KeyCorp (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

KeyCorp tightened 2026 guidance to approximately 10% net interest income growth versus 9%-11% previously, average loan growth of approximately 5% versus 4%-5%, average commercial loan growth of approximately 10% versus 8%-10%, and full-year net charge-offs in the range of 37-39 basis points versus 40-45 basis points previously; it expects fourth-quarter 2026 net interest margin of approximately 3%, average earning asset growth of approximately $1.5 billion-$2 billion from the third quarter, full-year expense growth of 4%, commercial mortgage servicing fees of $50 million-$60 million, mid-single digit investment banking fee growth this year, loan growth for the remainder of 2026 to be fully client deposit funded, and incremental client deposit growth beyond the original $3 billion; it remains on pace for a $1.3 billion 2026 share repurchase target, expects a record revenue and record PPNR year in 2026, and expects another year of outsized revenue and earnings growth in 2027, with 15%+ ROTCE by year end 2027, 3.25%+ NIM for 4Q 2027, and a current long-term target between 16% and 19%; it expects beta in the rate hiking cycle to be roughly symmetrical to the rate easing cycle, reaching a mid-fifties cumulative beta over time, with low 40s beta in the fourth quarter and movement to mid-50s over the next probably first or second quarter of 2027, while post 2027 it could be managing to sort of 3% annual expense growth.