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The ONE Group Hospitality
(NASDAQ:STKS)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-39.39% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/20/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—ongoing net losses, compressed margins, and very high leverage with declining equity—alongside a clear technical downtrend. Partially offsetting these risks are improved operating cash flow and earnings-call commentary pointing to operational improvements and guided adjusted EBITDA, with a modest positive influence from the COO appointment.
Positive Factors
Restaurant-level margin expansion
Improving restaurant-level margins across the major brands indicate that operating discipline, cost control and acquisition synergies are translating into stronger unit economics. If sustained, this provides a durable base for EBITDA improvement even with modest comparable-sales growth.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and shrinking equity
The heavy debt burden and declining equity base materially constrain financial flexibility. High leverage increases sensitivity to interest expense, refinancing conditions and earnings volatility, while leaving less balance-sheet capacity to absorb setbacks or finance expansion internally.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Restaurant-level margin expansion
Improving restaurant-level margins across the major brands indicate that operating discipline, cost control and acquisition synergies are translating into stronger unit economics. If sustained, this provides a durable base for EBITDA improvement even with modest comparable-sales growth.
Read all positive factors
The ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$35.49M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)23.29K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.40
Revenue Growth-4.06%
EPS Growth-154.36%
CountryUS
Employees9,500
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.82
Shares Outstanding31,689,024
10 Day Avg. Volume32,368
30 Day Avg. Volume23,294
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.48
Price to Sales (P/S)0.07
P/FCF Ratio-2.04
Enterprise Value/Market Cap26.07
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.29
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.19
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.50Price Target Upside172.73% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)$811.95M
The ONE Group Hospitality Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. is a global hospitality firm primarily involved in the development, ownership, operation, management, and licensing of restaurants and lounges. The company conducts its business through its distinct STK, Kona Grill,...
How the Company Makes Money
The ONE Group primarily generates revenue by operating full-service restaurants and lounges. The largest revenue stream is food and beverage sales (menu items and alcoholic/non-alcoholic beverages) sold to guests at company-owned and company-opera...
The ONE Group Hospitality Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented meaningful operational and financial progress: stronger cash generation (nearly tripled operating cash flow YTD), improved restaurant-level margins, sustained cost-of-sales improvement, positive comparable transactions across all segments, and a disciplined shift toward capital-efficient, asset-light growth (including a promising Benihana Express prototype). Offsetting these positives were a modest revenue decline (~3.3%), a ~9.7% decrease in adjusted EBITDA driven by higher marketing and G&A investments, continued net losses to common shareholders, and temporary headwinds from the World Cup, extreme weather and a delayed NYC relocation. Overall, management emphasized execution, liquidity improvement, and a conservative growth posture.Positive Updates
Strong Cash Generation and Debt Paydown
Operating cash flow for the first six months of 2026 nearly tripled year-over-year to approximately $32-$33 million (from $11 million), enabling repayment of over $6 million of debt year-to-date ($4M term loan, $2M revolver) and improved liquidity with $28.7 million available under the revolving facility.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Year-Over-Year
Total consolidated GAAP revenues decreased ~3.3% to $200–201 million (from $207 million prior year). Management attributes much of the decline to planned portfolio optimization and the delayed relocation of STK Downtown NYC, but top-line pressure remains a near-term headwind.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Cash Generation and Debt Paydown
Operating cash flow for the first six months of 2026 nearly tripled year-over-year to approximately $32-$33 million (from $11 million), enabling repayment of over $6 million of debt year-to-date ($4M term loan, $2M revolver) and improved liquidity with $28.7 million available under the revolving facility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management provided Q3 and full‑year 2026 targets: for Q3 they expect GAAP revenue of $176–$180M, consolidated comparable sales of 0%–2%, managed/franchise/license revenue of ~ $3M, company‑owned operating expenses of 85%–87% of company‑owned restaurant net revenue, adjusted G&A (ex‑stock comp) of about $12.5M, adjusted EBITDA of $12–$15M, and preopening expense of $1–$2M (noting Q3 historically represents ~10%–15% of full‑year contribution). For FY2026 they guide GAAP revenue of $805–$820M with comparable sales of 1%–2%, managed/franchise/license revenue of ~ $14M, company‑owned operating expenses ≈82% of company‑owned restaurant net revenue, adjusted G&A (ex‑stock comp) ≈ $50M, adjusted EBITDA $95–$105M, preopening $6.5–$7.5M, net interest expense $38–$39M, an effective tax rate of ~10%–20%, total capex (net of landlord allowances) $30M, and plans to open 6–10 new venues.The ONE Group Hospitality Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 800.51M | 805.72M | 673.34M | 332.77M | 316.64M | 277.18M |
| Gross Profit | 111.62M | 95.88M | 122.75M | 65.79M | 66.58M | 65.18M |
| EBITDA | 65.17M | 51.19M | 40.72M | 34.02M | 26.33M | 38.57M |
| Net Income | -82.03M | -92.24M | -15.82M | 4.72M | 13.53M | 31.35M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 885.30M | 884.20M | 959.35M | 317.25M | 291.02M | 229.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.36M | 4.17M | 27.58M | 21.05M | 55.12M | 23.61M |
| Total Debt | 658.69M | 651.10M | 641.02M | 199.29M | 183.63M | 132.64M |
| Total Liabilities | 771.25M | 772.72M | 756.75M | 249.88M | 222.43M | 169.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 118.48M | 115.47M | 205.25M | 69.18M | 69.71M | 61.43M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.49M | -27.28M | -27.37M | -22.77M | -7.38M | 19.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 51.94M | 30.31M | 44.19M | 30.78M | 25.25M | 30.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -49.07M | -57.59M | -441.39M | -53.55M | -32.63M | -11.47M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.04M | 3.87M | 404.34M | -11.25M | 39.10M | -20.27M |
The ONE Group Hospitality Technical Analysis
Negative
1.65
Price Trends
1.55
Negative
1.70
Negative
1.83
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Positive
19.94
Positive
9.48
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For STKS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.65 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.41, above the 50-day MA of 1.55, and below the 200-day MA of 1.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 19.94 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.48 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for STKS.
The ONE Group Hospitality Risk Analysis
The ONE Group Hospitality disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. The ONE Group Hospitality reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
The ONE Group Hospitality Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $90.68M | 13.67 | 9.84% | 1.23% | 6.14% | 53.60% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
52 Neutral | $154.07M | -4.82 | 29.24% | ― | -3.71% | 50.04% | |
48 Neutral | $35.49M | -0.29 | -69.17% | ― | -4.06% | -154.36% | |
46 Neutral | $68.97M | -2.88 | 50.91% | ― | 0.19% | 46.85% | |
42 Neutral | $32.68M | -0.44 | 40.16% | ― | -8.19% | -47.68% | |
41 Neutral | $16.15M | -5.09 | -9.79% | 5.09% | -9.48% | 77.31% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
STKS
The ONE Group Hospitality
1.12
-1.39
-55.38%
ARKR
Ark Restaurants
4.48
-2.58
-36.59%
BDL
Flanigan's Enterprises
48.79
17.07
53.80%
RRGB
Red Robin Gourmet
8.15
2.06
33.83%
NDLS
Noodles & Co
11.56
5.91
104.49%
THCH
TH International
1.02
-1.50
-59.52%
The ONE Group Hospitality Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
The ONE Group Hospitality Appoints New Chief Operating Officer
Positive
Sep 24, 2026
On September 22, 2026, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. appointed long‑time executive Caroline O’Mahony Baker as Chief Operating Officer, expanding her remit beyond the STK brand to include Grill Concepts and Benihana restaurant operati...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.