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Steel Dynamics
(NASDAQ:STLD)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$244.00
â–¼(-1.26% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/20/26
STLD scores 61 primarily because financial performance is solid but not peak-cycle (normalized margins and uneven cash conversion), while technicals are weak with the stock below key moving averages. The latest earnings call was a meaningful positive due to strong Q2 execution and confident H2/2027 guidance tied to the aluminum ramp, but valuation and yield appear only moderate based on the provided P/E and dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High steel-mill utilization and operating scale
Operating above industry utilization indicates competitive execution and strong asset productivity. Sustained throughput can support lower unit costs, stronger margins and more resilient cash generation across the steel cycle.
Negative Factors
Steel margins remain below prior-cycle peaks
Normalized margins show that profitability remains exposed to steel prices, spreads and end-market demand. If pricing weakens or input costs rise, earnings could remain materially below the exceptional levels previously achieved.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High steel-mill utilization and operating scale
Operating above industry utilization indicates competitive execution and strong asset productivity. Sustained throughput can support lower unit costs, stronger margins and more resilient cash generation across the steel cycle.
Read all positive factors
Steel Dynamics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySteel Dynamics (STLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$31.39B
Dividend Yield0.9%
Average Volume (3M)1.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)20.7
Beta (1Y)1.31
Revenue Growth19.77%
EPS Growth60.80%
CountryUS
Employees14,400
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)11.07
Shares Outstanding143,328,100
10 Day Avg. Volume1,189,684
30 Day Avg. Volume1,277,511
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio49.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$273.44Price Target Upside10.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)16.63
Revenue Forecast (FY)$23.52B
Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel p...
How the Company Makes Money
Steel Dynamics makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and related metal products, supplemented by earnings from metals recycling and downstream fabrication/processing services.
1) Steel production and sales (core revenue stream): ST...
Steel Dynamics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 20, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a broadly positive operational and financial picture: record steel shipments, strong adjusted EBITDA, improving steel pricing and spreads, robust fabrication demand and backlog growth, meaningful progress on the aluminum ramp with large long-term EBITDA potential, and strong liquidity and capital return activity. Notable near-term headwinds include a tragic safety incident, aluminum startup issues (including a $16 million impairment and lower-than-expected shipments in Q2), working capital drag, and trade/import uncertainties. Management provided confident forward commentary on aluminum ramp-up, expected H2 improvement, and a disciplined capital allocation approach.Positive Updates
Record Steel Shipments and Strong Profitability
Record quarterly steel shipments of 3.7 million tons; adjusted EBITDA of $921 million; net income of $534 million ($3.69 per diluted share); revenues of $6.1 billion and operating income of $700 million (sequentially higher).
Negative Updates
Workplace Fatality and Safety Concern
Tragic fatal accident in April involving a New Process Steel team member (Elijah Jones); company emphasized renewed focus on safety and goal of zero incidents.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Steel Shipments and Strong Profitability
Record quarterly steel shipments of 3.7 million tons; adjusted EBITDA of $921 million; net income of $534 million ($3.69 per diluted share); revenues of $6.1 billion and operating income of $700 million (sequentially higher).