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Papa John's International
(NASDAQ:PZZA)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$22.50
▼(-6.68% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial quality (negative equity, softer revenue and margin compression, and cooling free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by an elevated dividend yield and a positive refranchising event that supports an asset-light strategy.
Positive Factors
Scalable Franchise Model
Papa John’s larger franchised system creates recurring royalty revenue while shifting many labor, occupancy, and operating costs to franchisees. This asset-light structure can support capital efficiency and more scalable earnings as the brand expands over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative Shareholders’ Equity
Persistent negative equity leaves Papa John’s with a limited balance-sheet cushion against operating volatility. Even with lower TTM debt than the last annual report, the stretched capital structure can constrain financial flexibility and make leverage risk more consequential.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scalable Franchise Model
Papa John’s larger franchised system creates recurring royalty revenue while shifting many labor, occupancy, and operating costs to franchisees. This asset-light structure can support capital efficiency and more scalable earnings as the brand expands over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Papa John's International Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down top-line sales by business line—such as company stores, franchise royalties and international operations—to show where revenue is concentrated and which segments are expanding or underperforming, helping assess both growth and margin drivers.
Breaks down top-line sales by business line—such as company stores, franchise royalties and international operations—to show where revenue is concentrated and which segments are expanding or underperforming, helping assess both growth and margin drivers.
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The Fly
The FlyPapa John's International (PZZA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$746.66M
Dividend Yield8.11%
Average Volume (3M)1.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)28.0
Beta (1Y)0.96
Revenue Growth-5.65%
EPS Growth-64.96%
CountryUS
Employees9,400
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.81
Shares Outstanding32,921,688
10 Day Avg. Volume1,061,697
30 Day Avg. Volume1,587,720
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.68
Price to Book (P/B)-2.90
Price to Sales (P/S)0.63
P/FCF Ratio21.07
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.29Price Target Upside9.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.89B
Papa John's International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Papa John's International, Inc. is a global pizza chain that manages and grants franchises for its Papa John's branded delivery and take-out restaurants across the United States and internationally. The company's operations are divided into four p...
How the Company Makes Money
Papa John’s makes money primarily through a mix of (1) retail sales from company-owned restaurants and (2) recurring fees and other revenue tied to franchised restaurants, supplemented by supply chain and related services.
1) Company-owned restau...
Papa John's International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: meaningful progress on international growth, loyalty expansion, product innovation (Pan Pizza, sandwiches), brand extensions (retail sauce, Toy Story 5), and tangible supply-chain and company-owned store margin improvements. Offsetting these positives were notable North America weaknesses — mid-single-digit comparable sales declines driven by lower transactions and small-pizza mix shifts — along with an 8% decline in consolidated revenue, a modest adjusted EBITDA decline, commissary margin compression, and a small free cash flow outflow. Management reiterated cautious guidance and emphasized that the transformation is ongoing, with several initiatives expected to drive sequential improvement later in the year.Positive Updates
International Comparable Sales Momentum
International comparable sales grew ~3.6% (company stated six consecutive quarters of positive comps), with standout markets: U.K. comps up 11% (vs 7% prior quarter), Middle East comps +9%, and Asia Pacific +5%, driven by product innovation, partnerships and holiday demand.
