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KeyCorp
(NYSE:KEY)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$21.00
â–¼(-4.93% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/20/26
The score is driven primarily by a mid-range financial profile: strong profitability recovery but weakening TTM revenue and notably softer cash-flow momentum. Earnings-call indicators are a key positive, reflecting strong operating momentum, improved credit outlook, and supportive guidance and buybacks. Offsetting these, technicals are weak with the stock below major moving averages and bearish MACD/RSI readings, while valuation is supportive due to a modest P/E and ~4% dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Relationship and Fee Growth
KeyCorp’s relationship-led model is gaining clients and deepening household connections while fee businesses expand across investment banking, payments, and wealth management. This diversification can improve revenue resilience, increase cross-selling, and reduce reliance on lending spreads over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weakening Recent Revenue Trend
Despite the recent earnings recovery, the latest trailing revenue contraction shows that operating momentum has not been consistently broad-based. Revenue weakness and a lower operating margin than in prior peak periods could constrain future earnings growth if lending and fee expansion moderate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Relationship and Fee Growth
KeyCorp’s relationship-led model is gaining clients and deepening household connections while fee businesses expand across investment banking, payments, and wealth management. This diversification can improve revenue resilience, increase cross-selling, and reduce reliance on lending spreads over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
KeyCorp Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Assets by Segment
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Breaks down the company's assets across different segments, indicating where the company is investing its resources and potential areas of strength or risk.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyKeyCorp (KEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$22.50B
Dividend Yield3.89%
Average Volume (3M)17.83M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth8.34%
EPS Growth125.21%
CountryUS
Employees17,883
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryBanks - Regional
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.73
Shares Outstanding1,067,128,500
10 Day Avg. Volume20,660,101
30 Day Avg. Volume17,832,712
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)2.02
P/FCF Ratio10.76
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.70
Enterprise Value/Ebitda20.24
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$24.53Price Target Upside11.06% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)1.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.09B
KeyCorp Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
KeyCorp functions as the parent entity for KeyBank National Association, delivering a wide array of banking services to retail and business clients across the United States. Its operations are distinctly segmented into a Consumer Bank and a Commer...
How the Company Makes Money
KeyCorp makes money primarily by earning interest income on loans and investments, generating fee-based (noninterest) income from banking and advisory services, and managing its funding and operating costs.
1) Net interest income (core banking sp...
KeyCorp Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 20, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive, supported by record revenue and PPNR, 24% year-over-year EPS growth, 15.1% ROTCE, strong deposit and commercial loan growth, improving credit quality, higher guidance for loan growth and net interest income, and continued confidence in the 2027 return and margin targets. Management also highlighted ongoing investments in technology, AI, bankers, and fee-based businesses. The principal challenges were macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, intense deposit competition, expected near-term moderation in earning-asset growth, depressed middle-market M&A and transactional real estate activity, and higher expenses. Overall, the positive operating momentum and improved guidance significantly outweighed the stated challenges.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Earnings Growth
Third-quarter earnings were $0.51 per share, up 24% year-over-year. Revenue exceeded $2 billion, a quarterly record and an 8% year-over-year increase. PPNR reached a record level, increased $60 million sequentially, and the company expects both record revenue and record PPNR for full-year 2026.
