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Harmony Gold Mining
(NYSE:HMY)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$19.50
▼(-15.03% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/02/26
The score is supported by strong financial fundamentals (profitability, low leverage, solid cash generation) and a cheap valuation (low P/E). This is partially offset by weak technical positioning (below key moving averages with negative MACD and sub-50 RSI). Earnings-call commentary is constructive with upgraded guidance, adding support but not enough to overcome the current technical weakness.
Positive Factors
High margins and revenue growth
Consistently high gross, EBITDA and net margins alongside double-digit revenue growth demonstrate durable operational efficiency. These margins provide structural cash flow resilience through commodity cycles, supporting reinvestment in mines, sustaining capital and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Fatal safety incidents
Multiple recent fatalities highlight ongoing safety risks at deep-level operations, inviting sustained regulatory scrutiny and potential operational restrictions. Such incidents can lead to longer-term costs from tighter controls, production interruptions and reputational pressure affecting stakeholder and community relations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins and revenue growth
Consistently high gross, EBITDA and net margins alongside double-digit revenue growth demonstrate durable operational efficiency. These margins provide structural cash flow resilience through commodity cycles, supporting reinvestment in mines, sustaining capital and shareholder returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.34B
Dividend Yield1.74%
Average Volume (3M)3.52M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.8
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth31.10%
EPS Growth57.19%
CountryUS
Employees34,350
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)25.38
Shares Outstanding636,798,950
10 Day Avg. Volume2,889,382
30 Day Avg. Volume3,522,992
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)3.22
Price to Sales (P/S)2.10
P/FCF Ratio14.38
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$7.53B
Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of mineral properties in South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The company explores for gold, uranium, silver, and copper deposits. It has nine und...
How the Company Makes Money
Harmony primarily makes money by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated when mined ore is processed into gold doré (or refined gold via third parties) and sold, with sales typically priced using prevailing market gold prices (often with ...
Harmony Gold Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive financial and operational performance with record revenue, substantial free cash flow growth, higher earnings per share, robust shareholder returns and meaningful increases in copper resources and reserves. Operationally, management met gold production and cost guidance and reported encouraging CSA integration and exploration results. However, notable cautions include roughly ZAR 10 billion of one-off cash impacts that weighed on consensus cash flow, remaining contingent liabilities (~ZAR 2.1 billion), operational constraints at CSA that require further work (ventilation) and regulatory uncertainty at Eva Copper; a portion of the portfolio upside is described as conceptual. Overall the positive financial and resource/operational momentum materially outweighs the identified execution and contingent risks.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Earnings
Revenue increased 34% year-on-year to ZAR 100 billion (USD 5.9 billion). Headline earnings per share rose 87% to ZAR 43.63 per share.
Negative Updates
Significant One-off Cash Flow Impacts
Reported one-off cash flow impacts of around ZAR 10 billion (including CSA-related costs, contingent payments, acquisition integration and hedging adjustments) contributed to cash flow falling below some consensus expectations.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Earnings
Revenue increased 34% year-on-year to ZAR 100 billion (USD 5.9 billion). Headline earnings per share rose 87% to ZAR 43.63 per share.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the FY2026 results call Harmony said it met guidance across key operating metrics: group gold production of 1.43 Moz, underground recovered gold grade of 5.83 g/t and all‑in sustaining cost of ZAR 1.19m/kg (USD 2,195/oz) were all in line with guidance, while CSA contributed 18,207 t of copper at a recovered grade of 3.75% and a C1 cash cost of USD 2.47/lb; management signalled a pathway to 40,000 tpa copper and reported record development of 560 m in June and 12,000 m drilled in Q4 (with intercepts up to 12% Cu). Financially, revenue rose 34% to ZAR 100bn (USD 5.9bn), headline EPS rose 87% to ZAR 43.63/share, adjusted free cash flow grew 54% to ZAR 17bn (USD 1bn), and a record final dividend of ZAR 4.8bn (ZAR 7.50/share) took full‑year dividends to ZAR 8.2bn (ZAR 12.80/share, ~3.5% yield). On resources and reserves, gold MREs were steady at ~107 Moz, gold reserves rose to 27.4 Moz, copper MREs increased 18.5% to 7.4 Mt and copper reserves rose 71% to 4.0 Mt (including Eva and CSA), while management highlighted ~350,000 oz of conceptual “blue‑sky” upside (150k mine‑life extension, 100k tailings, ~100k other optimisations), maintained Eva Copper first‑copper and CapEx guidance for 2028, and noted remaining contingent liabilities of ~ZAR 2.1bn (Mponeng ZAR 433m, Eva ZAR 540m, Glencore NSR ~ZAR 1.1bn).Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 83.32B | 73.90B | 61.38B | 49.27B | 42.65B | 41.73B |
