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Provident Financial Holdings
(NASDAQ:PROV)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(9.05% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is driven primarily by stable but mixed financial performance—strong revenue acceleration and positive free cash flow, offset by notable margin compression and a higher leverage profile versus earlier years. Technicals are supportive due to an established uptrend, but RSI is very elevated, raising pullback risk. Valuation is reasonable with a ~3% yield, and the latest earnings call adds support through improving NIM/loan yield outlook and strong credit quality, balanced by funding-cost headwinds and modest loan growth.
Positive Factors
Improving net interest margin
Higher loan production yields and scheduled repricing provide a tangible path to sustain or improve net interest income. This gives the bank an earnings-supporting asset-yield catalyst over the next several quarters, although funding costs remain important.
Negative Factors
Sustained margin compression
The sharp decline in net and operating margins shows that revenue growth has not translated proportionally into earnings. Unless loan-yield gains outweigh expense, credit, and funding pressures, the lower profitability base could limit earnings growth over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving net interest margin
Higher loan production yields and scheduled repricing provide a tangible path to sustain or improve net interest income. This gives the bank an earnings-supporting asset-yield catalyst over the next several quarters, although funding costs remain important.
Read all positive factors
Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$116.58M
Dividend Yield3%
Average Volume (3M)14.57K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.1
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth-0.79%
EPS Growth11.59%
CountryUS
Employees140
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.03
Shares Outstanding6,233,958
10 Day Avg. Volume21,031
30 Day Avg. Volume14,575
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.40
Price to Book (P/B)0.87
Price to Sales (P/S)1.84
P/FCF Ratio12.83
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside-1.85% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$39.50M
Provident Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. that provides community banking and financial services in Southern California, the United States. The company offers deposit products, such ...
How the Company Makes Money
Provident Financial Holdings primarily makes money through its banking subsidiary by (1) generating net interest income and (2) earning noninterest income (fees). Net interest income is the spread between interest earned on interest-earning assets...
Provident Financial Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operating and financial picture: net interest margin expanded, loan yields and originations rose, asset quality strengthened (nonperforming assets declined and no early delinquencies), and the franchise remains well-capitalized with active capital returns. Offsetting risks include modest absolute loan growth, competitive deposit costs and upcoming wholesale funding repricing that may pressure funding costs, and some volatility from prepayment-related amortization. On balance the positives (margin expansion, improving yields, strong credit metrics, and capital actions) outweigh the headwinds.Positive Updates
Net Interest Margin Expansion
NIM increased 8 basis points sequentially to 3.21% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, driven by a 7 basis-point increase in the yield on interest-earning assets and a 4 basis-point decrease in the cost of total interest-bearing liabilities; net deferred loan cost amortization contributed approximately +3 basis points in the quarter (versus -7 bps in prior quarter).
