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ArcelorMittal
(NYSE:MT)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$66.00
â–¼(-11.45% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/01/26
MT scores in the mid-range primarily due to mixed financial performance: strong revenue rebound and a resilient, moderately levered balance sheet are offset by compressed margins and negative TTM free cash flow. Technicals are supportive with price above key moving averages, while valuation is less compelling (P/E 22.5 and ~0.82% yield). The earnings call adds meaningful support through improving per-ton profitability, constructive shipment guidance, and reiterated EBITDA/FCF improvement initiatives, tempered by carbon-cost and cycle/execution risks.
Positive Factors
Moderate leverage
Moderate leverage gives ArcelorMittal a stronger financial base than a highly indebted steel producer. The substantial equity cushion can support investment and help absorb cyclical volatility, while manageable debt preserves flexibility for operations, growth projects, and capital allocation over the coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Compressed margins
Revenue recovery has not yet translated into a comparable earnings recovery, leaving profitability vulnerable to weaker steel spreads or higher input costs. Persistently compressed margins reduce the buffer available to fund investment, service obligations, and maintain returns through the steel cycle.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Moderate leverage
Moderate leverage gives ArcelorMittal a stronger financial base than a highly indebted steel producer. The substantial equity cushion can support investment and help absorb cyclical volatility, while manageable debt preserves flexibility for operations, growth projects, and capital allocation over the coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
ArcelorMittal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Average Steel Selling Price Per Tonne
Indicates the average price at which steel is sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and potential revenue growth or pressure.
Indicates the average price at which steel is sold, reflecting market demand, pricing power, and potential revenue growth or pressure.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyArcelorMittal (MT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$47.77B
Dividend Yield1.13%
Average Volume (3M)1.30M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.9
Beta (1Y)1.27
Revenue Growth3.25%
EPS Growth-27.63%
CountryUS
Employees125,554
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySteel
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.38
Shares Outstanding775,000,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,758,483
30 Day Avg. Volume1,301,615
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.57
P/FCF Ratio73.82
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.20
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.92
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$76.26Price Target Upside2.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)4.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$67.17B
ArcelorMittal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ArcelorMittal S.A. and its subsidiaries operate as a comprehensive, globally integrated steel production and mining enterprise, with operations spanning Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa. The firm's core steel offerings encompass a...
How the Company Makes Money
ArcelorMittal primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling steel products to industrial and commercial customers. Revenue is generated through (1) sales of flat steel products (including hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil, galvanized and other ...
ArcelorMittal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed clear positive operational and financial momentum across the portfolio: stronger Q2 EBITDA ($2.1bn), elevated per-ton margins ($155/ton company-wide; $98/ton in Europe), counterseasonal production restarts, improved order books and positive free cash flow prospects (annualized $2.5bn excluding seasonal items). Strategic growth projects (targeting $1.8bn incremental EBITDA) and progress on Calvert, India expansion and sustainable solutions add to the constructive outlook. Headwinds are manageable but notable — rising carbon costs in Europe, import/inventory dynamics earlier in the year, China overcapacity timing risk, and near-term execution disruptions (Liberia rainy season). On balance, the highlights and catalysts materially outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Record Safety Performance
Frequency rate of lost time injuries in the first six months reached a record low for the company, indicating measurable progress on safety.
Negative Updates
Rising Carbon Costs with Increased European Production
Management warned that increasing European production will raise incremental carbon costs (ETS) which must be balanced against fixed-cost absorption benefits; this adds cost pressure and modeling uncertainty.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Safety Performance
Frequency rate of lost time injuries in the first six months reached a record low for the company, indicating measurable progress on safety.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to continued improvement across the business, citing Q2 EBITDA of $2.1 billion (≈$155/ton, well above through‑the‑cycle averages) and European EBITDA/ton of $98 (a three‑year high), with all blast furnaces back in operation by August and third‑quarter shipments expected to be stable to higher versus Q2 (a counter‑seasonal outcome). Underlying free cash flow annualized at about $2.5 billion (excluding seasonal working capital and strategic growth CapEx), and management reiterated that its strategic growth projects are expected to add $1.8 billion of incremental EBITDA from 2026 onward (with ~$700 million of that already in scope for 2025–26: $300 million captured in H1 and a further ~$400 million expected in H2). Other metrics highlighted include an India growth ambition to 40 Mtpa, Liberia production guidance of 18 Mt (with ~10 Mt to ship in H2 to hit plan), a sustainable‑solutions target of $750 million EBITDA medium‑term (current run‑rate >$500 million), and the Calvert EAF reaching full capacity later in H2 while a second EAF is being progressed.ArcelorMittal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 62.85B | 61.35B | 62.44B | 68.28B | 79.84B | 76.57B |
| Gross Profit | 5.32B | 5.91B | 5.79B | 5.78B | 13.96B | 19.05B |
| EBITDA | 8.03B | 5.91B | 6.06B | 5.81B | 14.23B | 19.15B |
| Net Income | 1.81B | 3.15B | 1.34B | 919.00M | 9.30B | 14.96B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 99.15B | 97.70B | 89.39B | 93.92B | 94.55B | 90.51B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.90B | 5.48B | 6.40B | 7.69B | 9.30B | 4.21B |
| Total Debt | 14.42B | 13.41B | 11.56B | 10.68B | 11.65B | 8.40B |
| Total Liabilities | 42.33B | 41.17B | 38.10B | 37.85B | 38.96B | 39.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 54.82B | 54.47B | 49.22B | 53.96B | 53.15B | 49.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.92B | 471.00M | 447.00M | 3.03B | 6.74B | 6.90B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.42B | 4.81B | 4.85B | 7.64B | 10.20B | 9.90B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.49B | -4.55B | -4.99B | -5.85B | -4.48B | -340.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 744.07M | -1.77B | -680.00M | -3.67B | -477.00M | -10.90B |
ArcelorMittal Technical Analysis
Neutral
74.53
Price Trends
72.02
Negative
68.86
Negative
62.42
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.74
Positive
36.14
Neutral
18.39
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 74.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.93, above the 50-day MA of 72.02, and above the 200-day MA of 62.42, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.14 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for MT.
ArcelorMittal Risk Analysis
ArcelorMittal disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. ArcelorMittal reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
ArcelorMittal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | $56.79B | 19.95 | 13.53% | 0.89% | 17.19% | 126.38% | |
66 Neutral | $11.42B | 16.07 | 5.77% | 3.78% | -0.65% | 18.90% | |
65 Neutral | $34.17B | 21.53 | 17.60% | 0.88% | 19.77% | 60.80% | |
64 Neutral | $47.77B | 26.85 | 3.31% | 1.13% | 3.25% | -27.63% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
61 Neutral | $9.49B | 30.87 | 2.53% | 2.94% | 8.98% | -21.39% | |
59 Neutral | $16.98B | 17.20 | 2.39% | 2.69% | -3.30% | 164.60% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
MT
ArcelorMittal
64.11
26.20
69.11%
GGB
Gerdau SA
5.12
1.98
63.27%
NUE
Nucor
250.33
114.95
84.90%
PKX
POSCO
57.48
9.51
19.82%
STLD
Steel Dynamics
238.38
94.39
65.55%
TX
Ternium SA
58.18
23.70
68.72%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.