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Freightcar America
(NASDAQ:RAIL)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▼(-44.98% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is held down primarily by weak technicals (price well below major moving averages with negative momentum) and uneven fundamentals (TTM net loss and choppy revenue). Offsetting these are improved cash generation and a more positive earnings-call outlook supported by higher backlog, guidance, and expected cost savings, but these positives are not yet reflected in profitability or the chart.
Positive Factors
Backlog and market share
The sharply larger backlog and strong quarterly order share improve forward revenue visibility and indicate better commercial traction in a cyclical market. Converting this backlog into deliveries should support production utilization and provide a foundation for growth through 2026 and into 2027–2028.
Negative Factors
Margin compression
The steep decline in gross margin and adjusted EBITDA shows that current production volumes and fixed-cost absorption are not yet supporting durable profitability. Even if management expects recovery, sustained earnings improvement depends on executing the ramp and converting cost actions into realized margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and market share
The sharply larger backlog and strong quarterly order share improve forward revenue visibility and indicate better commercial traction in a cyclical market. Converting this backlog into deliveries should support production utilization and provide a foundation for growth through 2026 and into 2027–2028.
Read all positive factors
Freightcar America (RAIL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$138.71M
Dividend Yield1.97%
Average Volume (3M)349.15K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.07
Revenue Growth-0.50%
EPS Growth47.71%
CountryUS
Employees1,986
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.40
Shares Outstanding32,791,280
10 Day Avg. Volume486,615
30 Day Avg. Volume349,152
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.07
Price to Book (P/B)-3.28
Price to Sales (P/S)0.70
P/FCF Ratio11.21
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.83
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.85
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.78
Enterprise Value/Ebitda30.54
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.00Price Target Upside106.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)$430.75M
Freightcar America Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating through its subsidiaries, FreightCar America, Inc. specializes in the design, production, and sale of railcars and their associated components, primarily for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight across North A...
How the Company Makes Money
FreightCar America primarily generates revenue by selling newly manufactured freight railcars to customers such as railroads, railcar leasing companies, and commodity shippers. Revenue is typically recognized based on railcar orders and deliveries...
Freightcar America Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive strategic and commercial picture despite near‑term operational and accounting headwinds. Highlights include exceptional order intake and market share gains, a large, diversified backlog, meaningful aftermarket growth and acquisitions, a 50% productivity improvement, $12M of expected annualized structural savings, strong cash generation (+43% free cash flow YoY), and an improved balance sheet following a significant warrant exercise. Lowlights center on near‑term timing of deliveries that reduced Q2 revenue and margins (gross margin fell from 15.0% to 5.5%), adjusted EBITDA compression (from $9.3M to $1.2M), a reported net loss driven by a $24.9M non‑cash warrant remeasurement, $2.2M of realignment costs, and an industry demand environment still below replacement levels. Management attributes many negatives to timing rather than loss of commercial traction and expects sequential improvement as the second‑half ramp and cost savings take hold.Positive Updates
Exceptional Order Intake and Market Share
Booked ~3,000 units in the quarter, including ~2,600 new railcars; captured approximately 45% of all industry new railcar orders in the quarter (≈56% of addressable market excluding tank cars), marking the largest quarterly share in recent history.
Negative Updates
Revenue and Delivery Decline in the Quarter
Quarterly revenue was $113.1 million vs $118.6 million a year ago (down ≈4.6%); delivered 927 railcars vs 939 prior year (down ≈1.3%), reflecting later-than-expected production ramp and timing of shipments.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Exceptional Order Intake and Market Share
Booked ~3,000 units in the quarter, including ~2,600 new railcars; captured approximately 45% of all industry new railcar orders in the quarter (≈56% of addressable market excluding tank cars), marking the largest quarterly share in recent history.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance to 3,500–3,900 railcar deliveries, $410–$460 million of revenue and $36–$45 million of adjusted EBITDA, with full‑year capital expenditures of $7–$10 million (including $4–$5 million of maintenance). They closed Q2 with a backlog of 3,972 units (~$344 million, up ~93% in units and ~121% in value sequentially), Q2 deliveries of 927 and revenue of $113.1 million, and said aftermarket revenue grew 13% year‑over‑year and remains on plan. Q2 financials included $6.2 million gross profit (5.5% margin), adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 million (1% margin), $12.1 million of operating cash, $11.3 million of free cash flow (+43% YoY), $63 million cash on hand and ~ $7.3 million of debt reduction since year‑end; the company took $2.2 million of restructuring charges in Q2 to complete a realignment that they expect will generate ~ $12 million of annualized structural savings beginning in Q3. Management expects a meaningful second‑half production ramp, improved fixed‑cost absorption and margin recovery as backlog converts into deliveries.Freightcar America Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
44
Neutral
Balance Sheet
41
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 463.52M | 500.99M | 559.42M | 358.09M | 364.75M | 203.05M |
| Gross Profit | 57.96M | 73.19M | 67.04M | 41.76M | 25.82M | 11.46M |
| EBITDA | 12.87M | 12.90M | 39.51M | 18.14M | -5.82M | -11.00M |
| Net Income | -12.48M | 38.10M | -75.82M | -23.59M | -38.85M | -41.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 276.10M | 290.05M | 224.22M | 259.46M | 199.74M | 200.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 62.98M | 64.30M | 44.45M | 40.56M | 33.83M | 21.28M |
| Total Debt | 144.92M | 152.36M | 158.99M | 75.23M | 127.26M | 98.06M |
| Total Liabilities | 239.90M | 397.46M | 374.49M | 305.67M | 228.32M | 202.32M |
| Stockholders Equity | 36.20M | -107.41M | -150.27M | -46.21M | -28.58M | -1.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 17.90M | 31.40M | 39.91M | -7.95M | 3.69M | -57.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 21.22M | 34.78M | 44.93M | 4.77M | 11.50M | -55.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.10M | -9.14M | -5.02M | -4.37M | -7.82M | -1.68M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -9.49M | -5.79M | -36.02M | 2.25M | 7.99M | 29.27M |
Freightcar America Technical Analysis
Negative
7.27
Price Trends
6.67
Negative
7.50
Negative
8.77
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.70
Positive
21.64
Positive
14.57
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For RAIL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.97, above the 50-day MA of 6.67, and below the 200-day MA of 8.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 21.64 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.57 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for RAIL.
Freightcar America Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $45.70B | 33.75 | 12.17% | 0.43% | 13.25% | 16.83% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | $370.19M | 32.28 | 6.49% | 1.33% | 10.13% | -67.50% | |
57 Neutral | $1.18B | 11.01 | 6.57% | 3.47% | -25.64% | -52.74% | |
53 Neutral | $2.03B | 5.94 | 31.93% | 4.86% | -18.95% | 260.48% | |
49 Neutral | $138.71M | -10.58 | 21.95% | 1.97% | -0.50% | 47.71% | |
44 Neutral | $7.29M | -0.55 | -70.18% | ― | 191.88% | 51.03% |
* Industrials Sector Average
RAIL
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Freightcar America Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FreightCar America Ends Rights Plan, Reshapes Governance
Neutral
Oct 15, 2026
On October 14, 2026, FreightCar America entered into a Stockholder Agreement with investment entities collectively owning about 48.8% of its outstanding common stock. As part of this arrangement, the company agreed to terminate its Rights Agreemen...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
FreightCar America Adopts New Stockholder Rights Plan
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, FreightCar America’s Board adopted a new limited-duration stockholder rights plan and declared a dividend of one preferred share purchase right for each outstanding common share, replacing a similar plan that expired the s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.