JPMorgan Chase (JPM) AI Stock Analysis

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JPMorgan Chase

(NYSE:JPM)

82Outperform

JPMorgan Chase & Co. demonstrates robust financial health with strong profitability and revenue growth. While the earnings call noted some risks, particularly regarding credit costs and economic uncertainty, these are balanced by effective management and strategic initiatives. The mixed technical indicators and fair valuation suggest stability, but caution is advised due to potential cash flow issues.

Positive Factors

Capital Management

The capital build combined with a best-in-class ROTCE have been gamechangers for the stock, providing ample flexibility to compete for business.

Financial Performance

JPMorgan Chase continues to outperform peers, delivering stronger-than-expected net interest income and gaining deposit market share across the US.

Technology and Innovation

AI adoption fueled by JPM's industry leading ~$18B tech budget is expected to improve margins.

Negative Factors

Economic Environment

Potential recessionary risks include higher-than-expected inflation and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the macroeconomic environment, which may lead to slower loan growth and higher credit losses.

International Expansion

JPMorgan's international retail expansion involves substantial execution risks and heavy spending, which may impact profitability in the short term.

Leadership and Management

Single biggest idiosyncratic risk factor for the stock is CEO succession, as investors are not quite ready for CEO Jamie Dimon to pass on the baton.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$743.57B

Dividend Yield1.89%

Average Volume (3M)11.64M

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.1

Beta (1Y)1.16

Revenue Growth12.48%

EPS Growth23.05%

CountryUS

Employees318,477

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength85

IndustryBanks - Diversified

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)5.07

Shares Outstanding2,779,094,500

10 Day Avg. Volume7,893,616

30 Day Avg. Volume11,638,889

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio3.75

Price to Book (P/B)2.03

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-118.61

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.73

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.66

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.89

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.66

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$267.44

Price Target Upside-0.04% Downside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering19

JPMorgan Chase Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionJPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is a leading global financial services firm with operations worldwide. The company operates through several key segments, including Consumer & Community Banking, Corporate & Investment Bank, Commercial Banking, and Asset & Wealth Management. It offers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services, including banking, investment, and wealth management solutions, serving a diverse range of clients from individual consumers to large corporations and government entities.

How the Company Makes MoneyJPMorgan Chase & Co. generates revenue through a variety of channels. The Consumer & Community Banking segment earns money primarily from interest and fees on loans and deposits provided to individuals and small businesses. The Corporate & Investment Bank segment derives income from investment banking services, such as underwriting and advisory fees, as well as trading and market-making activities. The company's Commercial Banking segment earns revenue from providing financial solutions, including lending and treasury services, to mid-sized businesses. Finally, the Asset & Wealth Management segment generates income from management fees and advisory services related to investment products and wealth management for individuals and institutions. Additionally, JPMorgan Chase benefits from strategic partnerships and its extensive global network, enhancing its capability to offer a broad range of financial services.

JPMorgan Chase Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Assets Under Management

Assets Under Management
Shows the total value of assets managed on behalf of clients, signaling the firm's investment management scale and potential fee income.

Chart InsightsJPMorgan Chase's Assets Under Management have shown a robust upward trajectory, reaching over $4 trillion by early 2025. This growth is underpinned by strong performance in the Asset & Wealth Management segment, which reported a 12% increase in revenue, driven by management fees and net inflows. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and increased credit costs, the firm's strategic focus on asset growth and market positioning has bolstered its financial stability and investor confidence, as evidenced by significant capital distribution to shareholders.

Data provided by:

Main Street Data

JPMorgan Chase Financial Statement Overview

Summary

JPMorgan Chase & Co. shows strong financial performance with impressive revenue and net income growth. The balance sheet is robust with balanced leverage and a strong return on equity. However, cash flow management poses challenges which slightly temper the overall score.

