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Semtech Corp. (SMTC)
NASDAQ:SMTC
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Semtech (SMTC) AI Stock Analysis

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Semtech

(NASDAQ:SMTC)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$48.00
▼(-1.36%Downside)
Semtech's overall stock score reflects a balance of positive momentum and financial improvements tempered by valuation concerns. Strong revenue growth and strategic financial moves support an optimistic outlook, despite past challenges in profitability.
Positive Factors
AI and Data Center Growth
Semtech is benefiting from leadership in optical components for high-speed AI connectivity applications, which significantly boosted its Infrastructure business.
Market Share
Semtech Corp. is gaining market share with its Transient Voltage Suppression and PerSe proximity sensing products, which have a strong position with leading smartphone OEMs.
Product Growth
The company has seen strong growth in its LoRa business, with sales up significantly from previous quarters, showing a rebound and consistent growth.
Negative Factors
Demand Gap
There is a near-term demand gap for CopperEdge due to architecture changes at NVIDIA.
IoT Systems Performance
IoT Systems performed worse than expected due to a seasonal decline.
LoRa Sales Decline
LoRa-enabled solutions will decline in F2Q26 following a build by a medical customer in F1Q26 ahead of a new product launch.

Semtech (SMTC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Semtech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionSemtech Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. It provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical data communications and video transport products used in various infrastructure, and industrial applications; a portfolio of integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, passive optical networks, wireless base station optical transceivers, and high-speed interface applications; and video products for broadcast applications, as well as video-over-IP technology for professional audio video applications. The company also offers protection products, such as filter and termination devices that are integrated with the transient voltage suppressor devices, which protect electronic systems from voltage spikes; and wireless and sensing products comprising a portfolio of specialized radio frequency products used in various industrial, medical, and communications applications, as well as specialized sensing products used in industrial and consumer applications. In addition, it provides power products consisting of switching voltage regulators, combination switching and linear regulators, smart regulators, isolated switches, and wireless charging that control, alter, regulate, and condition the power within electronic systems. The company serves original equipment manufacturers and their suppliers in the enterprise computing, communications, and consumer and industrial end-markets. It sells its products directly, as well as through independent sales representative firms and independent distributors in North America, Europe, Asia- Pacific, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is headquartered in Camarillo, California.
How the Company Makes MoneySemtech makes money primarily through the sale of its semiconductor products and solutions. Revenue is generated from multiple key streams, including sales of signal integrity circuits, which are essential in high-speed communications and data centers; wireless and sensing solutions, which cater to IoT applications; and power management and protection devices, which are crucial for consumer electronics and industrial applications. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with major technology firms, enhancing its market reach and customer base. Additionally, Semtech's focus on innovation and development of cutting-edge technology contributes significantly to its earnings by keeping its product offerings aligned with industry demands.

Semtech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 27, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: 25.48%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Semtech demonstrated strong revenue growth and improved financial metrics, driven by significant gains in the data center and infrastructure segments. However, there are challenges in the IoT systems hardware and consumer markets, as well as a temporary demand gap in CopperEdge. Despite these issues, the overall outlook remains positive with a focus on growth in key areas.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Net Sales
Semtech's Q1 net sales reached a record $251.1 million, up 22% year-over-year, surpassing the midpoint of the company's outlook.
Strong Data Center Growth
Data center net sales were $51.6 million, up 3% sequentially and 143% year-over-year, indicating this segment as a sustainable growth driver.
Infrastructure Market Performance
Infrastructure net sales were $72.8 million, up 5% sequentially and 30% year-over-year, showing solid performance in this segment.
LoRa Technology Growth
LoRa enabled solutions net sales were $38.9 million, up 5% sequentially and 81% year-over-year, with strong demand supporting new product launches and deployments.
Improved Financial Metrics
Adjusted gross margin was 53.5%, up 370 basis points year-over-year, and adjusted operating margin was 19%, up 680 basis points year-over-year.
Debt Reduction and Financial Strength
Net debt decreased by $14.8 million to $396.2 million with an adjusted net leverage ratio below 2, reflecting strong business performance and debt reduction.
Negative Updates
IoT Systems Hardware Decline
IoT systems hardware business recorded net sales of $63.5 million, down 8% sequentially, though up 31% year-over-year, indicating some short-term challenges.
Consumer Market Flat Performance
High end consumer net sales were $35.4 million, flat sequentially and up only 3% year-over-year, showing limited growth in this segment.
CopperEdge Demand Gap
Short-term demand gap in CopperEdge due to platform changes with the anchor customer, impacting the overall demand in this product line.
LoRa Slight Decline Expected
Despite strong growth, LoRa net sales are expected to decline slightly in the next quarter due to project-based spending fluctuations.
Company Guidance
During the Semtech Corporation's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial performance with net sales of $251.1 million, reflecting a 22% year-over-year increase. Key metrics highlighted included an adjusted gross margin of 53.5%, which rose by 30 basis points sequentially and 370 basis points year-over-year. Adjusted operating margin was 19%, a significant improvement of 680 basis points year-over-year. In terms of specific market performance, Infrastructure net sales reached $72.8 million, marking a 5% sequential and 30% year-over-year growth, while Data Center sales hit a record $51.6 million, up 3% sequentially and 143% year-over-year. The company also projected continued growth, expecting second-quarter net sales to reach $256 million, with a gross margin of 53.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.

