Harmony Gold Mining (HMY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.59B
• Dividend Yield: 0.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.44M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 29.08%
• EPS Growth: 70.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 34,715
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.57
• Shares Outstanding: 636,798,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,937,129
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,444,166
• PEG Ratio: 0.16
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.38
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.11
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 0.28
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.31
• 1Y Price Target: $16.00
• Price Target Upside: -11.99% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: $16.00 ▼(-11.99% Downside)

Harmony Gold Mining's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the most significant factors driving the score. The company's robust growth, profitability, and strategic initiatives in copper enhance its future prospects. Technical indicators suggest caution due to potential overbought conditions, and valuation metrics are reasonable but not overly compelling.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective operational strategies, supporting long-term business expansion.

Strategic Copper Expansion

The acquisition of MAC Copper enhances portfolio diversification and aligns with global energy transition trends, supporting future growth.

Strong Cash Flow Generation

Robust cash flow generation strengthens financial stability, enabling reinvestment in growth initiatives and shareholder returns.

Negative Factors

Increased Production Costs

Rising production costs can pressure margins, reducing profitability and potentially impacting long-term financial performance.

Safety Challenges

Ongoing safety issues can lead to operational disruptions and increased costs, affecting productivity and company reputation.

Potential Production Gap

Anticipated production gaps could impact revenue and market position, necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain growth.

Harmony Gold Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited engages in the exploration, extraction, and processing of gold. It also explores for uranium, silver, copper, and molybdenum deposits. The company has nine underground operations in the Witwatersrand Basin; an open-pit mine on the Kraaipan Greenstone Belt; and various surface treatment operations in South Africa. It also owns interests in the Hidden Valley, an open-pit gold and silver mine; and Wafi-Golpu, a project in Morobe Province in Papua New Guinea. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Randfontein, South Africa.

How the Company Makes Money

Harmony Gold Mining generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold produced from its mining operations. The company's revenue model is centered on extracting gold from its mines, which is then sold at prevailing market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bullion, which constitutes the majority of its income, as well as the sale of by-products such as copper and silver. Additionally, Harmony may generate revenue through strategic partnerships, joint ventures, and investments in mining projects that enhance its operational capacity. Fluctuations in gold prices and demand in the global market significantly impact the company’s earnings, along with its operational efficiency and cost management.

Harmony Gold Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Harmony Gold Mining showcases a solid financial performance with strong revenue growth and profitability metrics. The company has maintained a healthy balance sheet with low leverage, and its cash flow generation capabilities are robust, supporting future growth and stability.

Income Statement

Harmony Gold Mining has shown impressive revenue growth with a notable increase from 49.28 billion to 61.38 billion over the last year, marking a revenue growth rate of approximately 24.53%. The company also improved its profitability significantly with a net profit margin rising to 13.99% from 9.78% the previous year. Gross profit margin stands at 23.06%, indicating efficient cost management. Stability in EBIT and EBITDA margins at 19.02% and 28.04% respectively, further supports robust operational performance.

Balance Sheet

Harmony Gold's balance sheet shows strength in equity with a substantial increase to 40.77 billion, improving the equity ratio to 67.46%. The debt-to-equity ratio is low at 0.056, indicating minimal leverage risk. However, there is a potential risk with a debt level that could increase in future expansions. ROE improved to 21.06%, highlighting effective use of equity capital.

Cash Flow

The company demonstrated strong cash flow management, with a substantial increase in free cash flow to 7.25 billion, reflecting a free cash flow growth rate of 214.24%. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is high at 1.82, indicating efficient conversion of income into cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly lower at 0.84, suggesting room for improvement in free cash efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2023	Dec 2023
Income Statement
Total Revenue	73.90B	73.90B	61.38B	49.27B	49.27B	49.27B
Gross Profit	29.30B	29.30B	14.15B	9.74B	9.74B	9.74B
EBITDA	26.27B	26.27B	16.52B	11.05B	11.05B	11.05B
Net Income	14.38B	14.38B	8.59B	4.82B	4.82B	4.82B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	77.50B	77.50B	60.46B	57.24B	57.24B	57.24B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	13.10B	13.10B	4.73B	2.87B	2.87B	2.87B
Total Debt	2.23B	2.23B	2.29B	6.22B	6.22B	6.22B
Total Liabilities	28.99B	28.99B	19.51B	22.36B	22.36B	22.36B
Stockholders Equity	48.23B	48.23B	40.77B	34.76B	34.76B	34.76B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	10.79B	10.79B	7.25B	2.31B	2.31B	2.31B
Operating Cash Flow	22.65B	22.65B	15.65B	9.95B	9.95B	9.95B
Investing Cash Flow	-11.96B	-11.96B	-8.37B	-10.60B	-10.60B	-10.60B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.21B	-2.21B	-5.43B	1.19B	1.19B	1.19B

Harmony Gold Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 18.18
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HMY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.57, above the 50-day MA of 15.54, and above the 200-day MA of 13.57, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HMY.