| Gross Profit | 35.25B | 29.30B | 14.15B | 9.74B | 718.00M | 6.08B |
| EBITDA | 36.13B | 26.27B | 16.52B | 11.05B | 3.34B | 10.92B |
| Net Income | 15.81B | 14.38B | 8.59B | 4.82B | -1.05B | 5.09B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 114.52B | 77.50B | 60.46B | 57.24B | 46.81B | 49.50B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 7.67B | 13.10B | 4.73B | 2.87B | 2.45B | 2.82B |
| Total Debt | 12.88B | 2.23B | 2.29B | 6.22B | 3.65B | 3.36B |
| Total Liabilities | 62.36B | 28.99B | 19.51B | 22.36B | 16.69B | 17.82B |
| Stockholders Equity | 51.83B | 48.23B | 40.77B | 34.76B | 30.04B | 31.63B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10.87B | 10.79B | 7.25B | 2.31B | 710.00M | 4.04B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 25.66B | 22.65B | 15.65B | 9.95B | 6.92B | 9.18B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -32.18B | -11.96B | -8.37B | -10.60B | -6.20B | -8.46B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 4.89B | -2.21B | -5.43B | 1.19B | -1.15B | -4.30B |
Harmony Gold Mining Risk Analysis
Harmony Gold Mining disclosed 21 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Harmony Gold Mining reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
86 Outperform | $14.05B | 41.40 | 12.98% | 0.09% | 51.13% | 399.24% | |
81 Outperform | $22.19B | 17.02 | 12.49% | 0.13% | 116.79% | 211.59% | |
78 Outperform | $2.65B | 9.77 | 36.20% | 2.51% | 52.87% | 104.06% | |
76 Outperform | $22.69B | 29.02 | 11.55% | 0.93% | 93.51% | 34.48% | |
73 Outperform | $14.34B | 13.84 | 32.51% | 2.46% | 31.10% | 57.19% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
52 Neutral | $8.83B | -26.72 | -12.94% | 3.72% | 19.11% | 27.86% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HMY
Harmony Gold Mining
22.43
10.06
81.33%
CDE
Coeur Mining
21.44
8.90
70.90%
DRD
Drdgold
29.99
12.41
70.59%
HL
Hecla Mining Company
20.70
12.64
156.73%
RGLD
Royal Gold
266.14
91.62
52.50%
SBSW
Sibanye Stillwater
12.09
4.98
70.16%
Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events
Harmony Gold cuts funding costs and adds AUD debt in oversubscribed multi-currency loan deal
Jul 28, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced it had secured new oversubscribed syndicated multi-tranche, multi-currency loan facilities totaling US$500 million, A$500 million and R7 billion. The package, which includes U.S. doll...
Harmony Gold Mining Reports Fatal Incident at TauTona Shaft
Jul 20, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported a fatal incident at its TauTona service shaft near Carletonville, where a female employee lost her life on Sunday, 19 July 2026. The event underscored ongoing safety risks in deep-level mining and drew immediate attent...
Harmony Gold Delivers FY26 Production Guidance and R4.4bn Shareholder Payout
Jun 30, 2026
Harmony met its guided gold production for the eleventh consecutive year in the financial year ended 30 June 2026, delivering between 1.4 million and 1.5 million ounces at underground grades of about 5.80g/t, with all-in sustaining costs within gu...
Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Seismic Accident at Moab Khotsong Mine
Jun 22, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported a fatal accident at its Moab Khotsong mine near Orkney, where an employee died in a seismicity-related fall-of-ground incident on the morning of Friday, 19 June 2026. The company said management is supporting the decea...
Harmony Gold Discloses Executive Director’s Share Sale on 28 May 2026
May 29, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining disclosed that executive director H.E. Mashego conducted an on‑market sale of 3,000 Harmony ordinary shares on 28 May 2026, classified as a direct beneficial interest. The shares were sold at a volume‑weighted avera...
Harmony Gold Reports Fatal Shaft Incident at Mponeng Mine
May 26, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining reported that two employees died in a shaft engineering-related incident at its Mponeng mine near Carletonville on the morning of 24 May 2026. The company said it is supporting the affected families and employees, and all relev...
Harmony Gold swings to net cash as strong Q3 underpins FY26 guidance
May 18, 2026
Harmony Gold Mining Company reported a solid operating performance for the nine months to 31 March 2026, highlighted by a strong third quarter from assets including Mponeng, Hidden Valley and Tshepong North, and its 11th consecutive year on track ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.