Semtech Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Semtech's financial performance is mixed, with a negative net income and high leverage posing risks. However, revenue growth and positive cash flow management offer some optimism for recovery.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Semtech's income statement reflects moderate challenges. The TTM data shows negative net income, resulting in a negative net profit margin, which indicates recent profitability issues. However, there is a positive revenue growth trend from the previous year, suggesting potential for recovery. Gross profit margin remains relatively stable, but the negative EBITDA margin highlights operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet shows a mixed position. The debt-to-equity ratio is high, indicating significant leverage, which poses a financial risk. However, the company has managed to improve its equity position compared to previous periods, and the equity ratio suggests moderate asset financing through equity. The return on equity is negative due to recent losses, highlighting profitability concerns.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis highlights some positive aspects. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating good cash generation despite net losses. Free cash flow has shown growth, reflecting improved cash management. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio remains challenging due to negative net income, which impacts overall cash flow stability.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue909.29M868.76M756.53M740.86M595.12M
Gross Profit456.53M296.25M478.56M466.08M363.55M
EBITDA115.07M-851.10M130.82M180.41M100.18M
Net Income-161.90M-1.09B61.38M125.66M59.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.42B1.37B2.57B1.13B1.08B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments164.46M143.13M235.51M279.60M268.89M
Total Debt551.50M1.40B1.34B175.65M179.19M
Total Liabilities876.84M1.68B1.81B393.14M383.15M
Stockholders Equity542.43M-307.43M755.85M737.58M698.74M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow43.78M-125.02M98.39M176.94M86.20M
Operating Cash Flow57.99M-93.92M126.71M203.12M118.93M
Investing Cash Flow-11.89M-22.70M-1.25B-40.32M-42.91M
Financing Cash Flow-21.66M10.55M1.08B-152.10M-100.45M

Semtech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price48.66
Price Trends
50DMA
40.94
Positive
100DMA
37.07
Positive
200DMA
45.97
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
2.24
Negative
RSI
65.17
Neutral
STOCH
81.19
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMTC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.89, above the 50-day MA of 40.94, and above the 200-day MA of 45.97, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 81.19 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for SMTC.

Semtech Risk Analysis

Semtech disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Semtech reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Semtech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$2.60B15.9912.60%10.60%
75
Outperform
$4.01B33.2724.82%1.46%32.63%46.16%
64
Neutral
$4.49B-14.77%2.16%-55.38%
63
Neutral
$34.16B5.47-11.67%1.85%5.30%-18.30%
62
Neutral
$4.17B-93.41%13.83%88.14%
57
Neutral
$5.24B-12.78%65.85%7.92%
55
Neutral
$3.19B87.215.03%1.55%-5.75%-41.75%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SMTC
Semtech
48.66
15.62
47.28%
CAMT
Camtek
91.01
-22.46
-19.79%
POWI
Power Integrations
53.70
-21.14
-28.25%
SLAB
Silicon Laboratories
140.57
21.42
17.98%
SYNA
Synaptics
66.00
-28.36
-30.06%
SITM
SiTime Corporation
205.65
48.53
30.89%

Semtech Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Semtech Reports Strong Q1 2026 Financial Results
Positive
May 27, 2025

On May 27, 2025, Semtech Corporation announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, ending April 27, 2025. The company reported net sales of $251.1 million, marking a 22% year-over-year growth. The GAAP gross margin increased to 52.3%, and the non-GAAP adjusted gross margin rose to 53.5%. Semtech’s GAAP diluted earnings per share improved to $0.22 from a loss of $0.36 a year ago, while the non-GAAP adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $0.38 from $0.06. The company highlighted strong business fundamentals, strategic investments, and debt reduction efforts as key factors contributing to its improved financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (SMTC) stock is a Buy with a $50.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Semtech stock, see the SMTC Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Semtech Expands Credit Facility by $117.5 Million
Positive
Apr 28, 2025

On April 24, 2025, Semtech Corporation amended its existing credit agreement to increase its revolving credit facility by $117.5 million, bringing the total to $455 million. This amendment, which involved three new institutions joining the lending group, partially replaces borrowing capacity that matured in November 2024. Additionally, the company announced a $10 million prepayment on its term loan using cash flow from operations, aligning with its capital allocation priority to reduce leverage.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 28, 2025