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NBT Bancorp
(NASDAQ:NBTB)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$59.00
â–²(14.54% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/28/26
The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance (improving profitability and moderate leverage) and a reasonable valuation with a meaningful dividend yield. Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, though near-term momentum looks somewhat stretched. The latest earnings call adds upside via record results, margin expansion, and constructive growth guidance, tempered by expense and funding-cost pressures.
Positive Factors
Diversified revenue growth
Growth across retirement services, wealth management and insurance broadens NBT’s revenue base beyond lending spreads. This diversification can improve earnings resilience across rate cycles, while rising fee contribution supports investment in the franchise and reduces reliance on any single banking activity.
Negative Factors
Persistent expense pressure
Rising compensation, medical costs, activity-based expenses and planned branch investment could absorb part of the benefit from revenue growth. If these costs persist faster than fee income or net interest revenue, operating leverage and the durability of profitability may remain constrained.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified revenue growth
Growth across retirement services, wealth management and insurance broadens NBT’s revenue base beyond lending spreads. This diversification can improve earnings resilience across rate cycles, while rising fee contribution supports investment in the franchise and reduces reliance on any single banking activity.
Read all positive factors
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.75B
Dividend Yield2.85%
Average Volume (3M)346.81K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.76
Revenue Growth14.46%
EPS Growth46.91%
CountryUS
Employees2,303
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.10
Shares Outstanding51,960,060
10 Day Avg. Volume269,733
30 Day Avg. Volume346,805
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.03
Price to Book (P/B)1.03
Price to Sales (P/S)2.25
P/FCF Ratio8.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.11
Enterprise Value/Ebitda9.49
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$57.00Price Target Upside10.66% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)4.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$759.57M
NBT Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services in the United States. It operates through Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments. The ...
How the Company Makes Money
NBT Bancorp primarily makes money through its banking operations by earning (1) net interest income and (2) noninterest income, while managing operating expenses and credit losses.
1) Net interest income (core revenue driver): The company gathers...
NBT Bancorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 27, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Management reported record quarterly earnings, record net interest income, margin expansion, loan growth, improving criticized and classified loan levels, strong capital ratios, and significant semiconductor-related growth opportunities. The principal challenges were consumer portfolio runoff, elevated payoffs, muted mortgage activity, higher expenses and medical costs, potential deposit pricing pressure, seasonal fee-income softness, and a slight uptick in nonperforming loans. These issues were presented as manageable within the company's stated operating outlook.Positive Updates
Record Earnings and Strong Profitability
NBT reported third-quarter net income of $58 million, or $1.11 per diluted common share. Operating return on assets was 1.41% and operating return on tangible equity was 16.53%. Management said the company generated stronger earnings than both the third quarter of last year and the second quarter of this year, with record quarterly earnings.
Negative Updates
Consumer Portfolio Runoff and Elevated Payoffs
Consumer runoff portfolios continued to affect reported loan growth, and commercial loan payoffs remained elevated relative to last year. Management expects fourth-quarter loan growth to remain consistent rather than accelerate.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Earnings and Strong Profitability
NBT reported third-quarter net income of $58 million, or $1.11 per diluted common share. Operating return on assets was 1.41% and operating return on tangible equity was 16.53%. Management said the company generated stronger earnings than both the third quarter of last year and the second quarter of this year, with record quarterly earnings.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management expects loan growth to be consistent in the fourth quarter, following 4% growth for the first 9 months of the year excluding those consumer portfolios and 3% including them; purchase accounting accretion runs between $6 million and $6.5 million on average and is expected to normalize again next quarter, while net interest margin could see a few basis points of margin improvement continue as a trend. Fourth-quarter expenses are expected to be around $114 million to $115 million, representing a 3% or 3.5% increase over the same time last year. For 2027, management views 3% to 5% loan growth as a really good starting point, with merit changes in the 3% to 3.5% range, other operating expenses not radically different, branch expansion potentially adding 0.5%, medical costs expected to be a double-digit increase again, and retirement plan revenue growth more in the 5% to 7% range; disciplined sustainable growth is described as 3% to 5% or 4% to 6%, with outsized activities potentially moving growth to 5% to 6% or 5% to 7%.NBT Bancorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 945.29M | 867.43M | 785.99M | 662.35M | 537.00M | 494.75M |
| Gross Profit | 723.81M | 625.73M | 554.83M | 492.50M | 497.97M | 484.22M |
| EBITDA | 313.48M | 252.98M | 206.95M | 175.73M | 215.22M | 219.74M |
| Net Income | 214.15M | 169.24M | 140.64M | 118.78M | 152.00M | 154.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.21B | 16.00B | 13.79B | 13.31B | 11.74B | 12.01B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 187.16M | 185.16M | 420.42M | 1.64B | 1.72B | 2.96B |
| Total Debt | 471.19M | 327.42M | 414.98M | 637.39M | 787.95M | 311.48M |
| Total Liabilities | 14.27B | 14.10B | 12.26B | 11.88B | 10.57B | 10.76B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.94B | 1.90B | 1.53B | 1.43B | 1.17B | 1.25B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 245.61M | 218.92M | 176.82M | 148.20M | 176.21M | 151.44M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 261.66M | 235.22M | 188.57M | 157.46M | 183.22M | 159.19M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -484.18M | 169.07M | -399.16M | -44.23M | -926.22M | -547.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -24.39M | -201.23M | 289.46M | -105.39M | -328.73M | 984.81M |
NBT Bancorp Technical Analysis
Positive
51.51
Price Trends
51.26
Positive
50.74
Positive
47.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.43
Negative
64.12
Neutral
87.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NBTB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 51.13, above the 50-day MA of 51.26, and above the 200-day MA of 47.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.43 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NBTB.
NBT Bancorp Risk Analysis
NBT Bancorp disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NBT Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
NBT Bancorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $2.75B | 12.65 | 11.31% | 2.85% | 14.46% | 46.91% | |
74 Outperform | $3.28B | 14.47 | 11.34% | 3.05% | 7.22% | 17.31% | |
73 Outperform | $1.47B | 8.08 | 19.07% | 2.63% | -15.20% | 113.26% | |
71 Outperform | $3.03B | 9.68 | 11.00% | 4.13% | 3.72% | 35.18% | |
70 Outperform | $2.12B | 12.80 | 10.83% | 2.62% | 4.87% | 25.01% | |
69 Neutral | $2.24B | 11.07 | 10.53% | 5.24% | 14.54% | -6.93% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
NBTB
NBT Bancorp
52.89
14.30
37.06%
CBU
Community Bank System
62.37
8.10
14.93%
FCF
First Commonwealth
21.02
5.99
39.84%
NWBI
Northwest Bancshares
15.27
4.22
38.18%
PFS
Provident Financial Services
23.23
5.47
30.79%
TMP
Tompkins Financial Corporation
102.19
40.30
65.10%
NBT Bancorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NBT Bancorp expands board, appoints independent director
Positive
Sep 21, 2026
On September 21, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc. expanded its Board of Directors to thirteen members and appointed veteran healthcare and finance executive Kimberly A. Boynton as a director, effective October 1, 2026. Boynton, a former President and CEO of...
Business Operations and Strategy
NBT Bancorp Releases New Investor Presentation to Market
Positive
Sep 8, 2026
On September 8, 2026, NBT Bancorp Inc. announced that its executive management team had prepared an investor presentation for use in upcoming meetings with investors and analysts. The presentation slides were made available to the public on the In...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.