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Hillman Solutions
(NASDAQ:HLMN)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▼(-1.48% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:09/06/26
The score is held back most by weak recent fundamentals (sharp TTM revenue decline, thin margins, and declining free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a constructive earnings-call setup with raised guidance and strong near-term cash generation, though leverage is expected to rise with the Kanebridge acquisition. Valuation is also a headwind given the high P/E and lack of dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Organic growth and new business wins
Recent growth is supported by both core performance and new customer wins, including pro-channel activity, rather than by acquisitions alone. If these wins continue scaling, they can strengthen shelf presence, broaden distribution, and support more durable revenue expansion over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Revenue contraction and thin profitability
The sharp trailing revenue contraction is concerning because Hillman operates with limited net profitability and low returns on equity. Weaker volume or pricing can therefore have an outsized effect on earnings, leaving less internal capacity to reinvest, absorb disruption, or reduce debt.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Organic growth and new business wins
Recent growth is supported by both core performance and new customer wins, including pro-channel activity, rather than by acquisitions alone. If these wins continue scaling, they can strengthen shelf presence, broaden distribution, and support more durable revenue expansion over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Hillman Solutions Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down revenue across Hillman’s operating units and channels, showing where sales and growth are concentrated. Reveals customer or channel concentration, which segments are driving growth, and whether the company’s strategy and acquisitions are shifting revenue toward higher-margin or more stable businesses.
Breaks down revenue across Hillman’s operating units and channels, showing where sales and growth are concentrated. Reveals customer or channel concentration, which segments are driving growth, and whether the company’s strategy and acquisitions are shifting revenue toward higher-margin or more stable businesses.
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The Fly
The FlyHillman Solutions (HLMN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.49B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.2
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth6.47%
EPS Growth89.75%
CountryUS
Employees3,986
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryManufacturing - Tools & Accessories
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.22
Shares Outstanding194,545,000
10 Day Avg. Volume1,137,101
30 Day Avg. Volume1,387,518
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.37
Price to Book (P/B)1.46
Price to Sales (P/S)1.16
P/FCF Ratio51.16
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside60.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.68B
Hillman Solutions Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Hillman Solutions Corp., through its subsidiaries, delivers a broad spectrum of hardware products and associated merchandising solutions throughout North America. The company's extensive offerings include essential hardware components like anchor ...
How the Company Makes Money
Hillman Solutions makes money primarily by selling hardware-related products and associated merchandising solutions to retailers. Revenue is generated through (1) product sales—supplying items such as fasteners and other hardware products to retai...
Hillman Solutions Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 10, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and strategic picture: healthy top-line growth (10% YoY), strong free cash flow, RDS margin expansion and product rollout progress, a strategic and potentially highly accretive acquisition (Kanebridge) with tax benefits and synergies, and improved full-year guidance. Offsetting items include year-over-year margin pressure, tariff and FX uncertainties, and an expected near-term increase in leverage following the Kanebridge acquisition that will temper share repurchases and require deleveraging focus. On balance, management emphasized execution, M&A momentum, and cash generation as strengths while acknowledging near-term margin and leverage headwinds.Positive Updates
Top-line Growth in Q2
Net sales of $442.3M in Q2 2026, up 10% year-over-year. Management attributed the growth to ~2 points from core performance, 4.5 points from new business wins and 3.5 points from M&A.
