
BrightSpire Capital
3.69
-1.00
-21.36%
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trust
6.30
-3.33
-34.60%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
1.22
-2.29
-65.24%
Tpg Re Finance Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
TPG RE Finance Launches New $1 Billion CRE CLO
Positive
Oct 6, 2026
On October 2, 2026, TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc., through its TRTX 2026-FL8 CLO vehicle, issued multiple classes of floating-rate notes and preferred shares backed by approximately $1 billion of commercial real estate whole loans and participation i...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.