Target (TGT) Risk Analysis

A large part of our business is dependent on our ability to make trend-right decisions and effectively manage our inventory in a broad range of merchandise categories, including apparel, accessories, home décor, electronics, toys, seasonal offerings, food and beverage, and others. If we do not obtain accurate and relevant data on guest preferences, predict and quickly respond to changing consumer preferences, spending patterns, and other lifestyle decisions, emphasize the correct categories, implement competitive and effective pricing and promotion strategies, or personalize our offerings to our guests, we may experience lost sales, spoilage, and increased inventory markdowns, which could adversely affect our results of operations. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many guests significantly reduced their spending on dining, travel, lodging, and other leisure activities outside their homes, which may have contributed to our increased sales, particularly for essential items and merchandise associated with guests spending more time at home. If we are unable to effectively adapt if or when guests increase spending on other categories, it could lead to lower sales and adversely affect our results of operations.

We believe that one of the reasons our shareholders, guests, team members, and vendors choose Target is the positive reputation we have built over many years for serving those constituencies and the communities in which we operate. To be successful in the future, we must continue to preserve Target's reputation. Our reputation is based in large part on perceptions, both about us and others with whom we do business, and broad access to social media makes it easy for anyone to provide public feedback that can influence perceptions of Target. It may be difficult to control negative publicity, regardless of whether it is accurate. Target’s responses to crises and our position or perceived lack of position on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) matters, such as sustainability, responsible sourcing, and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I), and any perceived lack of transparency about those matters, could harm our reputation. While reputations may take decades to build, negative incidents involving us or others with whom we do business can quickly erode trust and confidence and can result in consumer boycotts, workforce unrest or walkouts, government investigations, or litigation. For example, we have a limited ability to end our relationship with CVS, which leases space to operate their clinics and pharmacies within our stores. If our guests have negative experiences with or unfavorably view CVS or other companies with whom we have relationships, it could cause them to reduce or stop their business with us. Negative reputational incidents could adversely affect our business and results of operations, including through lost sales, loss of new store and development opportunities, or team member retention and recruiting difficulties.

Nearly all of our sales are in the U.S., making our results highly dependent on the health of the U.S. economy and U.S. consumer confidence, which can be affected by a variety of factors, including housing prices, unemployment rates, and inflation. A deterioration in U.S. macroeconomic conditions or consumer confidence, the likelihood of which is made more uncertain by the unknown duration, severity, and lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent increases in the inflation rate, could adversely affect our business in many ways, including slowing sales growth, reducing overall sales, and reducing gross margins. Such a deterioration could adversely affect additional areas of our business, such as asset impairment evaluations and the amount of credit card profit-sharing revenue payments we receive under our credit card program with TD Bank Group (TD), which owns the receivables generated by our proprietary credit cards. We could also receive lower profit-sharing payments if changes in consumer preferences regarding use of revolving credit cards adversely affect the volume of new credit accounts, the amount of credit card program balances, and/or the ability of credit card holders to pay their balances.

We are dependent on a stable, liquid, and well-functioning financial system to fund our operations and capital investments. Our continued access to financial markets depends on multiple factors including the condition of debt capital markets, our operating performance, and maintaining strong credit ratings. If rating agencies lower our credit ratings, it could adversely affect our ability to access the debt markets, our cost of funds, and other terms for new debt issuances. Each of the credit rating agencies reviews its rating periodically, and there is no guarantee our current credit rating will remain the same. In addition, we use a variety of derivative products to manage our exposure to market risk, principally interest rate fluctuations. Disruptions or turmoil in the financial markets could reduce our ability to fund our operations and capital investments, and lead to losses on derivative positions resulting from counterparty failures, which could adversely affect our financial position and results of operations.

We regularly receive and store information about our guests, team members, vendors, and other third parties. We have programs in place to detect, contain, and respond to data security incidents. However, because the techniques used to obtain unauthorized access, disable or degrade service, or sabotage systems change frequently and may be difficult to detect for long periods, we may be unable to anticipate these techniques or implement adequate preventive measures. In addition, hardware, software, or applications we develop or procure from third parties may contain defects in design or manufacture or other problems that could unexpectedly compromise information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy. Unauthorized parties may also attempt to gain access to our systems or facilities, or those of third parties with whom we do business, through fraud, trickery, or other forms of deceiving our team members, contractors, and vendors. The increase in remote working arrangements by our team members, vendors, and other third parties also increases the risk of a data security compromise and the possible attack surfaces. Although we conduct training as part of our information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy efforts, that training cannot be completely effective in preventing those attacks from being successful. Our only significant data security incident was a data breach that occurred in 2013 and went undetected for several weeks. Both we and our vendors have experienced data security incidents since that data breach; however, to date, these other incidents have not been material to our results of operations. Based on the prominence and notoriety of our prior significant data breach, even minor additional data security incidents could draw greater scrutiny. If we, our vendors, or other third parties with whom we do business experience additional significant data security incidents or fail to detect and appropriately respond to significant incidents, we could be exposed to government enforcement actions and private litigation. In addition, our guests could lose confidence in our ability to protect their information, stop using our RedCards or loyalty programs, or stop shopping with us altogether, which could adversely affect our reputation, sales, and results of operations. The legal and regulatory environment regarding information security, cybersecurity, and data privacy is dynamic, increasingly demanding, and has enhanced requirements for using and treating personal data. Complying with current or contemplated data protection laws and regulations may cause us to incur substantial costs, require changes to our business practices, limit our ability to obtain data used to provide a differentiated guest experience, and expose us to further litigation and regulatory risks, each of which could adversely affect our results of operations.