Negative Updates
North America Comparable Sales Weakness
North America comparable sales finished the quarter down mid-single digits (management cited transaction declines and lower new customer acquisition; investor reference in Q&A indicated roughly -6.4% for the quarter), driven primarily by fewer orders and a shift to smaller, nonspecialty pizzas.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
International Comparable Sales Momentum
International comparable sales grew ~3.6% (company stated six consecutive quarters of positive comps), with standout markets: U.K. comps up 11% (vs 7% prior quarter), Middle East comps +9%, and Asia Pacific +5%, driven by product innovation, partnerships and holiday demand.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Papa John's reiterated 2026 guidance calling for global system‑wide sales to be flat to down low‑single‑digits, North America comps down 2%–4% (April slightly worse y/y but in line on a 3‑year stack), international comps +2%–4%, and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $200M–$210M; they plan ~$18M of supplemental marketing and franchisee subsidies, expect $13M of G&A savings (outside marketing), have line‑of‑sight to at least $30M of total cost savings by end‑2027, are on track for ≥$25M of supply‑chain savings this year (captured ~$7M in Q1), see ≥$60M NA supply‑chain opportunity (≈160 bps 4‑wall EBITDA improvement by 2028) and at least 200 bps of 4‑wall EBITDA improvement over the medium term. Additional metrics: available liquidity ~$498M, covenant leverage 3.3x, net cash from operations $7M, free cash flow outflow $6M, Q1 global system sales $1.2B (‑3% cc), consolidated revenue $479M (‑8%), consolidated adj. EBITDA ≈$48M (‑$2M), NA commissary adj. EBITDA margin 5% (‑230 bps), domestic company‑owned 4‑wall EBITDA $16.6M with 4‑wall margin 11.9% (+140 bps); non‑op guidance includes net interest $35M–$40M, adjusted D&A $70M–$75M, capex $70M–$80M, SBC ≈$5M/quarter, GAAP tax rate 30%–34%, diluted shares ≈33M; development/refranchising targets: 40–50 gross new NA restaurants (8 opened Q1), ~200 NA closures, 180–220 international openings with 5%–6% international closures, and a planned Q3 refranchise of 29 SE restaurants that should reduce 2026 revenue by ~$9M and increase adjusted EBITDA by ~$1M.Papa John's International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.97B | 2.05B | 2.06B | 2.14B | 2.10B | 2.07B |
| Gross Profit | 455.69M | 593.32M | 580.96M | 419.31M | 388.43M | 429.32M |
| EBITDA | 238.84M | 181.39M | 226.11M | 211.23M | 161.06M | 218.97M |
| Net Income | 27.57M | 30.53M | 83.49M | 82.10M | 67.77M | 120.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 805.03M | 926.93M | 888.95M | 875.00M | 864.23M | 885.70M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.49M | 36.95M | 37.95M | 40.59M | 47.37M | 70.61M |
| Total Debt | 935.52M | 1.09B | 971.13M | 965.72M | 807.26M | 685.50M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.25B | 1.36B | 1.30B | 1.32B | 1.13B | 1.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | -453.05M | -444.75M | -429.53M | -459.09M | -286.39M | -187.67M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 34.24M | 61.30M | 34.15M | 116.44M | 39.42M | 116.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 94.98M | 126.00M | 106.63M | 193.06M | 117.81M | 184.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.04M | -21.49M | -17.35M | -75.12M | -62.79M | -63.51M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -79.65M | -106.26M | -91.67M | -124.08M | -76.24M | -180.53M |
Papa John's International Technical Analysis
Negative
24.11
Price Trends
28.77
Negative
31.44
Negative
33.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.61
Negative
29.17
Positive
15.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PZZA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.54, below the 50-day MA of 28.77, and below the 200-day MA of 33.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 29.17 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for PZZA.
Papa John's International Risk Analysis
Papa John's International disclosed 74 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Papa John's International reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Papa John's International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $11.28B | 19.27 | -15.15% | 2.19% | 5.16% | 2.13% | |
68 Neutral | $12.44B | 30.28 | 27.56% | 1.55% | 9.89% | -4.85% | |
68 Neutral | $41.13B | 18.82 | -30.35% | 1.94% | 10.28% | 56.85% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.98B | 25.82 | -15.46% | 1.13% | 7.61% | -29.71% | |
52 Neutral | $1.53B | 12.17 | 109.00% | 6.10% | -0.98% | -31.26% | |
47 Neutral | $746.66M | 28.00 | -6.17% | 8.11% | -5.65% | -64.96% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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Papa John's International
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Papa John's International Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
Papa John’s Refranchises Orlando Stores, Expands Asset-Light Model
Positive
Aug 25, 2026
On August 25, 2026, Papa John’s announced it had refranchised 28 formerly corporate-owned restaurants in the Orlando area to franchise entities PZZA Group, LLC and Magic City Pizzerias, LLC, both led by veteran operator Wade Oney. The move a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Papa Johns names interim CFO amid leadership transition
Neutral
Jun 30, 2026
On June 30, 2026, Papa Johns announced a chief financial officer transition, with Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance and Principal Accounting Officer Chris Collins appointed interim CFO as of that date, succeeding Ravi Thanawala, who resig...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.