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Old National Bancorp Capital
(NASDAQ:ONB)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$28.00
â–²(9.12% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
ONB scores well primarily on solid financial performance (improving profitability and strong free cash flow) and a very constructive earnings-call outlook (maintained 15%+ EPS growth guidance, improving credit, and continued buybacks). Valuation is also supportive (P/E ~11 with a ~2.27% yield). The main offset is mixed technicals, with neutral oscillators but a negative MACD and only modest trend strength.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Profitability Growth
Strong revenue growth alongside higher net income and margin indicates improving operating performance, not merely balance-sheet expansion. If sustained, this combination can strengthen internal capital generation, support investment in the franchise, and provide a more durable earnings base over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Funding Costs Pressure Net Interest Margin
A competitive deposit market is raising the cost of funding, which directly pressures the spread between earning assets and deposits. Persistent pricing pressure could limit net interest income growth and make profitability more dependent on loan expansion, asset repricing, or favorable changes in funding conditions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue and Profitability Growth
Strong revenue growth alongside higher net income and margin indicates improving operating performance, not merely balance-sheet expansion. If sustained, this combination can strengthen internal capital generation, support investment in the franchise, and provide a more durable earnings base over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Old National Bancorp Capital (ONB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.69B
Dividend Yield2.27%
Average Volume (3M)5.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.2
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth17.61%
EPS Growth43.11%
CountryUS
Employees4,914
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.28
Shares Outstanding382,570,000
10 Day Avg. Volume5,415,257
30 Day Avg. Volume5,171,600
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.90
Price to Book (P/B)1.02
Price to Sales (P/S)2.33
P/FCF Ratio13.58
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.65
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.97
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.94
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.25
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$29.55Price Target Upside15.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)2.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.88B
Old National Bancorp Capital Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Old National Bancorp functions as the parent company for Old National Bank, furnishing a wide array of financial services to both individual and commercial clients throughout the United States. Its product portfolio encompasses various deposit acc...
How the Company Makes Money
ONB primarily makes money through (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income. Net interest income is earned from the spread between interest received on earning assets (such as commercial loans, consumer loans, and securities) and interest...
Old National Bancorp Capital Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 26, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. Management reported record earnings and efficiency, robust deposit growth, balanced loan growth, improving credit metrics, strong capital, meaningful share repurchases, and maintained guidance for more than 15% EPS growth. The main challenges were higher deposit funding costs, mortgage-fee softness, a modestly lower margin, expected moderation in fourth-quarter loan growth, and higher expenses from recent hiring, but management characterized these issues as manageable within its existing outlook.Positive Updates
Record Third-Quarter Earnings
Old National reported a record quarter with GAAP third-quarter EPS of $0.66, record net income, record adjusted diluted EPS, and a record adjusted efficiency ratio. Adjusted EPS was also $0.66 after less than $1 million of merger-related expenses were offset by a similarly sized valuation gain on the settlement of the legacy Bremer pension plan.
