Omeros (OMER) AI Stock Analysis

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Omeros

(NASDAQ:OMER)

40Underperform

Omeros faces significant financial instability with no revenue and high debt, which heavily impacts its score. Technical indicators suggest some potential for short-term recovery, but poor valuation and ongoing losses are concerning. The company's strategic focus on drug development and partnerships offers some optimism, but financial recovery is crucial for improvement.

Positive Factors

Clinical Results

Narsoplimab reduced the risk of mortality in high-risk TA-TMA patients by over one-half to one-third compared to patients not treated with narsoplimab.

Product Effectiveness

Narsoplimab is the only product that has shown effectiveness in treating TA-TMA.

Negative Factors

FDA Approval Concerns

Skepticism remains about FDA approval of narsoplimab due to limited clinical data and a lengthy regulatory process.

Financial Challenges

The company is facing financial challenges with cash not providing a runway beyond the second quarter of 2024.

Uncertain Future

The analyst maintains a Hold rating due to the company's uncertain future and urgent funding needs.

Omeros (OMER) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$194.53M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.13M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)1.20

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS Growth-43.76%

CountryUS

Employees202

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength41

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.58

Shares Outstanding58,592,514

10 Day Avg. Volume1,951,695

30 Day Avg. Volume1,130,415

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.66

Price to Book (P/B)-0.87

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-1.31

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.53

Enterprise Value/Revenue83.95

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-1.44K

Enterprise Value/Ebitda-0.46

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$45.00

Price Target Upside1255.42% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering2

Omeros Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOmeros Corporation (OMER) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing small-molecule and protein therapeutics for various medical conditions. The company operates primarily in the field of inflammation, coagulopathies, and central nervous system disorders. Omeros' lead product, Omidria, is used in cataract and lens replacement surgery to prevent intraoperative miosis and reduce postoperative ocular pain. Additionally, the company is engaged in multiple clinical-stage development programs targeting conditions such as complement-mediated diseases and addiction.

How the Company Makes MoneyOmeros Corporation makes money primarily through the sales of its commercial product, Omidria. Revenue is generated by selling Omidria to hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, and other medical facilities where cataract and lens replacement surgeries are performed. The company has also received funding and financial support through partnerships, government grants, and collaborations to support its research and development activities. Additionally, Omeros may receive milestone payments and royalties from licensing agreements related to its pipeline products in development, though the majority of its current revenue stems from Omidria sales.

Omeros Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Omeros is facing significant financial challenges, with consistent net losses and no revenue generation. The negative stockholders' equity and high debt load exacerbate its instability, and the company relies heavily on debt financing, which is unsustainable without revenue.

Income Statement

Very Negative

Omeros' income statement reveals significant challenges, with no revenue generated in recent years, leading to negative gross and net profit margins. The company has struggled with consistent net losses, indicating severe profitability issues. There is no visible revenue growth, and operating margins are deeply negative, highlighting ongoing operational difficulties.

Balance Sheet

Negative

The balance sheet shows a negative stockholders' equity, which is a concerning indicator of financial instability. The company has a high debt load relative to its equity, resulting in a negative debt-to-equity ratio. This leverage situation poses substantial risks. The equity ratio is also negative, further underscoring the weak financial position.

Cash Flow

Negative

Cash flow analysis indicates persistent negative free cash flow, although there was a notable increase in operating cash flow in 2023. However, the operating cash flow remains negative overall. The company has been financing its operations through debt, which is unsustainable in the long term without generating revenue.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
412.00K	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	73.81M
	Gross Profit
-208.00K	0.00	-69.78M	-952.00K	-1.39M	72.91M
	EBIT
-165.19M	-169.26M	-164.53M	-163.39M	-173.62M	-110.60M
	EBITDA
-156.56M	-157.00M	-163.61M	-162.44M	-172.23M	-168.02M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-153.09M	-156.81M	-117.81M	28.78M	194.24M	-138.06M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
52.41M	90.13M	171.85M	194.92M	157.27M	134.95M
	Total Assets
235.16M	277.08M	378.27M	590.97M	419.27M	181.04M
	Total Debt
115.32M	207.02M	361.58M	342.02M	347.84M	32.55M
	Net Debt
111.06M	203.62M	354.48M	331.01M	247.03M	22.05M
	Total Liabilities
448.71M	459.69M	403.25M	505.29M	395.49M	301.79M
	Stockholders Equity
-213.55M	-182.61M	-24.98M	85.68M	23.78M	-872.67M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-143.01M	-148.97M	74.30M	-86.60M	-110.00M	-100.37M
	Operating Cash Flow
-142.86M	-148.80M	74.73M	-86.48M	-109.72M	-100.09M
	Investing Cash Flow
182.68M	82.22M	27.45M	-127.56M	193.71M	-67.03M
	Financing Cash Flow
-37.39M	62.88M	-106.08M	124.25M	6.32M	174.53M