Negative Updates
Modest Absolute Loan Growth
Despite increased originations and lower prepayments, overall loan growth was modest at approximately $3 million for the quarter, indicating limited balance sheet expansion in absolute terms.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Interest Margin Expansion
NIM increased 8 basis points sequentially to 3.21% for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, driven by a 7 basis-point increase in the yield on interest-earning assets and a 4 basis-point decrease in the cost of total interest-bearing liabilities; net deferred loan cost amortization contributed approximately +3 basis points in the quarter (versus -7 bps in prior quarter).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to disciplined balance‑sheet growth with loan originations in the September 2026 quarter expected at the upper end of the recent $29M–$46M range and continued moderation in prepayments after $46.4M of June quarter originations (+5% QoQ) and $43.5M of payoffs (‑16% QoQ); about $133M of loans will reprice in September, expected to rise ~79 bps to a 7.10% weighted average (from 6.31%), new loans in June carried a 6.03% avg rate versus the portfolio 5.31%, and management expects any NIM expansion (NIM was 3.21%, +8 bps QoQ) to be driven by higher loan yields even as deposit costs (avg 1.36%, +3 bps) and $81.7M of wholesale funding maturing at a 4.05% weighted rate will likely reprice at comparable or somewhat higher costs; they will maintain the cash dividend and share repurchases (≈90,000 shares for ~$1.5M) — total capital returns were ~110% of the June quarter’s net income — while capital ratios remain well above “well‑capitalized,” operating expenses were $7.7M, FTEs were 158, and credit metrics stayed strong (NPAs $505k or 4 bps of assets, ACL/gross loans 57 bps, $95k recovery, CRE exposure $33.3M or 3.2% of loans HFI with only 4 CRE loans totaling $818k maturing in FY27).Provident Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 59.62M | 60.16M | 58.67M | 50.07M | 39.45M |
| Gross Profit | 40.61M | 39.67M | 38.93M | 40.69M | 38.77M |
| EBITDA | 9.64M | 12.36M | 13.54M | 15.60M | 17.71M |
| Net Income | 6.66M | 6.25M | 7.35M | 8.59M | 9.09M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.21B | 1.25B | 1.27B | 1.33B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 49.21M | 53.16M | 53.23M | 68.00M | 26.09M |
| Total Debt | 157.05M | 213.07M | 238.50M | 235.01M | 85.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.08B | 1.12B | 1.14B | 1.20B | 1.06B |
| Stockholders Equity | 126.22M | 128.54M | 129.94M | 129.69M | 128.65M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 8.54M | 8.15M | 4.10M | 15.58M | 11.63M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 8.97M | 8.69M | 5.68M | 16.32M | 11.79M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 31.50M | 26.46M | 45.06M | -109.90M | -51.75M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -44.35M | -33.43M | -65.22M | 136.01M | -6.90M |
Provident Financial Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
18.34
Price Trends
17.64
Positive
17.25
Positive
16.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.27
Negative
77.99
Negative
66.73
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PROV, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.18, above the 50-day MA of 17.64, and above the 200-day MA of 16.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PROV.
Provident Financial Holdings Risk Analysis
Provident Financial Holdings disclosed 27 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Provident Financial Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Provident Financial Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $92.47M | 11.02 | 9.10% | 4.07% | 4.58% | 26.05% | |
75 Outperform | $127.82M | 10.14 | 9.59% | 1.97% | 7.51% | 20.96% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $116.58M | 18.11 | 5.23% | 3.00% | -0.79% | 11.59% | |
56 Neutral | $99.14M | -25.75 | -1.08% | 2.45% | -7.07% | -307.72% | |
56 Neutral | $117.61M | 9.16 | 14.72% | 6.03% | 10.15% | 28.62% | |
55 Neutral | $106.15M | -27.46 | -2.50% | 1.52% | -11.21% | -176.24% |
* Financial Sector Average
PROV
Provident Financial Holdings
18.65
3.71
24.87%
AUBN
Auburn National Bancorporation
26.55
0.49
1.86%
MGYR
Magyar Bancorp
19.27
2.29
13.47%
PBHC
Pathfinder Bancorp
16.30
1.65
11.26%
RVSB
Riverview Bancorp
5.25
0.33
6.82%
UNB
Union Bankshares
23.90
-0.62
-2.53%
Provident Financial Holdings Corporate Events
Financial Disclosures
Provident Financial Holdings Reports Strong Quarterly Earnings Growth
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings reported that for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, net income rose 61% sequentially and 34% year over year to $2.18 million, with diluted EPS of $0.35, driven by a recovery of credit losses, higher non-interest income ...
Dividends
Provident Financial Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders
Positive
Jul 24, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc., the parent of Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B., operates as a California-based banking company focused on deposit and lending services, primarily serving customers in its regional market. Its common stock trades o...
Executive/Board Changes
Provident Financial Names CEO to Board, New Lending Chief
Neutral
Jul 24, 2026
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc., the parent of Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B., announced that President and Chief Executive Officer Donavon P. Ternes will join the Boards of Directors of both the corporation and the bank beginning July 23, 2026...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.