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InnovAge Holding
(NASDAQ:INNV)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$11.50
▲(5.31% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance—especially the swing to strong positive operating and free cash flow and reduced leverage—alongside supportive earnings-call momentum with raised FY2026 guidance and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins. These positives are tempered by still-negative profitability/returns, near-term technical weakness (below 20D/50D with negative MACD), and valuation uncertainty given negative earnings and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Substantial operating and free cash flow indicates that the core care platform is increasingly converting revenue into internally generated funding. This improves capacity to invest in centers, technology and growth while reducing reliance on external capital over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Litigation-driven GAAP loss
The litigation-related increase in corporate overhead materially widened the GAAP loss despite stronger operating performance. Until this burden normalizes, reported profitability and earnings quality remain vulnerable, limiting the company’s ability to demonstrate a fully established and durable profit profile.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Substantial operating and free cash flow indicates that the core care platform is increasingly converting revenue into internally generated funding. This improves capacity to invest in centers, technology and growth while reducing reliance on external capital over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
InnovAge Holding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Capitation Revenue Breakdown
Analyzes revenue generated from capitation agreements, highlighting the company's ability to manage costs effectively while providing care. This metric indicates financial stability and efficiency in delivering healthcare services under fixed payment models.
Analyzes revenue generated from capitation agreements, highlighting the company's ability to manage costs effectively while providing care. This metric indicates financial stability and efficiency in delivering healthcare services under fixed payment models.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyInnovAge Holding (INNV) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.46B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)205.68K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth14.13%
EPS Growth62.92%
CountryUS
Employees2,440
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryMedical - Care Facilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.16
Shares Outstanding135,736,390
10 Day Avg. Volume176,253
30 Day Avg. Volume205,682
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.45
Price to Book (P/B)2.13
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio18.78
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.00Price Target Upside28.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.04B
InnovAge Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
InnovAge Holding Corp. manages and provides a range of medical and ancillary services for seniors in need of care and support to live independently in its homes and communities. It manages its business through Program of All-Inclusive Care for the...
How the Company Makes Money
InnovAge primarily makes money by operating PACE programs and receiving capitated payments to cover the full spectrum of care for enrolled participants. Under the PACE model, InnovAge contracts with government payors—principally Medicare and Medic...
InnovAge Holding Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed meaningful operational and financial momentum: strong revenue growth, material margin expansion, improved adjusted EBITDA, positive operating cash flow, raised FY2026 guidance and active reinvestment in clinical/technology capabilities. Key risks include a wider GAAP net loss driven by litigation-related corporate G&A increases, wage and care cost inflation, ongoing de novo costs, and early signs of Medicaid rate pressure for FY2027 (with modest Medicare rate growth). On balance, the company emphasized durable improvements, disciplined execution and readiness to manage near-term rate headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $251.9M in Q3 FY2026, up 15.5% YoY from $218.1M and up 5.1% QoQ, driven by higher capitation rates and member month growth.
Negative Updates
Widening GAAP Net Loss
Net loss of $29.9M in Q3 FY2026 versus a net loss of $11.1M in Q3 FY2025; loss per share of $0.22 on a fully diluted share base of ~135.7M.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth
Total revenue of $251.9M in Q3 FY2026, up 15.5% YoY from $218.1M and up 5.1% QoQ, driven by higher capitation rates and member month growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
InnovAge raised its fiscal 2026 guidance to revenue of $950–$975 million and adjusted EBITDA of $85–$90 million, and expects ending census of 7,900–8,100 participants, member months of 92,900–95,700 and de novo losses of $11.5–$13.5 million for the year. Management pointed to Q3 results driving the update: Q3 revenue $251.9M, center‑level contribution margin $61M (24.2% of revenue), adjusted EBITDA $30.5M (12.1% margin), member months 24,060 and ~8,050 participants across 20 centers, with Q3 de novo losses $1.8M. Key balance‑sheet and cash metrics cited were $95.5M cash, $43.1M short‑term investments, $69.4M total debt, $18.1M operating cash flow and $3.6M capex; Q3 net loss was $29.9M (‑$0.22 per share on ~135.7M diluted shares). Management also flagged FY27 assumptions of roughly +1.5–2% Medicare rate growth and early signs of increased Medicaid budget pressure, with more detail to come in September.InnovAge Holding Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 989.71M | 853.70M | 763.86M | 688.09M | 698.64M | 637.80M |
| Gross Profit | 206.62M | 584.79M | 132.06M | 101.29M | 135.37M | 161.79M |
| EBITDA | 83.88M | 3.36M | 1.15M | -33.85M | 9.21M | -5.89M |
| Net Income | -2.54M | -30.31M | -21.34M | -40.67M | -6.52M | -43.99M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 557.39M | 557.23M | 579.84M | 547.66M | 562.87M | 538.61M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 141.33M | 105.92M | 102.79M | 102.78M | 184.45M | 203.70M |
| Total Debt | 41.43M | 101.08M | 113.03M | 113.03M | 84.81M | 82.63M |
| Total Liabilities | 288.62M | 294.32M | 280.03M | 247.85M | 209.13M | 180.65M |
| Stockholders Equity | 238.76M | 234.97M | 269.26M | 269.26M | 332.36M | 334.56M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 72.36M | 26.60M | -44.81M | -44.81M | -10.94M | -25.09M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 85.50M | 32.87M | -36.90M | -36.90M | 27.30M | -7.55M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -12.34M | -5.55M | -26.37M | -26.37M | -40.24M | -19.54M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -18.53M | -19.08M | -7.03M | -7.03M | -6.32M | 116.22M |
InnovAge Holding Technical Analysis
Neutral
10.92
Price Trends
11.21
Negative
9.64
Positive
8.28
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
41.73
Neutral
28.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For INNV, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.78, below the 50-day MA of 11.21, and above the 200-day MA of 8.28, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for INNV.
InnovAge Holding Risk Analysis
InnovAge Holding disclosed 55 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. InnovAge Holding reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
Our business, results of operations, and financial condition are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties. You should carefully consider the following risk factors before making a decision to invest in our common stock. The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only ones we face. Additional risks and uncertainties that we are unaware of, or that we currently believe are not material, may also become important factors that affect us. If any of the following risks occur, our business, financial condition, operating results and prospects could be materially and adversely affected. You should read these risk factors in conjunction with "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in Item 7 and our consolidated financial statements and related notes in Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Q2, 2023
2.
Our operating results may fluctuate significantly in the future, which makes our future operating results difficult to predict and could cause such results to fall below any guidance we provide. Q2, 2023
3.
Our growth strategy may not prove viable, and we may not realize expected results therefrom. Q2, 2023
InnovAge Holding Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | $1.46B | -526.00 | -1.05% | ― | 14.13% | 62.92% | |
62 Neutral | $1.33B | 41.82 | 9.51% | ― | 37.90% | 15.84% | |
57 Neutral | $1.31B | 12.49 | 15.31% | 4.95% | 23.99% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $1.81B | -5.56 | -26.06% | ― | 49.37% | -171.65% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
49 Neutral | $2.81B | -20.88 | 405.63% | ― | -4.42% | 44.67% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
INNV
InnovAge Holding
10.52
6.25
146.37%
AMN
AMN Healthcare Services
33.73
12.90
61.93%
BKD
Brookdale Senior Living
12.09
4.47
58.66%
SNDA
Sonida Senior Living
39.06
13.23
51.22%
PNTG
Pennant Group
39.31
14.48
58.32%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.