Steel Dynamics (STLD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $20.01B
• Dividend Yield: 1.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.49M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 17.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.14
• Revenue Growth: -7.42%
• EPS Growth: -48.08%
• Country: US
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Steel
• EPS (TTM): 1.44
• Shares Outstanding: 148,453,870
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,150,877
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,487,188
• PEG Ratio: -0.72
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.17
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -121.34
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $146.50
• Price Target Upside: 8.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

Steel Dynamics demonstrates solid financial stability with a strong balance sheet and positive earnings outlook reflected in the recent earnings call. While technical indicators suggest potential caution due to overbought conditions, the company's fair valuation supports its current market price. Key strengths include operational efficiencies and future growth initiatives, though challenges in revenue growth and rising costs remain.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

STLD is anticipated to have rising earnings, cash flow, and capital returns even if steel prices decrease.

Free Cash Flow

The completion of the company’s capex cycle on its two major recent investments clears the way for higher through-the-cycle free cash flow generation.

Product Portfolio

Steel Dynamics is a best-in-class domestic US steel producer, with a product portfolio that is relatively well-positioned to benefit from expanded Section 232 tariffs.

Negative Factors

Sinton Plant

Sinton, which has been a material drag on earnings since 2022, is on the cusp of turning around and should start contributing to earnings.

Steel Dynamics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Steel Dynamics, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer and metal recycler in the United States. It operates through three segments: Steel Operations, Metals Recycling Operations, and Steel Fabrication Operations. The Steel Operations segment offers hot roll, cold roll, and coated steel products; parallel flange beams and channel sections, flat bars, large unequal leg angles, and reinforcing bars, as well as standard strength carbon, intermediate alloy hardness, and premium grade rail products; and engineered special-bar-quality products, merchant-bar-quality products, and other engineered round steel bars. The company also engages in turning, polishing, straightening, chamfering, threading, precision saw-cutting, and heat treating of bar products; and cutting to length, straightening, hole punching, shot blasting, welding, galvanizing, and coating of specialty products. Its products are used in construction, automotive, manufacturing, transportation, heavy and agriculture equipment, and pipe and tube markets. This segment sells directly to end-users, steel fabricators, and service centers. The Metals Recycling Operations segment purchases, processes, and resells ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals into reusable forms and grades. Its ferrous products include heavy melting steel, busheling, bundled scrap, shredded scrap, steel turnings, and cast-iron products; and nonferrous products comprise aluminum, brass, copper, stainless steel, and other nonferrous metals. This segment also provides transportation logistics, marketing, brokerage, and scrap management services. The Steel Fabrication Operations segment produces non-residential steel building components, such as steel joists, girders, trusses, and steel deck products. The company also exports its products. Steel Dynamics, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

How the Company Makes Money

Steel Dynamics generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of steel products. The company's steel operations segment is its largest source of income, producing and selling numerous types of steel products to diverse markets, including construction, automotive, and manufacturing industries. The metals recycling segment contributes to revenue by acquiring and processing scrap metal, which is sold to steel mills, including those owned by Steel Dynamics, thus supporting a vertically integrated model. Additionally, the steel fabrication segment adds revenue through the production and sale of fabricated steel products used in construction. Strategic partnerships and acquisitions, along with a focus on operational efficiency and cost control, further enhance the company's profitability.