Omeros Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price3.32

Price Trends

50DMA

7.03

Negative

100DMA

8.07

Negative

200DMA

6.77

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.01

Positive

RSI

24.72

Positive

STOCH

7.13

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For OMER, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.97, below the 50-day MA of 7.03, and below the 200-day MA of 6.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.72 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for OMER.

Omeros Risk Analysis

Omeros disclosed 33 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Omeros reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Omeros Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (52)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ZVRA	54 Neutral	$473.53M	―	-204.78%	―	44.92%	-40.06%
DNA	54 Neutral	$464.16M	―	-57.76%	―	13.76%	48.34%
Sector *	52 Neutral	$5.19B	3.04	-44.64%	2.82%	16.45%	-0.53%
UPB	48 Neutral	$464.78M	―		―	―	―
RLAY	46 Neutral	$481.76M	―	-45.46%	―	-78.26%	15.41%
OMER	40 Underperform	$194.53M	―	87.26%	―	―	-43.76%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

OMER

Omeros

3.32

0.02

0.61%

ZVRA

Zevra Therapeutics

8.91

4.22

89.98%

RLAY

Relay Therapeutics

2.93

-3.85

-56.78%

DNA

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings

8.09

-22.55

-73.60%

UPB

Upstream Bio, Inc.

9.05

-14.33

-61.29%

Omeros Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 15, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -15.95%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call reflects a cautious optimism. While there are significant positive developments, particularly with debt restructuring and progress toward narsoplimab approval, the increase in net loss, decline in OMIDRIA sales, and pausing of certain clinical programs present notable challenges.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Debt Restructuring and Financial Flexibility

Omeros announced an exchange agreement reducing their outstanding debt by $10 million and lowering near-term repayment obligations by over $100 million, extending debt maturity to 2029. This improves financial flexibility and strengthens the balance sheet.

Narsoplimab Approval Progress

FDA accepted the resubmitted BLA for narsoplimab for TA-TMA, assigning a target action date of September 25th. Narsoplimab is positioned as the first approved treatment for TA-TMA and represents a nearly $1 billion annual market opportunity.

Strong Market Potential for Zalutenibart

The ongoing clinical trial for zaltenibart in PNH indicates potential for significant market share in a growing PNH treatment market, projected to be over $10 billion by 2032.

OMIDRIA Royalties

OMIDRIA royalties for the first quarter totaled $6.7 million based on net sales of $22.3 million, highlighting ongoing revenue from this product.

Negative Updates

Increased Net Loss

Net loss for the first quarter of 2025 was $33.5 million, an increase from the previous quarter's net loss of $31.4 million.

OMIDRIA Sales Decline

OMIDRIA net sales decreased by $11.3 million from the fourth quarter of last year, with a corresponding $3.4 million decline in royalties.

Paused Clinical Programs

Due to capital constraints, the Phase III zaltenibart program in PNH has been temporarily paused, potentially impacting future timelines.

Company Guidance

During the earnings call for Omeros Corporation, the company provided guidance on its financial and strategic positioning for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. The net loss for the quarter was reported at $33.5 million, or $0.58 per share, compared to a $31.4 million loss, or $0.54 per share, in the previous quarter. As of March 31, 2025, Omeros held $52.5 million in cash and investments. The company announced a debt restructuring agreement, exchanging $71 million in 2026 convertible notes for new 9.5% convertible senior notes due in 2029, and converting $10 million of the 2026 notes into equity. This reduced their total debt by $10 million and lowered near-term repayment obligations from $118 million to $17 million. Omeros highlighted ongoing efforts to secure additional capital to support operations, particularly the anticipated approval and launch of narsoplimab for the treatment of TA-TMA, with a target FDA action date of September 25, 2025. The company is also progressing on its marketing authorization application for narsoplimab with European regulators and continuing its development programs for zaltenibart, a treatment for PNH, and the PDE7 inhibitor program for cocaine use disorder.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.