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Maxlinear
(NASDAQ:MXL)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$65.00
▼(-2.05% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
The score is held down primarily by weak cash flow and still-incomplete profitability recovery, alongside poor near-term technical momentum. These are partially offset by a supportive balance sheet and a strong, upbeat earnings call with raised optical outlook, solid growth, and multi-year backlog visibility.
Positive Factors
Optical infrastructure growth
Rapid infrastructure growth and a higher optical revenue outlook indicate strong adoption of MaxLinear’s data-center products. Bookings visibility beyond 2027 supports a durable revenue runway, while increasing exposure to optical infrastructure can improve scale and strategic relevance.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Negative operating and free cash flow show that the business is not yet consistently funding operations and investment internally. Continued cash burn can increase reliance on available liquidity and borrowing, limiting flexibility if the expected growth ramp or margin recovery takes longer.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Optical infrastructure growth
Rapid infrastructure growth and a higher optical revenue outlook indicate strong adoption of MaxLinear’s data-center products. Bookings visibility beyond 2027 supports a durable revenue runway, while increasing exposure to optical infrastructure can improve scale and strategic relevance.
Read all positive factors
Maxlinear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Net Revenue by Geography
Shows how sales are distributed across regions, highlighting exposure to major customers, local demand trends, currency moves and trade or regulatory risks. Growth concentrated in diversified or expanding geographies suggests upside, whereas reliance on one country or region raises vulnerability to economic slowdowns, supply‑chain disruptions or geopolitical issues.
Shows how sales are distributed across regions, highlighting exposure to major customers, local demand trends, currency moves and trade or regulatory risks. Growth concentrated in diversified or expanding geographies suggests upside, whereas reliance on one country or region raises vulnerability to economic slowdowns, supply‑chain disruptions or geopolitical issues.
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The Fly
The FlyMaxlinear (MXL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)3.44M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.65
Revenue Growth56.02%
EPS Growth83.39%
CountryUS
Employees1,115
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.34
Shares Outstanding91,000,010
10 Day Avg. Volume3,915,075
30 Day Avg. Volume3,435,202
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.24
Price to Book (P/B)3.34
Price to Sales (P/S)3.23
P/FCF Ratio214.96
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.48
Enterprise Value/Revenue13.52
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit23.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda269.32
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$97.00Price Target Upside46.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)$739.61M
Maxlinear Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MaxLinear, Inc. provides communications systems-on-chip solutions in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. Its products integrate various portions of a high-speed communication system, including radio frequency, high-performance an...
How the Company Makes Money
MaxLinear makes money primarily by selling semiconductor ICs (and related products) to equipment manufacturers and platform vendors in communications and networking. Revenue is recognized from product sales once control transfers to the customer u...
Maxlinear Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly optimistic, supported by 72% year-over-year revenue growth, 210% infrastructure growth, a raised optical data center outlook of $250 million to $270 million, strong backlog visibility through 2027, expanding 1.6-terabit product activity, and improving operating margins. The company also cited seasonal Q4 softness in broadband and connectivity, negative operating cash flow, foundry capacity constraints, qualification bottlenecks, and delayed CPO timing, but these challenges were outweighed by the stated growth momentum and product pipeline.Positive Updates
Strong Q3 Revenue Growth
Third-quarter revenue was $218.1 million, up 29% from $168.8 million in the previous quarter and up 72% from $126.5 million in Q3 2025. Management attributed the growth to accelerating adoption of optical PAM4 products, expanding customer engagements, and strong execution across the infrastructure portfolio.