We rely extensively on computer systems throughout our business. We also rely on continued and unimpeded access to the Internet to use our computer systems. An increase in remote working arrangements by our team members, vendors, and other third parties, which was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has amplified our already extensive reliance on computer systems and on our continued and unimpeded access to the Internet to use those systems, as well as the risks related to that reliance. Our systems are subject to damage or interruption from power outages, telecommunications failures, computer viruses, malicious attacks, security breaches, catastrophic events, and implementation errors. If our systems are damaged, disrupted, or fail to function properly or reliably, we may incur substantial repair or replacement costs, experience data loss or theft and impediments to our ability to manage inventories or process guest transactions, and encounter lost guest confidence, which could require additional promotional activities to attract guests and otherwise adversely affect our results of operations. We continually invest to maintain and update our computer systems. Implementing significant system changes increases the risk of computer system disruption. The potential problems and interruptions associated with implementing technology initiatives, as well as providing training and support for those initiatives, could disrupt or reduce our operational efficiency, and could negatively impact guest experiences and guest confidence. For example, in the past, we have experienced disruptions in our point-of-sale system that prevented our ability to process debit or credit transactions, negatively impacted some guests’ experiences, and generated negative publicity.

Our business is subject to a wide array of laws and regulations. Our expenses could increase and our operations could be adversely affected by law changes or adverse judicial developments involving an employer's obligation to recognize collective bargaining units, minimum wage requirements, advance scheduling notice requirements, health care or other mandates, the classification of exempt and non-exempt employees, and the classification of workers as either employees or independent contractors (particularly as it applies to our Shipt subsidiary, a technology company that connects Shipt members through its online marketplace with a network of independent contractors who select, purchase, and deliver groceries and household essentials ordered from Target and other retailers). The classification of workers as employees or independent contractors, in particular, is an area that is experiencing legal challenges and legislative changes. If our Shipt subsidiary is required to treat its independent contractor network as employees, it could result in higher compensation and benefit costs. Changes in the legal or regulatory environment affecting information security, cybersecurity and data privacy, product safety, payment methods and related fees, responsible sourcing, supply chain transparency, environmental protection, waste management, climate change, or other ESG matters, among others, could cause our expenses to increase without an ability to pass through any increased expenses through higher prices. In addition, if we fail to comply with other applicable laws and regulations, including the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and other anti-bribery laws, we could be subject to reputation and legal risk, including government enforcement action and class action civil litigation, which could adversely affect our results of operations by increasing our costs, reducing our margins, and lowering our sales.

Several factors influence our effective income tax rate, including tax laws and regulations, the related interpretations, and our ability to sustain our reporting positions on examination. Changes in any of those factors could change our effective tax rate, which could adversely affect our net income. In addition, changes in our operations both in and outside of the U.S. may cause greater volatility in our effective tax rate.

Our business depends, in part, on our ability to remodel existing stores and build new stores in a manner that achieves appropriate returns on our capital investment. Our store remodel program uses a custom approach based on the characteristics of each store and surrounding neighborhood, and is expected to be a continuous part of our operations to allow us to meet evolving expectations for in-store experience, fulfillment, and other changes in our business over time. When building new stores, we compete with other retailers and businesses for suitable locations for our stores. Pursuing the wrong remodel or new store opportunities and any delays, cost increases, disruptions, or other uncertainties related to those opportunities could adversely affect our results of operations. We are making, and expect to continue to make, significant investments in technology and replenishment and fulfillment infrastructure to improve guest experiences across multiple channels, improve the speed, accuracy, and cost-efficiency of our supply chain and inventory management systems, and support our current and expected sales levels. The effectiveness of these investments can be less predictable than remodeling stores, and might not provide the anticipated benefits. Pursuing the wrong investment opportunities, being unable to make new concepts scalable, or misjudging our replenishment and fulfillment capacity needs could result in the loss of our competitive position and adversely affect our financial condition or results of operations.