Negative Updates
Modest Margin Compression from Higher Funding Costs
Total net interest margin declined modestly during the quarter as rate, volume, and day-count benefits were offset by increased funding costs. Deposit costs increased 8 basis points linked quarter, with approximately 4 basis points attributed to new deposit growth and additional pressure from seasonal public-funds balances.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Third-Quarter Earnings
Old National reported a record quarter with GAAP third-quarter EPS of $0.66, record net income, record adjusted diluted EPS, and a record adjusted efficiency ratio. Adjusted EPS was also $0.66 after less than $1 million of merger-related expenses were offset by a similarly sized valuation gain on the settlement of the legacy Bremer pension plan.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For full-year 2026, Old National’s overall expectations remain unchanged, with positive operating leverage, growth in tangible book value, and EPS growth exceeding 15%; loan growth is expected at 6% to 8%, with mid single digit growth for the fourth quarter, bringing the company to the lower end of the annual range. Full-year NII is expected to come in on the lower end of the stated range, while 4Q NII dollars are expected to show continued growth from 3Q levels and the margin is expected to show a modest improvement, expanding a couple of basis points from the 3Q average level. Fee income guidance remains unchanged, with mortgage fees softness likely to continue in 4Q; expenses are expected near the lower end of the $1.435 billion to $1.455 billion annual range, although 4Q will run higher than 3Q’s $355 million. The outlook for credit and tax rates is unchanged, and the company expects to fully utilize the remaining $177 million buyback authorization through the end of February 27; in aggregate, it continues to expect 15%-plus EPS growth, positive operating leverage, peer leading profitability, normalized credit, sustained growth in tangible book value per share, and record EPS for 2026.Old National Bancorp Capital Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
76
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.03B | 3.71B | 2.96B | 2.54B | 1.85B | 852.87M |
| Gross Profit | 2.69B | 2.36B | 1.77B | 1.78B | 1.58B | 840.24M |
| EBITDA | 1.31B | 997.74M | 746.07M | 816.56M | 607.03M | 377.47M |
| Net Income | 886.28M | 669.26M | 539.19M | 581.99M | 428.29M | 277.54M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 74.19B | 72.15B | 53.55B | 49.09B | 46.76B | 24.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.33B | 2.28B | 8.69B | 7.89B | 7.50B | 8.20B |
| Total Debt | 8.42B | 7.45B | 5.41B | 5.33B | 5.59B | 2.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 65.61B | 63.66B | 47.21B | 43.53B | 41.63B | 21.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.58B | 8.49B | 6.34B | 5.56B | 5.13B | 3.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 979.48M | 637.41M | 592.01M | 477.97M | 776.52M | 281.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 986.76M | 681.47M | 622.28M | 516.34M | 814.42M | 330.38M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.41B | -1.83B | -1.37B | -1.82B | -1.69B | -1.43B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.44B | 1.75B | 802.59M | 1.75B | 777.48M | 1.33B |
Old National Bancorp Capital Technical Analysis
Positive
25.66
Price Trends
25.33
Negative
25.54
Negative
24.35
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Negative
53.67
Neutral
56.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ONB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 25.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.86, above the 50-day MA of 25.33, and above the 200-day MA of 24.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ONB.
Old National Bancorp Capital Risk Analysis
Old National Bancorp Capital disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Old National Bancorp Capital reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Old National Bancorp Capital Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $10.29B | 11.22 | 12.17% | 1.32% | 28.55% | 37.78% | |
77 Outperform | $3.43B | 11.37 | 10.07% | 3.09% | 11.65% | 13.28% | |
75 Outperform | $10.17B | 11.40 | 12.54% | 1.43% | 5.56% | 19.67% | |
74 Outperform | $9.69B | 10.17 | 11.31% | 2.27% | 17.61% | 43.11% | |
70 Outperform | $1.24B | 11.31 | 12.41% | 1.15% | 22.40% | 40.35% | |
69 Neutral | $5.71B | 10.31 | 9.99% | 3.18% | 22.74% | 209.21% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
25.32
5.03
24.77%
ASB
Associated Banc-Corp
30.21
5.71
23.30%
FFBC
First Financial Bancorp
32.64
9.44
40.70%
OSBC
Old Second Bancorp
24.43
6.10
33.28%
UMBF
UMB Financial
135.51
24.68
22.27%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
150.77
21.32
16.47%
Old National Bancorp Capital Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Old National Bancorp Declares Quarterly Common Dividend
Positive
Aug 12, 2026
On August 12, 2026, Old National Bancorp announced that its board had declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.145 per share on its common stock, payable on September 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 5, 2026. This decision underscor...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Old National Bancorp Highlights Q2 2026 Financial Strength
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Old National Bancorp released an investor presentation outlining its second-quarter 2026 investment thesis and financial profile for use in meetings with investors and analysts. The materials highlight adjusted profitability met...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.