Income Statement

Very Positive

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has demonstrated robust revenue growth, increasing from $145.67 billion in 2023 to $166.88 billion in 2024, marking a 14.58% growth rate. The gross profit margin remains strong at 100% as expected in the banking industry, and net profit margin improved to 35.03% in 2024 from 34.01% in 2023. The EBIT margin has also improved, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency. The company shows strong profitability metrics, consistent with top-tier industry performance.

Balance Sheet

Very Positive

The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.24 in 2024, which is a standard level for the banking industry, indicating a balanced leverage position. Return on equity is strong at 16.96%, showcasing effective utilization of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio has marginally increased to 8.61% in 2024 from 8.46% in 2023, indicating a stable financial position. The balance sheet reflects both strong equity growth and manageable leverage.

Cash Flow

Positive

The cash flow situation presents some challenges, with operating cash flow data unavailable for 2024. In the previous year, the ratio of operating cash flow to net income was less than optimal at 0.26 in 2023. The free cash flow growth rate from 2022 to 2023 was negative, indicating potential issues in cash generation relative to profit. Despite these challenges, the company has historically maintained strong cash reserves, which provides a buffer against potential cash flow volatility.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
228.61B	166.88B	145.67B	128.64B	121.69B	119.88B
	Gross Profit
186.05B	166.88B	154.95B	128.64B	121.69B	119.88B
	EBIT
99.91B	84.63B	70.54B	52.52B	65.02B	41.76B
	EBITDA
104.01B	83.02B	78.06B	59.57B	72.96B	50.37B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
59.70B	58.47B	49.55B	37.68B	48.33B	29.13B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.66T	1.66T	0.00	763.93B	1.03T	883.56B
	Total Assets
4.00T	4.00T	3.88T	3.67T	3.74T	3.39T
	Total Debt
454.31B	454.31B	436.54B	466.73B	469.18B	426.45B
	Net Debt
-15.01B	-15.01B	-187.61B	-100.51B	-271.66B	-101.16B
	Total Liabilities
3.66T	3.66T	3.55T	3.37T	3.45T	3.11T
	Stockholders Equity
344.76B	344.76B	327.88B	292.33B	294.13B	279.35B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-139.69B	-42.01B	12.97B	107.12B	78.08B	-79.91B
	Operating Cash Flow
-139.69B	-42.01B	12.97B	107.12B	78.08B	-79.91B
	Investing Cash Flow
-238.10B	-163.40B	67.64B	-137.82B	-129.34B	-261.91B
	Financing Cash Flow
240.34B	63.45B	-25.57B	-126.26B	275.99B	596.64B

JPMorgan Chase Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price267.56

Price Trends

50DMA

241.06

Positive

100DMA

248.83

Positive

200DMA

234.54

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

7.29

Negative

RSI

67.53

Neutral

STOCH

86.10

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For JPM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 267.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 252.15, above the 50-day MA of 241.06, and above the 200-day MA of 234.54, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 7.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for JPM.

JPMorgan Chase Risk Analysis

JPMorgan Chase disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. JPMorgan Chase reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

JPMorgan Chase Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JPM	82 Outperform	$743.57B	13.13	17.25%	1.89%	12.48%	23.05%
HSBC	80 Outperform	$206.83B	10.87	10.83%	5.57%	-1.91%	-6.79%
WFC	78 Outperform	$247.90B	13.69	11.05%	2.03%	3.51%	16.51%
BAC	73 Outperform	$336.60B	13.34	9.46%	2.28%	8.23%	16.15%
MUFG	65 Neutral	$151.75B	12.90	9.18%	1.74%	13.21%	-12.06%
C	64 Neutral	$141.42B	11.96	6.30%	2.92%	2.97%	87.82%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.82B	9.83	7.68%	17000.34%	12.38%	-5.56%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

JPM

JPMorgan Chase

264.88

73.73

38.57%

BAC

Bank of America

44.77

6.89

18.19%

Citigroup

76.13

15.04

24.62%

HSBC

HSBC Holdings

59.67

18.12

43.61%

MUFG

Mitsubishi UFJ

13.75

4.01

41.17%

WFC

Wells Fargo

76.06

16.78

28.31%

JPMorgan Chase Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 11, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: 17.81%|

