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Lincoln National
(NYSE:LNC)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$47.00
▲(8.49% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/30/26
The score is driven primarily by a recovering earnings and balance-sheet profile but held back by persistently negative and inconsistent operating/free cash flow. Valuation is a major positive (very low P/E and solid dividend yield), while technicals are neutral-to-mildly constructive and recent corporate actions/results modestly reinforce the improving capital flexibility story.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability
The rebound in profitability and revenue indicates improved operating performance across Lincoln’s insurance and retirement businesses. Sustaining these gains would strengthen earnings capacity and provide a more durable base for capital allocation.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Conversion
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow raises concern about the quality and durability of reported earnings. Continued cash outflows could constrain dividends, debt management, and investment in growth even if accounting profitability remains strong.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability
The rebound in profitability and revenue indicates improved operating performance across Lincoln’s insurance and retirement businesses. Sustaining these gains would strengthen earnings capacity and provide a more durable base for capital allocation.
Read all positive factors
Lincoln National Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Type
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which products or services drive sales and revealing diversification or dependency on specific revenue streams.
Breaks down income sources, highlighting which products or services drive sales and revealing diversification or dependency on specific revenue streams.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyLincoln National (LNC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$8.29B
Dividend Yield4.16%
Average Volume (3M)1.70M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.6
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth12.32%
EPS Growth97.86%
CountryUS
Employees9,423
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)12.00
Shares Outstanding191,447,340
10 Day Avg. Volume1,710,153
30 Day Avg. Volume1,702,440
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.11
Price to Book (P/B)0.75
Price to Sales (P/S)0.45
P/FCF Ratio-48.71
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.30Price Target Upside11.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)7.94
Revenue Forecast (FY)$19.80B
Lincoln National Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lincoln National Corporation (LNC) is a U.S.-based financial services company primarily involved in the insurance and retirement sectors. Operating through various subsidiaries, its operations are structured across four key divisions: Annuities, R...
How the Company Makes Money
Lincoln National primarily makes money through insurance and retirement product economics across life insurance, annuities, and group/employee benefits. Key revenue and earnings drivers include: (1) Premiums from insurance policies: The company co...
Lincoln National Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a clear net-positive operational and capital story: adjusted operating income growth (16% YoY), diversified and improving business mix (notably in Group Protection, Life, FIAs and spread-based annuities), strong alternative investment returns, and solid capital and liquidity metrics (RBC >420%, leverage at 25%, holding company liquidity ~ $805M net). Near-term challenges include a GAAP net loss driven by market-related items, sizable variable annuity outflows, a higher disability loss ratio (PFML and LTD resolution impacts), a one-time tax true-up and some sequential pressure in annuity balances/fee income. Management framed these headwinds as manageable and largely expected within their strategic transition. Overall, positive execution and financial flexibility outweigh the near-term operational and market-driven headwinds.Positive Updates
Adjusted Operating Income Growth
Adjusted operating income increased 16% year-over-year, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of YoY growth; adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $326 million or $1.66 per diluted share.
Negative Updates
GAAP Net Loss Driven by Market Risk Benefits
Reported GAAP net loss available to common stockholders was $211 million (loss of $1.10 per diluted share), primarily due to negative movement in market risk benefits amid lower equity markets despite strong adjusted operating income.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Adjusted Operating Income Growth
Adjusted operating income increased 16% year-over-year, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of YoY growth; adjusted operating income available to common stockholders was $326 million or $1.66 per diluted share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance and outlook highlighted a mix of near‑term expectations and multi‑year targets: management expects RILA sales in 2026 to be in line with the multi‑year average and reiterated a 3–6% medium‑term premium growth target for Group Protection; Retirement Plan Services expects Q2 net outflows of $2.0–$2.5 billion; alternative investments target a ~10% annualized return (Q1 alts returned 3.1% or ~12% annualized, ~$129M pre‑tax and roughly $19M after‑tax, or ~$0.10/share above target), though Q2 may see variability; Q2 annuities should get a sequential tailwind from normalization of a $7M tax true‑up and an extra fee day plus continued spread income growth. Key Q1 metrics to frame the guidance: adjusted operating income available to common of $326M ($1.66/diluted share), up 16% YoY and the seventh consecutive quarter of YoY growth (GAAP net loss was $211M, -$1.10/sh); total sales $3.9B with spread‑based products 64% of sales; annuities operating income $275M (account balances net of reinsurance $169B, +7% YoY; RILA balances +15%, fixed annuity balances +24%; spread‑based products 31% of annuity balances), total annuity net outflows ~$2.2B (traditional VA outflows ~$2.6B) with RILA net inflows ~$285M and fixed annuity net inflows ~$100M; FIA sales up >90% YoY, fixed annuity sales $716M, VA sales $1.4B; Group Protection operating income $112M (+11% YoY) with an 8% margin (+60bps), group life loss ratio ~67% (improved >800bps) and disability loss ratio 73.4%; Life operating income $41M (vs -$16M LY) with life sales $129M (+30% YoY; Core Life & MoneyGuard $96M, +20%; executive benefits nearly doubled); Retirement Plan Services operating income $43M (+26% YoY), first‑year sales $1.1B (+~3%), deposits $4.1B, base spreads 116bps (+13bps) and average account balances ~$125B (+~10%); G&A net of capitalization $589M; capital and liquidity targets remain intact (estimated RBC well above 400% and above the 420% buffer, leverage ratio improved to 25% at its long‑term target, holding company liquidity ~ $1.2B including $400M prefunding, or ~$805M net of prefunding).Lincoln National Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 19.36B | 18.21B | 17.99B | 11.71B | 18.93B | 17.61B |
| Gross Profit | 11.13B | 10.44B | 4.60B | 50.00M | 2.43B | 3.90B |
| EBITDA | 3.16B | 1.56B | 4.45B | -773.00M | 2.07B | 4.96B |
| Net Income | 2.36B | 1.18B | 3.27B | -752.00M | 1.36B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 429.80B | 417.20B | 390.83B | 372.41B | 334.33B | 391.57B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 52.32B | 46.40B | 26.72B | 100.94B | 110.17B | 2.61B |
| Total Debt | 6.87B | 6.43B | 6.36B | 6.12B | 6.63B | 6.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 418.45B | 406.30B | 382.56B | 365.52B | 329.23B | 371.30B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.35B | 10.91B | 8.27B | 6.89B | 5.10B | 20.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.33B | -167.00M | -2.01B | -2.07B | 3.61B | -217.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -1.33B | -167.00M | -2.01B | -2.07B | 3.61B | -217.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.58B | -4.01B | 821.00M | -3.33B | -11.65B | -3.58B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 6.92B | 7.88B | 3.62B | 5.43B | 8.77B | 4.71B |
Lincoln National Technical Analysis
Positive
43.32
Price Trends
41.58
Positive
38.52
Positive
38.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Positive
50.53
Neutral
35.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LNC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 43.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.51, above the 50-day MA of 41.58, and above the 200-day MA of 38.64, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for LNC.
Lincoln National Risk Analysis
Lincoln National disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Lincoln National reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Lincoln National Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $13.28B | 11.35 | 20.28% | 0.69% | 5.24% | 21.35% | |
73 Outperform | $5.12B | 18.64 | 10.82% | 1.30% | 5.72% | 7.05% | |
73 Outperform | $3.14B | 8.00 | 8.86% | 3.27% | 13.68% | 16.86% | |
69 Neutral | $9.09B | 167.70 | 1.04% | 2.85% | 15.09% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $8.29B | 3.61 | 21.99% | 4.35% | 12.32% | 97.86% | |
50 Neutral | $3.05B | 4.17 | 13.17% | ― | 2.62% | 33.55% |
* Financial Sector Average
LNC
Lincoln National
43.29
2.30
5.60%
CNO
CNO Financial
55.37
16.54
42.61%
GL
Globe Life
172.79
33.97
24.47%
BHF
Brighthouse Financial
53.04
6.88
14.90%
JXN
Jackson Financial Incorporation
134.16
38.60
40.40%
FG
F&G Annuities & Life Inc
23.99
-9.43
-28.22%
Lincoln National Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Lincoln National Announces CFO Transition and Interim Appointment
Neutral
Aug 10, 2026
On August 6, 2026, Lincoln Financial’s Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Chris Neczypor informed the company he will depart at the end of August to pursue an opportunity outside the industry, with the firm stressing his ex...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Lincoln National posts strong second-quarter earnings and growth
Positive
Jul 30, 2026
On July 30, 2026, Lincoln Financial reported strong second-quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2026, with net income available to common stockholders rising to $1.3 billion, or $6.72 per diluted share, and adjusted operating income of $4...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Lincoln National Issues $500 Million Subordinated Notes Offering
Positive
Jun 29, 2026
On June 24, 2026, Lincoln National entered into an underwriting agreement with a syndicate led by Wells Fargo Securities, BofA Securities, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and TD Securities to issue $500 million of 6.800% fixed-to-fixed reset rate su...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Lincoln National Shareholders Reaffirm Board, Reject Chair Proposal
Positive
Jun 1, 2026
At Lincoln National’s 2026 Annual Meeting held on May 28, 2026, shareholders elected ten directors to the board for terms expiring at the 2027 annual meeting, reaffirming the company’s existing leadership slate. Investors also approved...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.