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MediaAlpha
(NYSE:MAX)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$12.50
▼(-2.72% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/09/26
MAX scores highest on valuation and forward-looking business momentum (positive guidance, strong free-cash-flow outlook, and ongoing buybacks). The overall score is held back primarily by balance-sheet fragility/leverage sensitivity and currently weak technical momentum (negative MACD and price below key moving averages), despite oversold signals.
Positive Factors
Core Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Double-digit growth guidance indicates continued demand for MediaAlpha’s insurance acquisition platform and supports operating scale over the next several quarters. Core performance excluding under-65 health is expected to be stronger, suggesting the main business retains meaningful momentum.
Negative Factors
Fragile Capitalization
A small equity base makes the balance sheet sensitive to changes in profitability and can amplify financial volatility even after the reported debt reduction. This limits resilience during weaker operating periods and constrains flexibility for investment or unexpected cash needs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Core Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Double-digit growth guidance indicates continued demand for MediaAlpha’s insurance acquisition platform and supports operating scale over the next several quarters. Core performance excluding under-65 health is expected to be stronger, suggesting the main business retains meaningful momentum.
Read all positive factors
MediaAlpha (MAX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$729.04M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)951.08K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8
Beta (1Y)0.91
Revenue Growth13.84%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees147
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.75
Shares Outstanding52,975,710
10 Day Avg. Volume806,856
30 Day Avg. Volume951,077
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)175.09
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio11.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.73
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.00
Enterprise Value/Ebitda432.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$15.08Price Target Upside17.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.31B
MediaAlpha Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MediaAlpha, Inc. (MAX) runs a dedicated platform in the United States designed to enhance customer acquisition within the insurance sector. It specializes in streamlining the process of attracting new clients across various insurance segments, inc...
How the Company Makes Money
MediaAlpha makes money primarily by facilitating performance-based transactions between demand-side insurance advertisers (typically insurance carriers and their distribution partners) and supply-side marketing partners (publishers, comparison sit...
MediaAlpha Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 29, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed multiple strong operational and financial achievements—record revenue, double-digit YoY growth in core metrics, sizable share repurchases, an accretive TRA buyback, and constructive Q3 guidance—while acknowledging manageable near-term headwinds such as a temporary take-rate dip, a small under-65 health drag, and remaining customer concentration risk. Management described broadening advertiser participation and meaningful AI-driven product advantages, supporting a positive outlook.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Revenue of $317.0M in Q2, up 26% year-over-year and above the high end of guidance.
Negative Updates
Mid-Quarter Take-Rate Dip
Take rates dipped in May/early June due to partner-specific short-term investments, causing contribution margin to be weaker than modeled in the quarter before recovering by quarter end.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Revenue of $317.0M in Q2, up 26% year-over-year and above the high end of guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q3 the company guided revenue of $330M–$355M (≈+12% YoY at the midpoint), contribution of $51.5M–$54.5M (≈+16% YoY at the midpoint) and adjusted EBITDA of $32M–$35M (≈+15% YoY at the midpoint), which includes an approximately $1M year‑over‑year decline in contribution from under‑65 health; excluding under‑65 health they expect contribution to rise ~20% and adjusted EBITDA ~21% YoY at the midpoint, with the health vertical ~1% of Q3 revenue. For the remainder of 2026 they expect $90M–$100M of free cash flow and to complete the vast majority of the $45M remaining under their $100M buyback authorization by year‑end; they closed Q2 with $23.7M cash and $30M undrawn on the revolver, have repurchased ~$41M YTD ($88M over the past four quarters, ~13% of outstanding shares), and in June repurchased $69M of TRA liability for $31M (55% discount), recording a $38M gain and projecting a mid‑teens unlevered IRR.MediaAlpha Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
61
Positive
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.22B | 1.11B | 864.70M | 388.15M | 459.07M | 645.27M |
| Gross Profit | 180.09M | 164.56M | 143.57M | 66.71M | 70.06M | 101.52M |
| EBITDA | 2.08M | -96.57M | 60.50M | -28.35M | 45.85M | 1.66M |
| Net Income | 97.22M | 25.62M | 16.63M | -40.42M | -57.67M | -5.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 359.82M | 383.83M | 262.45M | 153.93M | 170.08M | 289.80M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.75M | 46.88M | 43.27M | 17.27M | 14.54M | 50.56M |
| Total Debt | 176.71M | 155.20M | 162.44M | 174.30M | 186.29M | 190.78M |
| Total Liabilities | 364.76M | 413.02M | 308.68M | 248.35M | 256.17M | 351.37M |
| Stockholders Equity | 28.41M | 4.16M | 2.38M | -10.29M | -15.99M | -4.34M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56.28M | 65.26M | 45.62M | 20.16M | 28.18M | 27.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 57.21M | 65.60M | 45.87M | 20.23M | 28.27M | 28.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -924.00K | -340.00K | -654.00K | -73.00K | -49.77M | -650.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -117.92M | -61.65M | -19.22M | -17.43M | -14.52M | -961.00K |
MediaAlpha Technical Analysis
Positive
12.85
Price Trends
11.31
Positive
11.73
Positive
10.60
Positive
Market Momentum
0.29
Negative
59.55
Neutral
85.07
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MAX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.52, above the 50-day MA of 11.31, and above the 200-day MA of 10.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.07 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for MAX.
MediaAlpha Risk Analysis
MediaAlpha disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MediaAlpha reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
MediaAlpha Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $801.35M | 7.15 | 50.29% | 1.11% | 22.75% | 144.55% | |
78 Outperform | $698.68M | 12.01 | 18.07% | ― | 11.51% | 42.17% | |
72 Outperform | $2.81B | 16.86 | 56.25% | ― | 6.01% | 47.62% | |
63 Neutral | $729.04M | 6.80 | 8214.45% | ― | 13.84% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
52 Neutral | $268.48M | -1.21 | -25.18% | ― | -8.83% | -554.39% | |
45 Neutral | $24.54M | -2.09 | -29.62% | ― | 6.32% | 31.20% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
MAX
MediaAlpha
11.88
0.47
4.12%
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MediaAlpha Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MediaAlpha Reduces TRA Liabilities With New Agreement
Positive
Sep 9, 2026
On September 9, 2026, MediaAlpha entered into an Assignment, Assumption and Termination Agreement to purchase Parallaxes Mars entities’ interest in its Tax Receivables Agreement for $12.0 million in cash, representing a 47% discount to the e...
Executive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
MediaAlpha Names New CFO Amid Upgraded Q3 Outlook
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
On September 2, 2026, MediaAlpha’s board approved the appointment of Senior Vice President of Finance and former longtime finance executive Tigran Sinanyan as chief financial officer and treasurer, effective October 1, 2026, under a new empl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.