Next Earnings Date:Jul 15, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

JPMorgan Chase delivered strong financial results with significant growth in revenue and net income, particularly in the Commercial & Investment Bank and Asset & Wealth Management segments. However, the company faces challenges from increased credit costs, a decline in NII ex. Markets, and a highly uncertain macroeconomic environment that has led to a substantial reserve build. Expenses have also risen due to higher compensation and fees.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Net Income and Revenue Growth

JPMorgan Chase reported net income of $14.6 billion and EPS of $5.07 on revenue of $46 billion, with an ROTCE of 21%. Revenue was up $3.5 billion or 8% year-on-year.

Commercial & Investment Bank Performance

CIB reported net income of $6.9 billion on revenue of $19.7 billion, which is up 12% year-on-year. IB fees were up 12% year-on-year, with advisory fees up 16% and debt underwriting fees up 16%.

Asset & Wealth Management Growth

AWM reported net income of $1.6 billion, with a pre-tax margin of 35%. Revenue of $5.7 billion was up 12% year-on-year, driven by growth in management fees, net inflows, and higher market levels.

Card Services & Auto Segment Growth

Revenue in Card Services & Auto was up 12% year-on-year, driven by Card NII, higher revolving balances, and higher operating lease income in Auto. Card outstandings were up 10%, and Auto originations were $10.7 billion, up 20%.

Successful Capital Distribution

JPMorgan Chase distributed $11 billion of capital to shareholders, reflecting $7.1 billion of net common share repurchases and an increased common dividend of $1.40 per share.

Negative Updates

Increased Credit Costs and Reserve Build

Credit costs were $3.3 billion, with net charge-offs of $2.3 billion and a net reserve build of $973 million, reflecting increased downside scenarios in the CECL framework.

NII ex. Markets Decline

NII ex. Markets was down $430 million or 2%, driven by lower rates, deposit margin compression, and lower deposit balances in CCB.

Uncertain Macroeconomic Outlook

There is elevated uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, with a weighted average unemployment rate of 5.8% embedded in the allowance for credit losses.

Higher Expenses

Expenses of $23.6 billion were up $840 million or 4% year-on-year, largely driven by compensation, growth in employees, brokerage and distribution fees, as well as marketing and legal expenses.

Company Guidance

During JPMorgan Chase's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the firm reported a net income of $14.6 billion, translating to an EPS of $5.07 on revenue of $46 billion, with a return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) of 21%. The revenue saw an 8% year-on-year increase, driven by a $1.7 billion or 21% rise in Markets revenue, despite a 2% decline in NII ex. Markets. The firm's expenses rose by 4% to $23.6 billion, influenced by increased compensation and legal expenses. Credit costs were $3.3 billion, with net charge-offs of $2.3 billion and a net reserve build of $973 million, bringing the total allowance for credit losses to $27.6 billion. The firm maintained a CET1 ratio of 15.4%, distributing $11 billion to shareholders. For the full year, JPMorgan Chase expects NII ex. Markets to be around $90 billion and anticipates a card net charge-off rate of about 3.6%. The firm expressed a cautious stance on investment banking due to elevated risks and uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment.

JPMorgan Chase Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures

JPMorgan Chase Q1 2025 Earnings Presentation Highlights

Neutral

Apr 11, 2025

On April 11, 2025, JPMorgan Chase held an investor presentation to review its first quarter earnings for 2025. The presentation included slides that were posted on the company’s website, although these slides are not considered filed under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. The report also contained forward-looking statements that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, with actual results potentially differing from those projected. These insights are crucial for stakeholders to understand the potential impact on the company’s operations and industry positioning.

Spark’s Take on JPM Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, JPM is a Outperform.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. maintains a strong financial position with robust profitability and effective debt management. The stock is attractively valued, though technical indicators suggest potential short-term consolidation. Positive earnings call highlights and recent corporate events bolster the stock’s outlook.

To see Spark’s full report on JPM stock, click here.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.