Negative Updates
Seasonal Q4 Weakness in Broadband and Connectivity
Management expects broadband and connectivity end markets to be down seasonally in Q4 2026, although it expects broadband growth in 2027.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Q3 Revenue Growth
Third-quarter revenue was $218.1 million, up 29% from $168.8 million in the previous quarter and up 72% from $126.5 million in Q3 2025. Management attributed the growth to accelerating adoption of optical PAM4 products, expanding customer engagements, and strong execution across the infrastructure portfolio.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MaxLinear expects fourth-quarter 26 revenue to be between $240 million and $260 million, with strong growth in infrastructure, broadband and connectivity end markets down seasonally, and industrial multimarket end market up; fourth quarter GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 58% to 61% and non GAAP gross margin in the range of 59% to 62% of revenue, GAAP operating expenses in the range of $96 million to $101 million, non GAAP operating expenses in the range of $65 million to $70 million, both GAAP and non GAAP interest and other expense in the range of approximately $3.5 million to $4.3 million, a $1.5 million tax benefit on a GAAP basis and non GAAP tax provision of approximately $1.5 million, and Q4 GAAP and non GAAP diluted share count of approximately 99.7 million each. The company raised its 26 optical data server revenue outlook to $250 million to $270 million, expects another significant step up in revenue next year, expects initial Washington and Anapurna revenues in 2027 followed by a stronger volume ramp in 2028, expects Panther revenue to roughly double this year with potential for another meaningful increase in 2027, expects edge AI driven upgrades to drive growth in 2027 and 2028, expects Rushmore initial revenue in early 27 and a stronger ramp in the second half, expects 1.6T to have a much bigger growth year in 2028, and said 800 can sustain as well and up until probably 2029.Maxlinear Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
42
Neutral
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
34
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 660.53M | 467.64M | 360.53M | 693.26M | 1.12B | 892.40M |
| Gross Profit | 383.17M | 265.81M | 192.42M | 382.78M | 637.81M | 472.20M |
| EBITDA | 33.15M | -58.37M | -181.69M | 9.53M | 255.86M | 145.27M |
| Net Income | -29.37M | -136.68M | -245.20M | -73.15M | 125.04M | 41.97M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 916.43M | 796.40M | 866.88M | 1.08B | 1.19B | 1.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 81.08M | 74.22M | 119.58M | 188.34M | 206.86M | 130.68M |
| Total Debt | 186.00M | 157.34M | 149.36M | 157.75M | 155.60M | 339.68M |
| Total Liabilities | 383.42M | 344.50M | 350.60M | 397.80M | 509.77M | 563.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 533.01M | 451.89M | 516.28M | 686.26M | 676.38M | 489.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -20.62M | 7.02M | -62.98M | 11.59M | 347.47M | 129.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -7.25M | 19.62M | -45.30M | 25.05M | 388.73M | 168.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -20.72M | -19.80M | -23.45M | -15.94M | -91.76M | -91.76M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 25.18M | -18.66M | 1.29M | -8.03M | -240.40M | -91.90M |
Maxlinear Technical Analysis
Negative
66.36
Price Trends
77.20
Negative
79.96
Negative
58.88
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.21
Positive
38.79
Neutral
17.15
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MXL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66.36 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 86.03, below the 50-day MA of 77.20, and above the 200-day MA of 58.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MXL.
Maxlinear Risk Analysis
Maxlinear disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Maxlinear reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Maxlinear Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $191.78B | 20.46 | 37.33% | 2.02% | 1.87% | -16.70% | |
72 Outperform | $18.60B | 76.12 | 17.09% | ― | 28.36% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $12.76B | 82.50 | 25.26% | ― | 17.84% | 464.80% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $19.60B | 42.96 | 5.04% | 3.41% | 0.06% | -22.93% | |
50 Neutral | $6.05B | -189.91 | -6.11% | ― | 56.02% | 83.39% |
* Technology Sector Average
MXL
Maxlinear
66.47
50.54
317.26%
MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings
243.58
97.19
66.39%
QCOM
Qualcomm
179.60
-4.25
-2.31%
SMTC
Semtech
136.73
66.07
93.50%
SWKS
Skyworks Solutions
83.34
9.24
12.48%
Maxlinear Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
MaxLinear Expands Credit Facility to Boost Financial Flexibility
Positive
Oct 22, 2026
On October 22, 2026, MaxLinear reported third quarter 2026 net revenue of $218.1 million, a 29% sequential and 72% year-over-year increase, with GAAP gross margin at 58.7% and a return to profitability at $0.30 diluted EPS after a loss a year earl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.