Negative Updates
YoY Margin Pressure
Company-wide adjusted gross margin of 47.1% was down 120 basis points year-over-year (though improved 150 bps sequentially). Adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.4%, down 130 basis points versus prior year. Adjusted EBITDA grew only 2.5% to $77.1M while revenue grew 10%, indicating margin compression year-over-year.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-line Growth in Q2
Net sales of $442.3M in Q2 2026, up 10% year-over-year. Management attributed the growth to ~2 points from core performance, 4.5 points from new business wins and 3.5 points from M&A.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Hillman raised its 2026 outlook to net sales of $1.67–$1.72 billion (midpoint $1.695B, ≈+9% y/y), increased full‑year adjusted EBITDA to about $285 million (up $5M from the prior midpoint, ≈+3.5% y/y), and reiterated free cash flow of $105–$115 million (midpoint $110M). Management attributes the midpoint bump to the expected Kanebridge close around the start of Q4, which it forecasts will add roughly $15M of 2026 net sales and ~$5M of adjusted EBITDA; Kanebridge’s trailing‑12‑month results were ~ $65M revenue and ~$30M adjusted EBITDA, and the acquisition price is $315M (post‑synergy multiple ~8.4x–8.6x) with expected ~$2M in sourcing synergies and a $40–$45M cash tax benefit. The guidance assumes continued execution of ~2 points of core growth plus new business and modest H2 volume improvement, a neutral tariff impact, and no material 2026 FCF benefit from the deal (transaction expenses flow through operating income). Quarter and balance‑sheet context supporting the guide: Q2 net sales $442.3M, Q2 adjusted EBITDA $77.1M (17.4% margin), Q2 free cash flow $70.2M, ending net debt $665M and 2.4x net debt/TTM adjusted EBITDA (management expects the deal to initially add ~1.0x leverage with an anticipated ~2.5x target by end‑2027, assuming no further M&A).Hillman Solutions Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.60B | 1.55B | 1.47B | 1.48B | 1.49B | 1.43B |
| Gross Profit | 734.13M | 615.25M | 707.90M | 647.52M | 639.78M | 566.41M |
| EBITDA | 257.00M | 254.16M | 215.83M | 182.57M | 159.90M | 139.63M |
| Net Income | 41.18M | 40.30M | 17.25M | -9.59M | -16.44M | -38.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.38B | 2.36B | 2.33B | 2.33B | 2.47B | 2.56B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 35.84M | 27.28M | 44.51M | 38.55M | 31.08M | 14.61M |
| Total Debt | 801.02M | 828.03M | 793.02M | 836.06M | 968.85M | 1.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.15B | 1.13B | 1.15B | 1.18B | 1.31B | 1.41B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.23B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.15B | 1.16B | 1.15B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 61.08M | 35.09M | 98.12M | 172.27M | 49.42M | -161.81M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 125.60M | 105.19M | 183.34M | 238.03M | 119.01M | -110.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -71.98M | -70.35M | -143.40M | -67.85M | -72.82M | -90.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -51.76M | -52.22M | -39.27M | -161.98M | -28.72M | 193.33M |
Hillman Solutions Technical Analysis
Negative
8.12
Price Trends
8.22
Negative
8.03
Negative
8.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.22
Positive
39.76
Neutral
30.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLMN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.25, below the 50-day MA of 8.22, and below the 200-day MA of 8.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLMN.
Hillman Solutions Risk Analysis
Hillman Solutions disclosed 31 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Hillman Solutions reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Hillman Solutions Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $8.53B | 33.20 | 8.13% | 1.15% | 5.45% | -16.03% | |
70 Outperform | $8.83B | 24.89 | 26.06% | 1.66% | 5.24% | 13.34% | |
69 Neutral | $14.70B | 23.86 | 6.90% | 3.42% | 0.57% | 29.85% | |
66 Neutral | $15.47B | 48.04 | 9.66% | 3.96% | 17.31% | 27.05% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $2.36B | 6.91 | 24.79% | 2.58% | 19.82% | 272.31% | |
55 Neutral | $1.49B | 35.21 | 3.36% | ― | 6.47% | 89.75% |
* Industrials Sector Average
HLMN
Hillman Solutions
7.68
-1.96
-20.33%
KMT
Kennametal
30.47
9.93
48.32%
RBC
RBC Bearings
492.23
117.35
31.30%
SWK
Stanley Black & Decker
93.81
20.23
27.49%
TKR
Timken Company
123.86
48.74
64.89%
TTC
The Toro Company
94.75
17.44
22.55%
Hillman Solutions Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Hillman Solutions Finalizes Kanebridge Acquisition to Expand Fasteners
Positive
Sep 3, 2026
Hillman Solutions Corp., a Cincinnati-based hardware products provider serving retail, professional distribution, and industrial channels, has expanded its reach by acquiring Kanebridge, a U.S. master distributor of commercial and military-grade f...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Hillman Solutions Acquires Kanebridge and Raises 2026 Outlook
Positive
Aug 4, 2026
Hillman Solutions reported strong second-quarter 2026 results, with net sales rising 9.8% year-on-year to $442.3 million and net income increasing to $21.1 million for the period ended June 27, 2026. Adjusted EBITDA edged up to $77.1 million, free...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Hillman Solutions Completes Major Debt Refinancing Transaction
Positive
Jul 22, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Hillman Solutions completed a major refinancing of its existing debt structure, closing a new $735 million senior secured Term Loan B and a $375 million asset-based revolving credit facility. The term loan proceeds were used to f...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Hillman Solutions Announces Major Debt Refinancing and Outlook
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Hillman announced it has launched a transaction to refinance its existing Term Loan B and asset-based revolving credit facility, seeking to extend maturities via a proposed $735 million senior secured Term Loan B due 2033 and a $...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.