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Steel Dynamics
(NASDAQ:STLD)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$277.00
â–²(19.87% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/20/26
STLD scores well primarily on solid financial quality (healthy profitability and a strong balance sheet) and a very positive earnings outlook emphasizing strong steel pricing/spreads and operational momentum into 2027. Technicals are supportive with positive momentum and the stock trading above key moving averages. The main offset is valuation, with a mid-to-higher P/E for a cyclical business and a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High utilization and differentiated steel platform
Operating at 92% utilization while serving differentiated products and internal manufacturing businesses indicates strong asset productivity and customer integration. These capabilities can support better capacity absorption, market share, and resilience than a purely commodity steel platform over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Steel-cycle sensitivity and below-peak margins
Profitability remains exposed to steel pricing, spreads, demand, imports, and input costs, as shown by margins well below prior-cycle peaks. Even with healthy current earnings, this cyclicality can limit the durability of margins and make future results sensitive to weaker industry conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High utilization and differentiated steel platform
Operating at 92% utilization while serving differentiated products and internal manufacturing businesses indicates strong asset productivity and customer integration. These capabilities can support better capacity absorption, market share, and resilience than a purely commodity steel platform over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Steel Dynamics Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Breaks down revenue sources, providing insight into the diversity of income streams and potential vulnerabilities or growth areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlySteel Dynamics (STLD) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$34.62B
Dividend Yield0.87%
Average Volume (3M)986.71K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.7
Beta (1Y)1.28
Revenue Growth26.00%
EPS Growth79.81%
CountryUS
Employees14,400
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)13.61
Shares Outstanding143,328,100
10 Day Avg. Volume993,410
30 Day Avg. Volume986,714
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.12
Price to Book (P/B)2.80
Price to Sales (P/S)1.38
P/FCF Ratio49.94
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.58
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit9.96
Enterprise Value/Ebitda10.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$274.60Price Target Upside18.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)17.7
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.13B
Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions. The Steel Operations segment is responsible for producing a broad range of steel p...
How the Company Makes Money
Steel Dynamics makes money primarily by producing and selling steel and by processing and selling recycled metals, supplemented by downstream fabrication services. (1) Steel operations: The company generates revenue by melting scrap (and other met...
Steel Dynamics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 19, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 27, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Steel operations delivered record shipments, higher earnings, strong utilization, favorable demand conditions, and robust cash generation. Fabrication, long products, capital returns, and the broader growth pipeline were also presented favorably. The principal setbacks were the aluminum mill's ramp-related operating loss and yield issue, the metals recycling earnings decline, and results coming in just below prior guidance; however, management said the aluminum issue was resolved and remained optimistic about 2027 improvement.Positive Updates
Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Third-quarter 2026 net income was $756 million, or $5.26 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, revenue of $6.5 billion, and operating income just over $1 billion. Operating income was higher than the sequential second quarter, driven by higher realized steel pricing and record steel shipments.
Negative Updates
Quarterly Results Below Earlier Guidance
The company came in just shy of its earlier guidance range because of late-September foreign-currency movements and unrealized mark-to-market adjustments on aluminum hedging of just under $30 million.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Third-Quarter Financial Performance
