Want to see TGT full AI Analyst Report?
Target (TGT) AI Stock Analysis
Target
(NYSE:TGT)
The score reflects improving financial trajectory led by a sharp rebound in free cash flow and recovering margins, but tempered by elevated leverage and an incomplete return to prior-cycle profitability. Technicals are supportive with the stock trading well above key moving averages, though momentum is somewhat stretched. Valuation is broadly reasonable with a mid-teens P/E and a nearly 3% dividend yield, and the earnings call was constructive with raised guidance, partially offset by the one-time nature of tariff-refund-driven upside and ongoing category/SG&A pressures.
Target Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Total Store CountReflects the overall number of stores, providing insight into the company's expansion strategy and market presence.
Target's steady increase in store count over recent years reflects its strategic focus on expanding physical presence, despite current sales challenges. The earnings call highlights digital growth and successful partnerships as key areas of strength, suggesting a balanced approach to retail. While store remodels are boosting sales, economic uncertainties and tariff impacts pose risks. Target's ability to leverage its physical and digital assets will be crucial in navigating these headwinds and sustaining growth.
The FlyTarget (TGT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $71.94B
- Dividend Yield
- 2.89%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 4.08M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 16.4
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.43
- Revenue Growth
- 1.95%
- EPS Growth
- 12.49%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 415,000
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Sector Strength
- 62
- Industry
- Discount Stores
Target Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Target Corp. engages in the operation and ownership of general merchandise stores. It offers food and general merchandise, clothing and household goods, electronics, and toys. Its brands include A New Day, All in Motion, Art Class, Auden, AVA & VIV,...
How the Company Makes Money
Target primarily makes money by selling merchandise to consumers through its stores and digital channels, generating revenue at the point of sale across its major product categories (apparel/accessories, beauty/personal care, home, electronics, toys/...
Target Earnings Call Summary
The call presented a clear improvement in top-line trends, category momentum (notably Food, Fun101, Beauty, and toys), strong digital and loyalty growth, improved fulfillment metrics, and raised guidance — all supported by strategic investments in stores, remodels, supply chain and AI. However, a meaningful portion of margin and EPS upside in the quarter was driven by a large one-time tariff refund ($994M pretax / $1.65 EPS), apparel and home remain underperforming and SG&A is rising. Management emphasized that underlying performance excluding refunds is healthy (adjusted EPS ex-refunds up ~20% in Q2) and that they are early in a multi-year transformation. Overall, the positives and momentum reported materially outweigh the caveats and one-time benefits, though sustainable improvement will depend on continued execution across apparel, home, inventory consistency and disciplined capital deployment.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Target raised its full‑year outlook, now expecting net sales to grow around 5% (up 1 percentage point from the prior outlook) and full‑year operating margin (excluding IEEPA tariff refunds) to be roughly 0.5 percentage points higher than last year’s adjusted 4.6% rate; EPS guidance was increased from $7.50–$8.50 to $9.90–$10.90 (the updated range includes a $1.65 benefit from Q2 tariff refunds, which were a ~$994 million pretax reduction of cost of sales, and excluding those refunds the midpoint is about $0.75 higher than the prior midpoint), management reiterated it expects ~ $5.0 billion of CapEx for the year ($2.4 billion deployed YTD, up ~30%), paid $518 million of dividends in Q2 (just over $1.0 billion YTD) while targeting a longer‑term ~40% payout ratio, and said it expects capacity to resume share repurchases in H2 subject to operating results, cash generation and maintaining its middle‑A credit ratings.
Target Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a clear post-2023 recovery with improving margins and meaningfully stronger TTM free cash flow, supporting investment and shareholder returns. Offsetting this, profitability is still below 2022 peaks and leverage remains elevated (debt above equity), which increases sensitivity in a low-margin retail model.
Income Statement
63PositiveBalance Sheet
58NeutralCash Flow
72Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 107.70B | 104.78B | 106.57B | 107.41B | 109.12B | 106.00B |
| Gross Profit | 31.56B | 29.27B | 30.06B | 29.58B | 26.81B | 31.04B |
| EBITDA | 9.26B | 8.35B | 8.65B | 8.60B | 6.60B | 11.97B |
| Net Income | 4.39B | 3.71B | 4.09B | 4.14B | 2.78B | 6.95B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 61.23B | 59.49B | 57.77B | 55.36B | 53.34B | 53.81B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 5.41B | 5.49B | 4.76B | 3.81B | 2.23B | 5.91B |
| Total Debt | 18.70B | 20.29B | 19.88B | 19.65B | 19.07B | 16.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 43.39B | 43.33B | 43.10B | 41.92B | 42.10B | 40.98B |
| Stockholders Equity | 17.84B | 16.16B | 14.67B | 13.43B | 11.23B | 12.83B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.55B | 2.83B | 4.48B | 3.81B | -1.51B | 5.08B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.72B | 6.56B | 7.37B | 8.62B | 4.02B | 8.63B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.19B | -3.65B | -2.86B | -4.76B | -5.50B | -3.15B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -3.46B | -2.19B | -3.55B | -2.29B | -2.20B | -8.07B |
Target Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TGT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 158.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 154.31, above the 50-day MA of 156.42, and above the 200-day MA of 134.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.73 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.33 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.33 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TGT.
Target Risk Analysis
Target disclosed 17 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Target reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Latest Risks Added
0 New RisksTarget Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
COST83Outperform
BJ80Outperform
WMT79Outperform
DG70Outperform- TGT68Neutral
KR60Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 83Outperform | $466.86B | 50.70 | 28.02% | 0.54% | 10.14% | 13.92% |
| BJ | 80Outperform | $13.82B | 23.73 | 27.35% | ― | 9.09% | 4.77% |
| WMT | 79Outperform | $995.84B | 45.31 | 22.74% | 0.78% | 6.16% | 4.00% |
| DG | 70Outperform | $29.51B | 17.30 | 19.56% | 1.76% | 4.77% | 42.79% |
| TGT | 68Neutral | $71.97B | 16.36 | 26.66% | 2.89% | 1.95% | 12.49% |
| Sector * | 62Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% |
| KR | 60Neutral | $39.98B | 36.59 | 17.17% | 2.13% | 1.58% | -53.21% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGT | Target Corp | 158.41 | 71.21 | 81.66% | |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corp. | 1053.56 | 143.37 | 15.75% | |
| DG | Dollar General Corp | 133.75 | 35.24 | 35.78% | |
| KR | Kroger Company | 67.70 | 4.69 | 7.44% | |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | 125.52 | 23.95 | 23.58% | |
| BJ | Bj's Wholesale Club Holdings | 109.40 | 17.50 | 19.04% |
Target Corporate Events
Target Boosts Liquidity with New Revolving Credit Facility
PositiveOn August 14, 2026, Target entered into a new five-year $4.0 billion unsecured revolving credit facility with a syndicate of major banks, replacing and consolidating its previous credit arrangements. The agreement, which can be increased by up to $1....
Target strengthens board with Joe DePinto appointment
PositiveOn July 18, 2026, Target’s board elected former 7-Eleven President & CEO Joe DePinto as a director, with his appointment effective August 1, 2026, and named him to the Audit & Risk Committee and the Infrastructure & Finance Committe...
Target Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Auditor and Pay Structure
PositiveAt its June 10, 2026 annual meeting of shareholders, Target Corporation secured strong investor backing for all 12 director nominees and ratified Ernst & Young LLP as its independent auditor for fiscal 2026, while also gaining advisory approval o...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2026