Harmony Gold Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CDE	79 Outperform	$12.04B	48.03	9.88%	―	68.88%	―
HMY	78 Outperform	$11.59B	14.28	32.05%	0.95%	29.08%	70.63%
RGLD	78 Outperform	$13.19B	29.33	14.32%	0.90%	30.15%	86.71%
HL	70 Outperform	$7.97B	76.04	4.67%	0.21%	36.30%	―
DRD	68 Neutral	$2.46B	19.99	28.11%	1.37%	30.05%	73.23%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
SBSW	56 Neutral	$8.04B	―	-8.31%	―	6.27%	93.14%

Harmony Gold Mining Corporate Events

Harmony Gold Announces Vesting of Deferred Shares for Executives

On September 25, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced the vesting and settlement of deferred share awards for its directors and prescribed officers under the Harmony Deferred Share Plan 2018. The transactions, which took place on September 18 and 22, 2025, involved the sale of vested ordinary shares by key executives, including the Group CEO, Financial Director, and other senior officers. These transactions reflect the company’s ongoing efforts to align executive compensation with shareholder interests and market performance.

Harmony Gold Mining Secures Acquisition of MAC Copper

On September 1, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining announced that MAC Copper Limited’s shareholders approved the sale of 100% of its issued share capital to Harmony Gold (Australia) Pty Ltd. This acquisition, pending final conditions, will add the high-grade CSA Copper mine in Australia to Harmony’s portfolio, enhancing cash flow resilience and supporting global decarbonisation trends.

Harmony Gold Reports Strong FY25 Results Amid Strategic Copper Expansion

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported its financial results for the year ended June 30, 2025, highlighting record cash flows, strong margins, and strategic expansion into copper. Despite a 5% decrease in gold production due to safety-related stoppages and adverse weather, the company achieved a 20% increase in revenue, driven by higher gold prices and improved grades at its South African operations. The company declared a record dividend payout and increased its net cash position significantly. Harmony’s strategic focus on copper as a key component of its growth strategy aligns with global energy transition trends, enhancing its portfolio and long-term growth outlook.

Harmony Gold Reports Strong FY25 Results with Record Cash Flows

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported its financial results for the year ended June 30, 2025, highlighting a strong performance with record free cash flows and a 26% increase in headline earnings per share. Despite a 5% decrease in total gold production, the company achieved a 27% increase in the average gold price received and a 31% increase in the Eva Copper Mineral Resource. The company declared a final dividend of 155 SA cents per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns. Harmony’s strategic focus on high-margin gold and copper operations, coupled with a disciplined approach to safety and sustainability, underscores its robust financial health and future growth prospects.

Harmony Gold Mining Reports Strong FY25 Results with Increased Earnings

Harmony Gold Mining announced its financial results for the year ended June 30, 2025, marking its tenth consecutive year of meeting guidance. The company achieved a group production of 46,023kg of gold, driven by strong performance from its South African operations and the Hidden Valley mine. Improved underground grades and disciplined cost management contributed to maintaining all-in sustaining costs within the guided range. The company expects a significant increase in earnings per share due to higher group revenue and gold prices, despite increased production costs and taxation expenses. Harmony’s strategy focuses on enhancing margins and long-term returns by prioritizing high-margin, low-risk assets.

Harmony Gold Secures Approval for MAC Copper Acquisition

On August 19, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited announced that its subsidiary, Harmony Gold (Australia) Pty Ltd, received approval from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board for the acquisition of MAC Copper Limited. This acquisition includes the high-grade CSA Copper Mine in New South Wales, Australia, which produced approximately 41kt of copper in 2024. The approval marks a significant milestone in Harmony’s strategy to transform into a global gold and copper producer, promising substantial value for shareholders and stakeholders. The transaction is still subject to certain conditions, including shareholder approvals and court sanctioning, with the final decision expected after meetings on August 29, 2025.

Harmony Gold Appoints Frans Lombard as Independent Director

On August 14, 2025, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited appointed Frans Lombard as an independent non-executive director to its Board of Directors. With extensive experience in the metals, mining, engineering, and construction industries, Lombard is expected to enhance the board’s oversight capabilities and support the company’s commitment to sustainable value for shareholders and stakeholders.