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TMC the metals company Inc.
(NASDAQ:TMC)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$5.00
▲(0.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/22/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, sustained losses, negative free cash flow, and negative equity), which increases funding and execution risk. This is partially offset by a relatively positive earnings-call update showing regulatory and project-development progress and near-term liquidity coverage. Technicals are mixed and valuation support is limited due to negative earnings and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Expanding U.S. Regulatory Access to Large Nodule Resources
NOAA’s formal review advances TMC toward potential U.S.-regulated commercial recovery while expanding its resource footprint. Progress through a defined regulatory process can strengthen long-term project access, resource optionality, and strategic relevance to critical-mineral supply chains.
Negative Factors
Pre-Revenue Business With Persistent Losses
TMC has not yet demonstrated commercial revenue or operating profitability, leaving its investment case dependent on successful project development. Continued losses before production increase execution risk and make future performance highly sensitive to permitting, construction, and commissioning outcomes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Expanding U.S. Regulatory Access to Large Nodule Resources
NOAA’s formal review advances TMC toward potential U.S.-regulated commercial recovery while expanding its resource footprint. Progress through a defined regulatory process can strengthen long-term project access, resource optionality, and strategic relevance to critical-mineral supply chains.
Read all positive factors
TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.96B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth-97.40%
CountryUS
Employees48
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryOther Precious Metals
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.85
Shares Outstanding441,135,470
10 Day Avg. Volume6,880,600
30 Day Avg. Volume6,385,900
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.03
Price to Book (P/B)-70.94
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-55.05
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-0.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.00Price Target Upside121.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
TMC the metals company Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
TMC the metals company Inc., a deep-sea minerals exploration company, focuses on the collection, processing, and refining of polymetallic nodules found on the seafloor in California. It primarily explores for nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese ...
How the Company Makes Money
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TMC the metals company Inc. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed substantial progress on multiple strategic fronts — regulatory milestones entering public review, a binding development/operating agreement with Allseas advancing into procurement and fabrication, strong resource economics (combined NPV $23.6B), growing U.S. government support, and concrete onshore planning and partner commitments (Mariana, Eco Minerals, PAMCO). At the same time, near-term financial metrics show significant increased exploration spend, negative free cash flow, payables tied to preproduction work, and a modest permitting delay that introduces schedule uncertainty. Overall, the updates indicate positive momentum toward commercial development and an attractive long-term resource case, tempered by clear near-term cash burn and timing risks.Positive Updates
Regulatory Progress in U.S. Permitting
NOAA advanced both TMC USA applications: USA-A consolidated application to be posted in the Federal Register imminently and USA-B expected to receive a notice of intent for an EIS; certification now expected in October 2026, with management still expecting a permit well in advance of targeted vessel commissioning in Q4 2027.
Negative Updates
Permitting Timing Delay
NOAA cited administrative delays pushing certification out to October 2026 and management now indicates a permit grant in Q1 2027 is unlikely — though still expecting a permit before vessel commissioning in Q4 2027, the shift creates near-term schedule uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Regulatory Progress in U.S. Permitting
NOAA advanced both TMC USA applications: USA-A consolidated application to be posted in the Federal Register imminently and USA-B expected to receive a notice of intent for an EIS; certification now expected in October 2026, with management still expecting a permit well in advance of targeted vessel commissioning in Q4 2027.