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Tilly's
(NYSE:TLYS)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▲(14.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is driven by a positive operating turnaround and upbeat guidance from the earnings call, supported by moderately bullish technicals. Offsetting these positives are still-weak underlying financial resilience (thin profitability and elevated leverage in the provided statements) and a high P/E multiple that leaves less room for execution missteps.
Positive Factors
Sustained comparable-sales growth
Repeated double-digit comparable-sales growth indicates improving customer demand and merchandise relevance rather than a single-period rebound. Sustaining this trend can strengthen store productivity, support operating leverage, and provide a durable base for continued earnings recovery over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Profitability remains thin
The return to profitability is encouraging, but earnings remain only marginal relative to sales and therefore vulnerable to modest shifts in demand, markdowns, or expenses. The history of sizable losses through 2024–2025 also shows that the turnaround has not yet established a consistently resilient earnings base.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained comparable-sales growth
Repeated double-digit comparable-sales growth indicates improving customer demand and merchandise relevance rather than a single-period rebound. Sustaining this trend can strengthen store productivity, support operating leverage, and provide a durable base for continued earnings recovery over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Tilly's Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Sales by Segment
Separates sales across business segments like retail stores, e‑commerce, and wholesale, highlighting channel mix, margin differences, and how shifts between channels affect growth and cost structure.
Separates sales across business segments like retail stores, e‑commerce, and wholesale, highlighting channel mix, margin differences, and how shifts between channels affect growth and cost structure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyTilly's (TLYS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$127.55M
Dividend Yield12.82%
Average Volume (3M)804.47K
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.2
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth6.07%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees5,123
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryApparel - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.07
Shares Outstanding23,281,157
10 Day Avg. Volume2,197,386
30 Day Avg. Volume804,469
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.04
Price to Book (P/B)0.52
Price to Sales (P/S)0.08
P/FCF Ratio-75.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda>-0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.50Price Target Upside39.95% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$580.80M
Tilly's Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tilly's, Inc. functions as a dedicated retailer specializing in casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods. Its primary demographic includes young men and women, as well as boys and girls throughout the United States. Their clothing sele...
How the Company Makes Money
Tilly’s primarily makes money by selling merchandise (apparel, footwear, and accessories) to consumers through two main sales channels: (1) physical retail stores and (2) its e-commerce website. Revenue is generated at the point of sale from indiv...
Tilly's Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Sep 02, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, supported by broad-based comparable sales growth, improving margins, five consecutive quarters of profit improvement, a return to profitability, strong liquidity and continued digital and technology investment. The company also cited footwear weakness, a reduced store base, possible post-back-to-school sales deceleration, higher bonus accruals and ongoing work to restore historical profitability, but these challenges were outweighed by the reported operating momentum and outlook.Positive Updates
Third Consecutive Quarter of Double-Digit Comparable Sales Growth
Second-quarter total comparable net sales increased 12.1%, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit comparable net sales growth. Fiscal August comparable sales increased 14.6%, extending the comparable sales growth streak to 13 consecutive months.
Negative Updates
Footwear Underperformed Other Departments
Footwear was the only department that did not post a double-digit percentage comparable sales gain in the second quarter. Management noted a gap in footwear inventory during back-to-school and said the company chased some inventory in that category.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Third Consecutive Quarter of Double-Digit Comparable Sales Growth
Second-quarter total comparable net sales increased 12.1%, marking the third consecutive quarter of double-digit comparable net sales growth. Fiscal August comparable sales increased 14.6%, extending the comparable sales growth streak to 13 consecutive months.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the third quarter of fiscal 2026, Tilly’s estimates net sales of approximately $150 million to $155 million, translating to a comparable net sales increase range of 10% to 14%, respectively; product margins to be slightly improved relative to last year's third quarter; SG&A of approximately $47 million to $49 million excluding any potential noncash asset impairment charges; an estimated effective income tax rate in the low to mid teens as a percentage of pre tax income; net income in the range of approximately $2.2 million to $3.7 million respectively; and earnings per diluted share of $0.07 to $0.12 respectively, based on approximately 32 million diluted shares. The company expects to end the third quarter with 214 total stores and total liquidity of approximately $125 million or more, comprised of cash and investments of approximately $62 million to $65 million and available undrawn borrowing capacity of approximately $63 million; it expects to finish the year with 218 total stores in operation, is tentatively targeting to open 5 to 8 new stores in fiscal 2027 depending on available opportunities and its ability to achieve appropriate lease economics, and is planning for and expecting a positive comp in the fourth quarter, while currently believing fiscal 2026 will be its first profitable fiscal year since 2022.Tilly's Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 582.94M | 553.59M | 569.45M | 623.08M | 672.28M | 775.69M |
| Gross Profit | 188.25M | 164.47M | 149.70M | 165.66M | 202.79M | 276.66M |
| EBITDA | -15.66M | -8.76M | -37.08M | -18.15M | 25.32M | 104.43M |
| Net Income | 1.96M | -17.45M | -46.23M | -34.49M | 9.68M | 64.25M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 347.15M | 310.76M | 342.46M | 429.55M | 475.90M | 504.82M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 62.20M | 46.31M | 46.71M | 95.05M | 113.28M | 139.23M |
| Total Debt | 169.41M | 170.46M | 193.87M | 231.59M | 432.31M | 439.97M |
| Total Liabilities | 260.23M | 225.62M | 241.59M | 284.68M | 298.69M | 330.11M |
| Stockholders Equity | 86.92M | 85.14M | 100.87M | 144.87M | 177.21M | 174.71M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.27M | -589.00K | -50.24M | -20.69M | -16.54M | 49.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 16.74M | 4.10M | -42.02M | -6.73M | -1.42M | 63.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -15.20M | 21.16M | 15.75M | -19.99M | 42.80M | -45.33M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 117.00K | 0.00 | 294.00K | 227.00K | -10.06M | -52.06M |
Tilly's Technical Analysis
Positive
3.93
Price Trends
4.00
Positive
4.24
Negative
3.24
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
51.27
Neutral
20.23
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLYS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.95, below the 50-day MA of 4.00, and above the 200-day MA of 3.24, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TLYS.
Tilly's Risk Analysis
Tilly's disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tilly's reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Tilly's Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $6.80B | 11.94 | 20.72% | ― | 11.01% | 24.97% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.89B | 8.46 | 20.04% | 2.96% | 6.22% | 65.05% | |
57 Neutral | $298.64M | 19.29 | 4.73% | ― | 4.68% | 3252.79% | |
56 Neutral | $127.55M | 57.18 | 2.37% | 12.82% | 6.07% | ― | |
49 Neutral | $248.80M | -25.66 | 4.27% | ― | -11.16% | -384.28% | |
42 Neutral | $50.58M | -8.27 | -3.39% | 15.08% | -1.10% | 70.99% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TLYS
Tilly's
4.06
2.09
106.09%
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URBN
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77.58
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ZUMZ
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CURV
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2.32
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28.18%
Tilly's Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Tilly’s Extends Credit Agreement Maturity with Wells Fargo
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
On June 10, 2026, Tilly’s subsidiary World of Jeans Tops, as borrower, and Tilly’s, Inc., as guarantor, executed a second amendment to their existing credit agreement with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association. The amendment extends ...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Tilly’s Shareholders Approve Directors, Equity Plan and Auditor
Neutral
Jun 11, 2026
Tilly’s stockholders held their annual meeting after a record date of April 17, 2026, with a total voting power of 96,243,392 votes from both Class A and high‑vote Class B shares. The dual‑class structure continued to give outsiz...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.