Negative Updates
Macro, Geopolitical, and Rate Uncertainty
Management acknowledged that the geopolitical and macro outlook remains uncertain, that the broader market contains uncertainty, and that the bank is managing risks for a range of potential economic and interest-rate scenarios.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Earnings Growth
Third-quarter earnings were $0.51 per share, up 24% year-over-year. Revenue exceeded $2 billion, a quarterly record and an 8% year-over-year increase. PPNR reached a record level, increased $60 million sequentially, and the company expects both record revenue and record PPNR for full-year 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
KeyCorp tightened 2026 guidance to approximately 10% net interest income growth versus 9%-11% previously, average loan growth of approximately 5% versus 4%-5%, average commercial loan growth of approximately 10% versus 8%-10%, and full-year net charge-offs in the range of 37-39 basis points versus 40-45 basis points previously; it expects fourth-quarter 2026 net interest margin of approximately 3%, average earning asset growth of approximately $1.5 billion-$2 billion from the third quarter, full-year expense growth of 4%, commercial mortgage servicing fees of $50 million-$60 million, mid-single digit investment banking fee growth this year, loan growth for the remainder of 2026 to be fully client deposit funded, and incremental client deposit growth beyond the original $3 billion; it remains on pace for a $1.3 billion 2026 share repurchase target, expects a record revenue and record PPNR year in 2026, and expects another year of outsized revenue and earnings growth in 2027, with 15%+ ROTCE by year end 2027, 3.25%+ NIM for 4Q 2027, and a current long-term target between 16% and 19%; it expects beta in the rate hiking cycle to be roughly symmetrical to the rate easing cycle, reaching a mid-fifties cumulative beta over time, with low 40s beta in the fourth quarter and movement to mid-50s over the next probably first or second quarter of 2027, while post 2027 it could be managing to sort of 3% annual expense growth.KeyCorp Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
67
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 10.48B | 11.19B | 9.05B | 10.23B | 7.91B | 7.33B |
| Gross Profit | 6.76B | 6.97B | 4.06B | 5.73B | 6.52B | 7.46B |
| EBITDA | 1.90B | 2.33B | -233.00M | 1.31B | 2.50B | 3.29B |
| Net Income | 2.03B | 1.83B | -161.00M | 967.00M | 1.92B | 2.63B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 191.32B | 184.38B | 187.17B | 188.28B | 189.81B | 186.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 40.17B | 11.45B | 22.51B | 48.94B | 42.44B | 57.29B |
| Total Debt | 14.65B | 11.00B | 14.25B | 22.64B | 28.77B | 12.80B |
| Total Liabilities | 171.52B | 164.00B | 168.99B | 173.64B | 176.36B | 168.92B |
| Stockholders Equity | 19.80B | 20.38B | 18.18B | 14.64B | 13.45B | 17.42B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.20B | 2.10B | 599.00M | 2.76B | 4.36B | 1.09B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.31B | 2.21B | 664.00M | 2.90B | 4.47B | 1.15B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.40B | 3.22B | 2.50B | 1.42B | -10.93B | -15.07B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.03B | -5.88B | -2.36B | -4.27B | 6.44B | 13.74B |
KeyCorp Technical Analysis
Positive
22.09
Price Trends
21.03
Positive
21.81
Negative
21.24
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Negative
59.42
Neutral
92.44
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For KEY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.24, above the 50-day MA of 21.03, and above the 200-day MA of 21.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.44 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for KEY.
KeyCorp Risk Analysis
KeyCorp disclosed 22 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. KeyCorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
KeyCorp Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $26.28B | 12.17 | 10.90% | 0.35% | -0.39% | 15.37% | |
73 Outperform | $31.78B | 12.19 | 8.19% | 3.94% | 23.86% | -14.22% | |
72 Outperform | $32.01B | 11.53 | 10.65% | 2.71% | 0.14% | 18.15% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $27.44B | 13.03 | 8.74% | 2.82% | 3.59% | 39.34% | |
66 Neutral | $24.25B | 11.03 | 12.32% | 3.85% | 0.60% | 12.74% | |
61 Neutral | $22.50B | 11.52 | 10.88% | 3.89% | 8.34% | 125.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
KEY
KeyCorp
21.08
4.17
24.63%
FCNCA
First Citizens BancShares
2,375.84
597.16
33.57%
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares
15.73
0.67
4.45%
MTB
M&T Bank
221.66
43.84
24.65%
RF
Regions Financial
28.47
5.17
22.20%
CFG
Citizens Financial
65.14
14.75
29.26%
KeyCorp Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp outlines strategic growth plans and capital priorities
Positive
Sep 25, 2026
On September 25, 2026, KeyCorp posted a detailed investor presentation outlining its strategic progress and outlook, highlighting strong momentum in fee-based businesses, disciplined balance sheet growth and a de-risked credit profile. The materia...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
KeyCorp outlines 2026 growth strategy and earnings outlook
Positive
Sep 14, 2026
KeyCorp reviewed its performance, strategy, and outlook at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference held on September 14, 2026. The company presented expectations for fiscal 2026 on an operating basis, projecting mid- to high-single-digit...
Business Operations and Strategy
KeyCorp Plans Redemption of Series D Preferred Stock
Neutral
Aug 14, 2026
On August 14, 2026, KeyCorp announced that it had given notice of its plan to redeem all 525,000 depositary shares representing its Series D Fixed-to-Floating Rate Perpetual Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock on September 15, 2026. The outstanding dep...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.