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The call provided detailed operational and financial guidance and timelines: NOAA is expected to publish USA‑A in the Federal Register imminently with certification now expected in October 2026 (so a permit grant in Q1 2027 is unlikely), while vessel commissioning remains targeted for Q4 2027; Allseas’ program is moving from engineering into procurement with fabrication slated from Q4 2026 through Q3 2027 and installation/commissioning targeted Q4 2027 for an initial operating configuration of 3 million wet tonnes per year (2 collector vehicles); typical bulk shipments would be ~60,000 tonnes with ~3,800 nm voyages (≈2,200 nm to Panama); onshore plans contemplate a Brownsville site of 1,466 acres (735 + 731) and a potential 12 Mtpa industry park. The company reiterated project economics from its studies (PFS NPV $5.5B, initial assessment NPV $18.1B, combined resource NPV $23.6B; life‑of‑project revenue ≈$369B and EBITDA >$200B), and provided liquidity and Q2 metrics: liquidity of $143M at June 30, 2026 (including $44M undrawn), Q2 net loss ~$60.1M ($0.14/sh), exploration & evaluation $56.1M (including $37.2M of Allseas‑related charges — $34.8M deferred payable on tonnage and $2.4M settled in shares), G&A $15.6M, net cash used in operations $20.1M (adjusted ≈$11M excluding $9M tax timing), free cash flow -$20.2M, and accounts payable & accruals $52.1M (including $40.5M owed to Allseas, $36.1M of which is payable at production), with management stating cash on hand is sufficient for at least the next 12 months.TMC the metals company Inc. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -118.00K | -252.00K | -362.00K | -360.00K | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EBITDA | -302.42M | -316.23M | -78.93M | -73.38M | -170.47M | -143.74M |
| Net Income | -305.64M | -319.84M | -81.94M | -73.78M | -170.96M | -141.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 180.86M | 181.63M | 63.00M | 68.90M | 94.78M | 133.13M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 98.66M | 117.63M | 3.48M | 6.84M | 46.84M | 84.87M |
| Total Debt | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11.78M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 208.30M | 215.07M | 80.12M | 57.98M | 53.27M | 40.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | -27.44M | -33.44M | -17.12M | 10.92M | 41.51M | 92.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -43.72M | -43.10M | -43.98M | -60.15M | -67.77M | -56.49M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -43.56M | -42.85M | -43.47M | -59.57M | -66.60M | -56.09M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -695.00K | 447.00K | -515.00K | -578.00K | -1.17M | -3.84M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 27.29M | 156.59M | 40.69M | 20.07M | 29.72M | 134.70M |
TMC the metals company Inc. Technical Analysis
Negative
4.96
Price Trends
4.18
Positive
4.78
Negative
5.57
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Positive
50.27
Neutral
16.05
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TMC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.48, above the 50-day MA of 4.18, and below the 200-day MA of 5.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.05 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TMC.
TMC the metals company Inc. Risk Analysis
TMC the metals company Inc. disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. TMC the metals company Inc. reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
TMC the metals company Inc. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $5.09B | 58.91 | 9.41% | 0.22% | 21.56% | 454.16% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $1.06B | 58.61 | 7.13% | 2.87% | 5.46% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $1.96B | -5.18 | 948.80% | ― | ― | -97.40% | |
47 Neutral | $379.23M | -5.27 | -63.85% | ― | 776.51% | 38.07% | |
47 Neutral | $6.61B | -7.35 | -23.45% | ― | ― | -270.60% | |
46 Neutral | $816.29M | -13.18 | -35.30% | ― | ― | -48.46% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TMC
TMC the metals company Inc.
4.43
-0.77
-14.81%
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IPX
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22.37
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USAR
USA Rare Earth
17.66
3.56
25.25%
TMC the metals company Inc. Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TMC Advances NOAA Review for Expanded U.S. Seabed Mining
Positive
Aug 19, 2026
On August 19, 2026, TMC announced that NOAA published in the Federal Register a consolidated application by its U.S. subsidiary for an exploration license and commercial recovery permit covering the TMC USA‑A area in the Clarion‑Clippe...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TMC Advances NOAA Review for U.S. Seabed Exploration
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
On August 17, 2026, TMC the metals company Inc. announced that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published a Notice of Intent in the Federal Register to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for an exploration license applica...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
TMC the metals company Holds 2026 Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
May 29, 2026
TMC the metals company Inc. held its annual meeting on May 28, 2026, where shareholders approved setting the board size at 10 directors and elected all nominated directors to serve until the 2027 annual meeting. Shareholders also ratified Ernst Y...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
TMC Secures NOAA Certification for USA B Seafloor License
Positive
May 28, 2026
On May 28, 2026, TMC the metals company Inc. announced that the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration formally certified the USA B exploration license application submitted by its U.S. subsidiary under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral R...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.