First Commonwealth (FCF) AI Stock Analysis

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First Commonwealth

(NYSE:FCF)

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Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:$23.50▲(11.85% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:11/07/26

FCF scores well primarily on solid underlying financial performance (profitability and improved leverage) and supportive guidance around net interest margin and capital returns, partially offset by cash-flow volatility and credit-cost/asset-quality headwinds. Technicals are mildly constructive and valuation is reasonable, together reinforcing an above-average—but not top-tier—overall score.

Positive Factors

Net Interest Margin ExpansionImproving net interest margin and lower deposit costs can strengthen recurring net interest income, the bank’s largest revenue stream. If management’s outlook is achieved, earnings capacity should benefit over the next several quarters while supporting reinvestment and capital returns.

Negative Factors

Elevated Credit CostsRecord provisioning directly reduces current earnings and signals that credit costs could remain a material swing factor while identified loans are resolved. Even if losses are concentrated, additional reserves would weaken profitability and could constrain capital available for growth or distributions.

First Commonwealth (FCF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.04B
Dividend Yield: 2.64%
Average Volume (3M): 851.73K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.4
Beta (1Y): 0.54
Revenue Growth: 3.92%
EPS Growth: 21.62%
Country: US
Employees: 1,575
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

First Commonwealth Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, a financial holding company, provides various consumer and commercial banking products and services in the United States. The company’s consumer services include internet, mobile, and telephone banking; an au...

How the Company Makes Money

FCF primarily makes money through traditional banking spread and fee-based activities conducted by its bank subsidiary. The largest revenue driver is typically net interest income: the bank earns interest and fees on loans and other interest-earning...

First Commonwealth Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 27, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:0.62%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 26, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was generally constructive, with strong net interest margin and net interest income trends, improving loan production, substantial capital returned through buybacks, a sizable future funding pipeline, and continued technology investment. These positives were partially offset by record quarterly provision expense, higher nonperforming and classified loans concentrated in identified credits, ongoing Central Pennsylvania credit work, rising-rate pressure on demand, and higher expenses. Management remained confident in the operating trajectory and maintained fourth-quarter guidance.

Positive Updates

Core Earnings and Energy Tax Credits

Core earnings per share totaled $0.45 in the third quarter. The company recognized $4.7 million of energy tax credits, equivalent to $6 million pretax, which helped offset provision expense.

Negative Updates

Elevated Provision Expense

Provision expense was $14.2 million, including $3.5 million associated with unfunded loan commitments and $10.7 million of provision for loan losses. Approximately $7.7 million of the loan-loss provision was tied principally to specific reserves for three previously identified credits. Management described this as its highest provisioning quarter ever and said it hopes provision expense returns to under $10 million, while noting that future results remain uncertain.

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, First Commonwealth maintained guidance for loan growth within its mid single digit guidance, fee income of $24 million to $25 million per quarter, and expenses of $74 million to $76 million per quarter; with no further changes in rates, it expects NIM to rise to around 4.20% in the fourth quarter and continue to rise into the mid-4.20s in 2027, with estimates give or take 5 basis points. Management is using about a 25% deposit beta and expects the loan-to-deposit ratio to remain in the low 90s, expects credit resolution over the next couple of quarters and, barring unforeseen events, to manage within typical provision going forward, while hoping provision returns to under $10 million. It expects construction loans to fund over a 12- to 18-month period on average, with more incremental benefit in about 2 quarters, and said fourth-quarter growth could remain at that pace or a little higher; the additional $25 million repurchase authorization is expected to be active next week.

First Commonwealth Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid overall: strong reported TTM revenue growth and healthy profitability, plus a more conservative leverage profile (improving debt-to-equity) and steady ROE. The key drag is cash-flow quality/consistency—free cash flow is down versus the prior period and operating cash flow metrics are unusually low/volatile—creating a durability risk despite acceptable free-cash-flow coverage of earnings.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

82Very Positive

Cash Flow

60Neutral

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	623.96M	729.44M	699.69M	626.61M	428.66M	400.60M
Gross Profit	395.10M	493.12M	448.95M	467.47M	389.82M	386.67M
EBITDA	121.42M	204.99M	184.01M	201.66M	170.74M	184.26M
Net Income	171.96M	152.30M	142.57M	157.06M	128.18M	138.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.20B	12.34B	11.58B	11.46B	9.81B	9.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.69B	1.14B	1.28B	1.17B	916.90M	1.44B
Total Debt	289.37M	409.71M	343.12M	784.59M	553.92M	320.58M
Total Liabilities	10.71B	10.79B	10.18B	10.15B	8.75B	8.44B
Stockholders Equity	1.48B	1.55B	1.41B	1.31B	1.05B	1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	130.15M	171.36M	113.92M	128.72M	140.21M	154.41M
Operating Cash Flow	158.23M	187.54M	129.46M	150.76M	151.41M	165.05M
Investing Cash Flow	88.51M	-388.14M	-121.72M	-574.27M	-588.79M	-565.30M
Financing Cash Flow	-280.05M	247.64M	-21.32M	416.26M	196.25M	439.05M

First Commonwealth Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price21.01

Price Trends

50DMA20.65Positive

100DMA20.68Positive

200DMA19.30Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.19Negative

RSI57.27Neutral

STOCH30.87Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For FCF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.75, above the 50-day MA of 20.65, and above the 200-day MA of 19.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.27 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for FCF.

First Commonwealth Risk Analysis

First Commonwealth disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. First Commonwealth reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks

1.We Are Subject To the Potential Adverse Effects of a U.S. Federal Government ShutdownQ4, 2025

2.The Proliferation of Stablecoins May Adversely Impact Our BusinessQ4, 2025

3.Increasing Fraud Risk Could Adversely Affect Our Business, Financial Condition, and ReputationQ4, 2025

First Commonwealth Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

FCF against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRCE	85Outperform	$2.12B	12.02	13.75%	1.97%	3.90%	20.76%
STBA	83Outperform	$1.81B	13.00	10.12%	2.90%	2.27%	14.04%
GABC	80Outperform	$1.88B	12.88	12.39%	2.48%	12.22%	35.76%
NWBI	74Outperform	$2.25B	11.04	10.53%	5.25%	13.28%	55.16%
FCF	73Outperform	$2.05B	12.43	11.17%	2.64%	3.92%	21.62%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
FRME	67Neutral	$2.58B	12.68	7.54%	3.55%	7.98%	-19.33%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

FCF and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
FCF	First Commonwealth Financial	21.01	5.59	36.23%
SRCE	1st Source Corporation	87.71	27.46	45.57%
FRME	First Merchants	41.07	6.24	17.91%
GABC	German American Bancorp	49.96	11.48	29.84%
NWBI	Northwest Bancshares	15.23	4.12	37.02%
STBA	S&T Bancorp	50.95	13.34	35.45%

First Commonwealth Corporate Events

Stock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures

First Commonwealth Announces Dividend and Share Repurchase Plan

Positive

Oct 28, 2026

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation, based in Indiana, Pennsylvania and traded on the NYSE as FCF, is a regional banking company that generates earnings from net interest income and fee-based noninterest income, supplemented by core non-GAAP mea...

Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance

First Commonwealth appoints Phillip Graves as accounting chief

Neutral

Sep 17, 2026

On September 14, 2026, First Commonwealth Financial Corporation appointed Phillip J. Graves Jr. as Chief Accounting Officer of the corporation and First Commonwealth Bank, designating him as the principal accounting officer as of that date. Graves jo...

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026

First Commonwealth AI Stock Analysis