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MINISO Group Holding
(NYSE:MNSO)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
â–²(0.70% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is driven primarily by fundamentals that are mixed: strong growth and gross margins with continued positive free cash flow, but a notable 2025 profitability compression and a sharp increase in leverage raise risk. Technicals are meaningfully weak (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is relatively attractive (P/E ~11 and ~6.16% yield). The latest earnings call adds caution due to margin/profit down-guidance and overseas execution/inventory challenges despite ongoing revenue growth expectations and shareholder returns.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue growth and China market execution
Sustained China growth well above overall retail growth indicates strong product-market fit and store productivity. Continued same-store expansion provides a durable base for revenue growth even as the company moderates overseas expansion.
Negative Factors
Rapid increase in financial leverage
The sharp leverage increase raises financial risk and reduces flexibility if consumer demand weakens or international operations require further investment. Although equity remains sizable, higher debt can constrain future expansion and make earnings less resilient.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue growth and China market execution
Sustained China growth well above overall retail growth indicates strong product-market fit and store productivity. Continued same-store expansion provides a durable base for revenue growth even as the company moderates overseas expansion.
Read all positive factors
MINISO Group Holding (MNSO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.92B
Dividend Yield6.97%
Average Volume (3M)869.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.9
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth30.43%
EPS Growth-44.33%
CountryUS
Employees8,519
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.60
Shares Outstanding303,510,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,270,825
30 Day Avg. Volume869,668
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.63
Price to Book (P/B)3.78
Price to Sales (P/S)1.93
P/FCF Ratio24.33
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.55Price Target Upside27.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)8.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$24.91B
MINISO Group Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MINISO Group Holding Limited functions as an investment holding firm primarily engaged in the global retail and wholesale distribution of a broad spectrum of lifestyle products. The company's operations extend across China, various parts of Asia, ...
How the Company Makes Money
MINISO primarily makes money by selling consumer goods through its retail network under the MINISO brand. Revenue is generated mainly from merchandise sales to customers in company-operated stores and via e-commerce/digital channels where applicab...
MINISO Group Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 28, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong, high-quality growth in China, rapid progress on proprietary IP and membership initiatives, healthy cash generation and shareholder returns are significant positives. However, meaningful execution and profitability challenges in overseas markets, elevated inventory days internationally, increased operating expenses and a more cautious profit/margin outlook introduce notable near-term risks. Management’s clear action plans (slowing overseas rollouts, focusing on ROI and refining store/product cadence) are constructive but indicate a transitional period.Positive Updates
Strong H1 Revenue and Growth
Group H1 revenue of RMB 11.5 billion, up 22.4% YoY; EPS grew 8.2% and operating cash flow/net cash inflow from operations rose ~45% (RMB 1.48 billion). Global store count reached 8,674.
Negative Updates
Overseas Profitability and Execution Challenges
Overseas performance fell short of expectations: overseas contribution to company profit declined from ~35–40% in 2023 to ~10–15% in H1. Management cited distributor revenue declines and directly-operated international markets still in early investment/refinement stage; they will slow overseas store openings and focus on ROI.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong H1 Revenue and Growth
Group H1 revenue of RMB 11.5 billion, up 22.4% YoY; EPS grew 8.2% and operating cash flow/net cash inflow from operations rose ~45% (RMB 1.48 billion). Global store count reached 8,674.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided company revenue to grow high single‑digits in H2 (mid‑double‑digits for the full year), with MINISO China revenue up mid‑to‑upper single‑digits in H2 while overseas revenue grows low single‑digits; they expect overseas distributor revenue to decline low‑double‑digits and overseas directly‑operated business to grow low‑double‑digits, TOP TOY to be roughly flat in H2 (low‑double‑digit growth for the full year), and same‑store growth guidance to remain low single‑digits for MINISO China and North America for the full year. They plan H2 net store moves of a 50–70 net reduction in overseas stores overall (including a net addition of 40–50 directly‑operated stores and a net reduction of 100–110 distributor stores). Profit guidance is more cautious: adjusted operating profit (ex‑FX) is expected to decline high single‑digits Y/Y with adjusted operating profit margin down ~3–4 percentage points; tariff‑refunds should add ~20–30 bps to gross margin over the next two quarters. Management also reiterated a shareholder‑return policy of buybacks plus dividends of no less than 50% of adjusted net profit (ex‑FX).MINISO Group Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 20.86B | 16.99B | 15.26B | 11.47B | 10.09B |
| Gross Profit | 9.39B | 7.64B | 6.48B | 4.44B | 3.07B |
| EBITDA | 3.45B | 4.29B | 3.88B | 2.43B | 1.02B |
| Net Income | 1.17B | 2.62B | 2.50B | 1.77B | 638.17M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 28.65B | 18.12B | 14.49B | 13.45B | 11.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.09B | 6.70B | 6.63B | 7.28B | 5.80B |
| Total Debt | 11.41B | 3.11B | 1.25B | 892.95M | 658.01M |
| Total Liabilities | 17.93B | 7.76B | 5.29B | 4.53B | 4.25B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.63B | 10.31B | 9.17B | 8.90B | 7.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.65B | 1.41B | 1.67B | 1.49B | 172.06M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.62B | 2.17B | 2.20B | 1.67B | 1.41B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.02B | -533.25M | 354.15M | -293.41M | -2.13B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.92B | -1.72B | -2.64B | -325.96M | -733.56M |
MINISO Group Holding Technical Analysis
Negative
11.42
Price Trends
11.72
Negative
12.75
Negative
15.43
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.68
Positive
29.13
Positive
17.70
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNSO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 11.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.87, below the 50-day MA of 11.72, and below the 200-day MA of 15.43, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.13 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.70 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNSO.