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that ramping aluminum and strong steel fundamentals should drive sharply improved results in H2 2026 and into 2027: Q2 highlights included record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons, adjusted EBITDA of $921 million, net income of $534 million ($3.69 per diluted share), revenues of $6.1 billion and operating income of $700 million (steel operating income $721 million; mills at 90% utilization vs. industry ~81%); aluminum produced 84,000 metric tons in Q2 (~50% of capability) and shipped 53,000 metric tons (up from 22,500 in Q1) with a 650,000 tpa nameplate rolling capacity, management expecting to exit 2026 at a monthly rate of at least 90% and reach full volume in 2027 while Q2 aluminum startup losses were $33 million (48% sequential improvement) and a $16 million non‑cash impairment was recorded; through‑cycle EBITDA for the aluminum platform is targeted at $650M–$700M plus $40M–$50M for metals recycling, and recent growth projects are estimated to provide over $1.4 billion of through‑cycle annual EBITDA capability; cash flow from operations was $428 million in Q2, liquidity stood at $2.0 billion (cash & investments $800M, revolver $1.2B), Q2 capex was $124M ($262M YTD) with H2 2026 capex expected to be $300M–$350M, and the company repurchased $350M of stock year‑to‑date with $489M remaining authorization—working capital increases tied to higher prices are expected to be a funding source in the back half.Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
64
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 20.54B | 18.18B | 17.54B | 18.80B | 22.26B | 18.41B |
| Gross Profit | 3.00B | 2.36B | 2.80B | 4.05B | 6.12B | 5.36B |
| EBITDA | 2.97B | 2.11B | 2.52B | 3.73B | 5.50B | 4.61B |
| Net Income | 1.61B | 1.19B | 1.54B | 2.45B | 3.86B | 3.21B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.11B | 16.41B | 14.94B | 14.91B | 14.16B | 12.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 567.71M | 769.88M | 737.27M | 2.12B | 2.26B | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 4.18B | 4.21B | 3.35B | 3.07B | 3.07B | 3.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.75B | 7.48B | 5.99B | 6.07B | 6.06B | 6.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.42B | 8.96B | 8.93B | 8.87B | 8.13B | 6.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 955.56M | 501.51M | -23.50M | 1.86B | 3.55B | 1.20B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.57B | 1.45B | 1.84B | 3.52B | 4.46B | 2.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -747.61M | -974.96M | -1.30B | -1.97B | -1.88B | -999.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -714.26M | -294.31M | -1.35B | -1.78B | -2.20B | -1.33B |
Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis
Negative
247.11
Price Trends
247.54
Negative
236.31
Negative
205.06
Positive
Market Momentum
-1.33
Positive
29.62
Positive
7.16
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 247.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 254.82, below the 50-day MA of 247.54, and above the 200-day MA of 205.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.33 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.62 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.16 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STLD.
Steel Dynamics Risk Analysis
Steel Dynamics disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Steel Dynamics reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $19.42B | 22.42 | 12.35% | 1.20% | 15.44% | 25.45% | |
73 Outperform | $54.56B | 19.41 | 13.53% | 0.90% | 17.19% | 126.38% | |
71 Outperform | $7.22B | 12.39 | 13.65% | 1.10% | 15.23% | 1535.96% | |
64 Neutral | $53.17B | 30.58 | 3.31% | 0.86% | 3.25% | -27.63% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $31.39B | 20.66 | 17.60% | 0.83% | 19.77% | 60.80% | |
45 Neutral | $17.14B | 18.73 | 2.27% | 3.10% | -3.30% | 164.60% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
STLD
Steel Dynamics
228.68
97.57
74.42%
MT
ArcelorMittal
72.20
38.59
114.82%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
66.31
8.08
13.88%
NUE
Nucor
243.63
97.66
66.90%
PKX
POSCO
57.34
1.58
2.83%
RS
Reliance Steel
387.89
97.71
33.67%
Steel Dynamics Corporate Events
Dividends
Steel Dynamics Announces Third Quarter Cash Dividend Declaration
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a third quarter cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, reinforcing its ongoing capital return to shareholders. The dividend will be paid to shareholders of r...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Steel Dynamics Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Reshuffle
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Steel Dynamics announced on August 4, 2026, that long-time Chief Financial Officer Theresa E. Wagler will become president and chief executive officer on January 1, 2027, as co-founder Mark D. Millett retires from the CEO role and transitions to e...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Steel Dynamics Raises Q2 Guidance on Strong Steel Demand
Positive
Jun 18, 2026
On June 17, 2026, Steel Dynamics issued second-quarter 2026 earnings guidance of $3.51 to $3.55 per diluted share, up from $2.78 in the first quarter and $2.01 a year earlier, despite a $16 million reduction from asset write-downs tied to relocati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.