Steel Dynamics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Steel Dynamics presents a stable financial position with strong balance sheet metrics. However, declining revenue and profitability margins in TTM highlight challenges in maintaining growth. The negative free cash flow also raises concerns about liquidity management. The company needs to focus on improving revenue streams and profitability to ensure long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Steel Dynamics shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM revenue shows a decline compared to the previous annual figures, indicating some challenges in maintaining growth. The gross profit margin stands at 13.36% for TTM, which is moderate but shows a decline compared to last year. Net profit margin for TTM is 6.80%, also lower than the previous year, suggesting reduced profitability. The EBITDA margin of 10.93% in TTM reflects a solid operational efficiency despite declining revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Steel Dynamics is strong, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48 in TTM, indicating moderate leverage. The equity ratio of 55.39% suggests a robust capital structure, providing a cushion against liabilities. Return on equity for TTM is 13.26%, showing a respectable return on shareholders' investment, though it has declined from previous periods.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals some challenges with free cash flow being negative in TTM despite positive operating cash flow. The operating cash flow to net income ratio for TTM is 1.40, indicating solid cash generation relative to net income. However, the inability to generate positive free cash flow poses a risk and may affect future investments or debt repayments.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
17.22B	17.54B	18.80B	22.26B	18.41B	9.60B
	Gross Profit
2.30B	2.80B	4.05B	6.12B	5.36B	1.43B
	EBIT
1.47B	1.94B	3.15B	5.09B	4.30B	847.14M
	EBITDA
1.88B	2.52B	3.73B	5.50B	4.61B	1.19B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
1.17B	1.54B	2.45B	3.86B	3.21B	550.82M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.21B	737.27M	2.12B	2.26B	1.24B	1.37B
	Total Assets
15.93B	14.94B	14.91B	14.16B	12.53B	9.27B
	Total Debt
4.20B	3.23B	3.20B	3.07B	3.11B	3.10B
	Net Debt
3.01B	2.64B	1.80B	1.44B	1.86B	1.73B
	Total Liabilities
7.10B	5.99B	6.07B	6.06B	6.21B	4.92B
	Stockholders Equity
8.82B	8.93B	8.87B	8.13B	6.30B	4.35B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-157.31M	-23.50M	1.86B	3.55B	1.20B	-211.02M
	Operating Cash Flow
1.64B	1.84B	3.52B	4.46B	2.20B	987.03M
	Investing Cash Flow
-1.19B	-1.30B	-1.97B	-1.88B	-999.42M	-993.26M
	Financing Cash Flow
-305.46M	-1.35B	-1.78B	-2.20B	-1.33B	-7.05M

Steel Dynamics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 134.78
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STLD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 134.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 129.49, above the 50-day MA of 124.83, and above the 200-day MA of 125.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for STLD.

Steel Dynamics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RS	78 Outperform	$15.99B	21.80	10.27%	1.48%	-5.60%	-35.05%
NUE	74 Outperform	$26.80B	20.68	6.54%	1.88%	-10.88%	-66.97%
STLD	73 Outperform	$20.01B	17.82	13.08%	1.39%	-7.42%	-48.08%
PKX	70 Neutral	$12.78B	21.64	1.58%	3.64%	-9.79%	-45.76%
MT	67 Neutral	$25.09B	18.07	2.60%	1.38%	-8.56%	68.36%
X	61 Neutral	$9.14B	136.97	0.86%	0.49%	-14.79%	-88.78%
Sector *	50 Neutral	$1.98B	-1.06	-21.29%	3.61%	1.95%	-30.60%

Steel Dynamics Corporate Events

Steel Dynamics Announces Leadership Transition in Aluminum Group

On May 9, 2025, Steel Dynamics announced leadership transitions as Glenn Pushis will retire on October 1, 2025, to become CEO of McBride Capital Partners’ Project Aero, while continuing as a consultant for Steel Dynamics’ new aluminum facilities. Miguel Alvarez will take over as Senior Vice President Aluminum Group, overseeing the company’s aluminum operations and strategic investments. These changes reflect Steel Dynamics’ commitment to leadership development and its strategic focus on aluminum operations, which are expected to enhance its market positioning and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (STLD) stock is a Buy with a $158.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Steel Dynamics stock, see the STLD Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on STLD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, STLD is a Outperform.

Steel Dynamics demonstrates solid financial stability with a strong balance sheet and positive earnings outlook reflected in the recent earnings call. While technical indicators suggest potential caution due to overbought conditions, the company’s fair valuation supports its current market price. Key strengths include operational efficiencies and future growth initiatives, though challenges in revenue growth and rising costs remain.

To see Spark’s full report on STLD stock, click here.

Steel Dynamics Projects Strong Q1 2025 Earnings

On March 17, 2025, Steel Dynamics, Inc. announced its first quarter 2025 earnings guidance, projecting earnings per diluted share between $1.36 and $1.40. The company’s steel operations are expected to see increased profitability due to higher shipments, despite some metal margin compression. The Sinton Texas Flat Roll Division operated at over 90% production capacity, indicating a path to profitability by the second quarter. Metals recycling operations are also expected to perform better than the previous quarter, while steel fabrication earnings are anticipated to be lower due to seasonal factors. The company is advancing its aluminum operations, with significant progress in its Columbus, Mississippi mill and San Luis Potosi center. Additionally, Steel Dynamics increased its cash dividend by nine percent and authorized an additional $1.5 billion for share repurchases, reflecting confidence in its financial outlook.