MINISO Group Holding Risk Analysis
MINISO Group Holding disclosed 103 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MINISO Group Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Adverse developments affecting financial institutions or the financial services industry in general, such as actual events or concerns involving liquidity, defaults or non-performance by financial institutions or transactional counterparties, could adversely affect our current and projected business operations and our financial condition and results of operations. Q2, 2023
2.
Our business is operated globally. Global inflationary pressures could negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows. Q2, 2023
MINISO Group Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $586.22M | 8.00 | 17.36% | 8.06% | 15.53% | 136.38% | |
74 Outperform | $13.88B | 22.46 | 27.73% | ― | 25.56% | 126.16% | |
70 Outperform | $1.56B | 8.39 | 23.11% | ― | 1.08% | 3.88% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
60 Neutral | $2.92B | 15.86 | 11.79% | 6.97% | 30.43% | -44.33% | |
60 Neutral | $3.93B | 5.20 | -61.76% | 4.10% | -2.18% | 14.77% | |
50 Neutral | $7.53M | 1.05 | 1.71% | 4.71% | 77.22% | -89.32% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
MNSO
MINISO Group Holding
9.56
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MINISO Group Holding Corporate Events
MINISO Cancels Repurchased Shares, Trims Outstanding Equity in Dual Listings
Aug 25, 2026
On August 24, 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited reported changes to its issued share capital following the cancellation of previously repurchased shares on the Hong Kong and New York exchanges. The disclosure shows that the company reduced its ou...
MINISO Group Sets August 28 Date for June Quarter and Interim Results
Aug 17, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited, the global value retailer behind the MINISO and TOP TOY brands, said from Guangzhou on August 14, 2026, that it will report its June quarter and interim financial results before the U.S. market opens on August 28, 202...
MINISO Files July 2026 Monthly Share Capital Return, Confirms Stable Float and Pending Buyback Cancellations
Aug 6, 2026
MINISO Group Holding reported to the U.S. SEC and Hong Kong stock exchange that its authorised share capital remained at 10 billion ordinary shares with a par value of US$0.00001 as of July 31, 2026, with no changes in issued share capital or trea...
MINISO Files June 2026 Hong Kong Share Capital Update, Confirms Buybacks Pending Cancellation
Jul 7, 2026
MINISO reported that its authorised share capital and issued ordinary share count remained unchanged at 10 billion and 1.24 billion shares respectively as of June 30, 2026, while confirming compliance with Hong Kong’s minimum public-float re...
MINISO Shareholders Approve All Resolutions at June 18, 2026 AGM
Jun 22, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited, a global value-focused lifestyle retailer known for its MINISO and TOP TOY brands, has built an extensive international store network since launching in mainland China in 2013. The company targets consumers seeking fa...
MINISO Expands Share Buybacks With New ADS Repurchase on NYSE
Jun 16, 2026
MINISO Group Holding disclosed in a June 16, 2026 filing that its issued share capital on June 10, 2026 remained at 1,238,960,393 ordinary shares, while it executed a share repurchase that day without altering the total issued share count as of th...
MINISO Repurchases 1.57 Million Shares in Hong Kong Under Ongoing Buyback Program
Jun 11, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited has disclosed a series of share repurchases conducted on June 8, 2026, under its existing Hong Kong share buyback mandate, as reported in a Form 6-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on June 11, 20...
MINISO Steps Up Buybacks With HK$30 Million Share Repurchase on June 4
Jun 9, 2026
On June 4, 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited reported via a Hong Kong Stock Exchange Next Day Disclosure Return that it had repurchased 1,152,000 ordinary shares on June 4, 2026, at prices ranging between HK$25.74 and HK$26.12 per share, for a to...
MINISO Files June 6-K Detailing HK$18 Million Share Buyback on Hong Kong Market
Jun 4, 2026
MINISO Group Holding Limited filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission dated June 4, 2026, covering equity-related disclosures for its Hong Kong-listed shares for May and early June 2026. The filing packages several Hong Ko...
MINISO Group Discloses June 1 Share Buyback on Hong Kong Market
Jun 2, 2026
On June 2, 2026, MINISO Group filed a Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for June 2026, detailing Hong Kong regulatory disclosures on its share capital. The filing shows that, as of June 1, 2026, the company’s issued s...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.