Third-quarter 2026 net income was $756 million, or $5.26 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, revenue of $6.5 billion, and operating income just over $1 billion. Operating income was higher than the sequential second quarter, driven by higher realized steel pricing and record steel shipments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects favorable flat-rolled steel market dynamics to positively impact fourth quarter results and into 2027, with steel pricing momentum to continue and margins or spreads to remain very, very strong to slightly upward in the coming months; fabrication is expected to see an uplift on margins, volumes and pricing in 2027. Aluminum volumes, cost structure and profitability are expected to improve in the fourth quarter and throughout 2027, with volume and profitability expected to increase sharply in the fourth quarter and continue improving through 2027; the hot strip mill was operating at 75% thus far in October and the company still believes it can achieve 90% by the end of the year, while the second CASH line will be operational in the first quarter of '27, higher recycled content will be achieved in the first half of '27, and automotive will have a significant more amount in 2027, with product mix optimized sometime in that 2028 period. At nameplate capacity and expected product mix, through-cycle EBITDA expectation for past-normalized market conditions remains at $650 million to $700 million, plus a further $40 million to $50 million for the metals recycling platform; aluminum is expected to be EBIT positive in the first quarter and onward for 2027. Fourth quarter capital investments are estimated in that same range as $150 million, while 2027 CapEx might be in the range of $600-plus million, but that needs to be refined; Sinton is expected to grow to 250,000 tons a month or perhaps more, and the structural mill is expected to add about 80,000 tons to 100,000 tons of extra stuff.Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 22.22B | 18.18B | 17.54B | 18.80B | 22.26B | 18.41B |
| Gross Profit | 3.52B | 2.36B | 2.80B | 4.05B | 6.12B | 5.36B |
| EBITDA | 3.50B | 2.11B | 2.52B | 3.73B | 5.50B | 4.61B |
| Net Income | 1.96B | 1.19B | 1.54B | 2.45B | 3.86B | 3.21B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 17.84B | 16.41B | 14.94B | 14.91B | 14.16B | 12.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 928.56M | 769.88M | 737.27M | 2.12B | 2.26B | 1.24B |
| Total Debt | 4.20B | 4.21B | 3.35B | 3.07B | 3.07B | 3.11B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.06B | 7.48B | 5.99B | 6.07B | 6.06B | 6.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.84B | 8.96B | 8.93B | 8.87B | 8.13B | 6.30B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.09B | 501.51M | -23.50M | 1.86B | 3.55B | 1.20B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.69B | 1.45B | 1.84B | 3.52B | 4.46B | 2.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -778.68M | -974.96M | -1.30B | -1.97B | -1.88B | -999.42M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -757.94M | -294.31M | -1.35B | -1.78B | -2.20B | -1.33B |
Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis
Positive
231.08
Price Trends
237.04
Positive
243.40
Negative
221.02
Positive
Market Momentum
1.96
Negative
52.88
Neutral
67.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 231.08 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 236.99, below the 50-day MA of 237.04, and above the 200-day MA of 221.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 67.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STLD.
Steel Dynamics Risk Analysis
Steel Dynamics disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Steel Dynamics reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $34.62B | 17.75 | 20.97% | 0.87% | 26.00% | 79.81% | |
73 Outperform | $58.56B | 20.57 | 13.53% | 0.87% | 17.19% | 126.38% | |
69 Neutral | $6.90B | 10.62 | 14.62% | 1.21% | 20.46% | 658.36% | |
64 Neutral | $44.41B | 24.99 | 3.31% | 1.22% | 3.25% | -27.63% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $9.39B | 19.16 | 4.17% | 2.95% | 8.98% | -21.39% | |
55 Neutral | $7.93B | -15.62 | -8.14% | 6.42% | 8.10% | 75.20% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
STLD
Steel Dynamics
241.53
85.19
54.49%
MT
ArcelorMittal
59.43
20.28
51.82%
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs
13.90
0.13
0.94%
CMC
Commercial Metals Company
62.77
3.07
5.14%
GGB
Gerdau SA
5.10
1.82
55.44%
NUE
Nucor
258.11
115.62
81.14%
Steel Dynamics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Steel Dynamics Elevates Leadership to Drive Strategic Growth
Positive
Oct 19, 2026
On October 19, 2026, Steel Dynamics announced a series of leadership promotions to support its long-term growth strategy and operational excellence, elevating key executives across steel fabrication, environmental sustainability and energy, and fl...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Steel Dynamics Raises Q3 Earnings Guidance on Strong Demand
Positive
Sep 18, 2026
On September 17, 2026, Steel Dynamics issued earnings guidance for the third quarter of 2026, forecasting diluted earnings per share of $5.34 to $5.38, up sharply from $3.69 in the second quarter and $2.74 a year earlier, reflecting strong pricing...
Dividends
Steel Dynamics Announces Third Quarter Cash Dividend Declaration
Positive
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced that its board of directors declared a third quarter cash dividend of $0.53 per common share, reinforcing its ongoing capital return to shareholders. The dividend will be paid to shareholders of r...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Steel Dynamics Announces CEO Transition and Leadership Reshuffle
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Steel Dynamics announced on August 4, 2026, that long-time Chief Financial Officer Theresa E. Wagler will become president and chief executive officer on January 1, 2027, as co-founder Mark D. Millett retires from the CEO role and transitions to e...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.