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UMB Financial
(NASDAQ:UMBF)
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Rating:81Outperform
Price Target:
$150.00
â–²(4.65% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
UMBF scores well primarily on strong financial performance (profitable operations with strong recent cash generation and improving capital/leverage profile) and bullish technicals (price above all key moving averages with positive MACD). Earnings-call commentary reinforces momentum via strong loan growth, healthy credit, and dividend/capital strength, while the main constraints are margin compression versus prior peaks, reliance on purchase accounting accretion for reported NIM, and near-term overbought technical readings. Valuation is supportive with a mid-teens/low-teens P/E, though the dividend yield is modest.
Positive Factors
Strong loan growth and profitability
Robust loan production and commercial lending growth are expanding UMB’s earning-asset base and supporting revenue generation. Combined with strong quarterly profitability, this momentum indicates continued client demand and provides a durable platform for growth over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Core margin relies on purchase accounting
Reported net interest margin is materially supported by purchase accounting accretion, while underlying core NIM remains more modest. As accretion fades or early-payoff benefits fluctuate, margin expansion may prove less durable and place greater pressure on future earnings growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong loan growth and profitability
Robust loan production and commercial lending growth are expanding UMB’s earning-asset base and supporting revenue generation. Combined with strong quarterly profitability, this momentum indicates continued client demand and provides a durable platform for growth over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
UMB Financial (UMBF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.88B
Dividend Yield1.39%
Average Volume (3M)660.79K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.7
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth28.55%
EPS Growth37.78%
CountryUS
Employees5,222
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.08
Shares Outstanding75,950,030
10 Day Avg. Volume675,184
30 Day Avg. Volume660,795
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio7.54
Price to Book (P/B)1.14
Price to Sales (P/S)1.97
P/FCF Ratio8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.43
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.94
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$164.75Price Target Upside14.94% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)13.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.99B
UMB Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
UMB Financial Corporation serves as the holding company for UMB Bank, delivering a comprehensive array of banking and financial solutions. Its Commercial Banking division provides businesses with essential services, including commercial loans, cre...
How the Company Makes Money
UMB Financial primarily makes money through a mix of net interest income and fee-based (noninterest) income. Net interest income is earned from the spread between interest it receives on earning assets (such as commercial loans, commercial real es...
UMB Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong profitability, robust loan production, healthy credit metrics, meaningful fee income growth (notably in fund services and corporate trust), improving capital metrics, and an increased dividend — all signaling strong operating momentum. Headwinds included flat average deposits with seasonal volatility, expense increases (notably deferred compensation and timing costs), and reliance on purchase accounting accretion to boost reported NIM. On balance, the positives around earnings, growth, capital, and fee diversification outweigh the manageable operational and seasonal challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Profitability and EPS
Net income of $271.8 million and diluted EPS of $3.56 for Q2 2026; operating return on tangible common equity of 20.3% and operating efficiency ratio of 48.1%.
Negative Updates
Flat Average Deposit Balances and Seasonal Pressure
Average deposit balances were flat for the quarter as increases in commercial and asset servicing deposits were offset by seasonal public fund declines and lower investor solutions balances; Q3 expected to be a seasonal deposit low point.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Profitability and EPS
Net income of $271.8 million and diluted EPS of $3.56 for Q2 2026; operating return on tangible common equity of 20.3% and operating efficiency ratio of 48.1%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to a relatively flat third‑quarter core NIM versus the Q2 adjusted margin of 3.09% (Q2 reported NIM 3.32% including ~23 bps from $35.9M of purchase accounting accretion), and expects third‑quarter operating noninterest expense to be roughly in line with consensus at about $390 million. For 2026 they reaffirmed an effective tax rate of 20%–22%, projected contractual accretion of ~$46 million for the remainder of 2026 and ~$77 million for 2027, and continue to expect positive operating leverage for the full year after delivering 12.2% Y/Y in H1; capital and liquidity cushions cited include CET1 of 11.45% (up 29 bps), nearly $1.5 billion of excess cash, $24 billion of off‑balance‑sheet client deposits that can be brought on balance sheet, and $2.3 billion of securities maturing or rolling off within 12 months. Management also noted a 47% sensitivity on NII for a 100‑bp rate move, reiterated organic loan growth as the top capital priority, and reminded investors that Q3 is a seasonal deposit low but the deposit pipeline remains strong.UMB Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
81
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.56B | 4.44B | 2.64B | 2.24B | 1.58B | 1.24B |
| Gross Profit | 2.67B | 2.42B | 1.41B | 1.28B | 1.32B | 1.18B |
| EBITDA | 1.15B | 1.04B | 594.04M | 480.32M | 586.03M | 484.81M |
| Net Income | 942.68M | 702.40M | 441.24M | 350.02M | 431.68M | 353.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 72.26B | 73.09B | 50.41B | 44.01B | 38.51B | 42.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 779.88M | 952.55M | 16.33B | 12.68B | 8.69B | 21.23B |
| Total Debt | 3.56B | 3.80B | 3.00B | 3.50B | 2.60B | 3.51B |
| Total Liabilities | 64.22B | 65.40B | 46.94B | 40.91B | 35.85B | 39.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.03B | 7.69B | 3.47B | 3.10B | 2.67B | 3.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.06B | 978.11M | 201.08M | 445.69M | 717.84M | 500.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.09B | 1.03B | 225.29M | 472.60M | 769.55M | 534.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.91B | -5.62B | -3.26B | -1.27B | -3.85B | -4.24B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 715.58M | 3.92B | 5.96B | 4.77B | -4.58B | 9.42B |
UMB Financial Technical Analysis
Negative
143.34
Price Trends
139.36
Negative
138.76
Negative
129.65
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.58
Negative
37.91
Neutral
64.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For UMBF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 143.34 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 132.10, above the 50-day MA of 139.36, and above the 200-day MA of 129.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.58 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for UMBF.
UMB Financial Risk Analysis
UMB Financial disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. UMB Financial reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
UMB Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $9.88B | 10.67 | 12.17% | 1.39% | 28.55% | 37.78% | |
78 Outperform | $9.63B | 11.17 | 12.33% | 1.52% | 5.62% | 17.55% | |
77 Outperform | $9.42B | 10.75 | 10.46% | 2.35% | 27.70% | 32.69% | |
75 Outperform | $7.79B | 13.24 | 14.39% | 2.02% | 7.00% | 3.28% | |
71 Outperform | $7.58B | 11.55 | 10.84% | 2.05% | 1.68% | 27.08% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $9.42B | 14.29 | 15.04% | 2.68% | 1.94% | 13.72% |
* Financial Sector Average
UMBF
UMB Financial
128.86
14.27
12.45%
BOKF
Bok Financial
123.06
14.86
13.73%
CBSH
Commerce Bancshares
54.42
1.55
2.93%
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers
151.57
28.31
22.96%
ONB
Old National Bancorp Capital
24.51
3.71
17.83%
WTFC
Wintrust Financial
141.02
14.82
11.74%
UMB Financial Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
UMB Financial to Redeem 2.75% Subordinated Notes Early
Neutral
Sep 1, 2026
On September 1, 2026, UMB Financial Corporation said it will redeem on September 15, 2026 all of its outstanding 2.75% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes due 2031. The redemption price will be set at 100% of the principal amount plus any ac...
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
UMB Financial posts strong Q2 results, boosts dividends
Positive
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, UMB Financial reported strong second-quarter 2026 results, with GAAP net income available to common shareholders rising 26.2% year over year to $271.8 million, or $3.56 per diluted share, on revenue of $778.0 million. Performance...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.