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Herbalife
(NYSE:HLF)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(17.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/21/26
The score is held back primarily by elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high debt) despite solid recent cash generation and improving sales momentum. Technicals are moderately supportive (short-to-medium term trend and MACD positive), valuation is favorable on a low P/E, and earnings-call guidance/sentiment is constructive but tempered by FX, margin pressure, and remaining leverage targets.
Positive Factors
Sustained Sales and Volume Growth
Four consecutive quarters of reported and constant-currency sales growth, supported by 5.8% worldwide volume growth, indicate improving demand and distributor activity. This provides a durable foundation for revenue expansion and suggests recent performance is broader than a one-time pricing benefit.
Negative Factors
Aggressive Capital Structure
Persistently negative equity and sizable debt reduce financial flexibility and increase the consequences of any operating downturn. Although debt has declined from 2021 levels, the aggressive capital structure leaves less capacity for investment and makes deleveraging an important continuing requirement.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Sales and Volume Growth
Four consecutive quarters of reported and constant-currency sales growth, supported by 5.8% worldwide volume growth, indicate improving demand and distributor activity. This provides a durable foundation for revenue expansion and suggests recent performance is broader than a one-time pricing benefit.
Read all positive factors
Herbalife Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Geography
Shows the share of sales coming from each region, revealing where Herbalife depends on distributors and which countries drive growth or decline. Heavy concentration in a few markets increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and regulatory or political risk, while rising sales in new regions point to expansion opportunities. Comparing regional trends also highlights whether management’s growth strategy is gaining traction or if the business is retrenching in certain areas.
Shows the share of sales coming from each region, revealing where Herbalife depends on distributors and which countries drive growth or decline. Heavy concentration in a few markets increases exposure to local economic swings, currency moves, and regulatory or political risk, while rising sales in new regions point to expansion opportunities. Comparing regional trends also highlights whether management’s growth strategy is gaining traction or if the business is retrenching in certain areas.
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The Fly
The FlyHerbalife (HLF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.40B
Dividend Yield1.8%
Average Volume (3M)1.41M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.4
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth5.52%
EPS Growth-50.47%
CountryUS
Employees8,500
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.60
Shares Outstanding104,803,380
10 Day Avg. Volume1,555,846
30 Day Avg. Volume1,414,114
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.47
Price to Book (P/B)-2.57
Price to Sales (P/S)0.26
P/FCF Ratio5.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.62
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.81
Enterprise Value/Ebitda6.08
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$18.00Price Target Upside45.28% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)2.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.26B
Herbalife Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. is a global enterprise dedicated to providing comprehensive nutritional solutions. Its market presence extends across various international regions, including North America, Mexico, Central and South America, Europe, the M...
How the Company Makes Money
Herbalife makes money primarily by selling nutrition and personal-care products through a multi-level/direct-selling distribution model. Revenue is recognized from product sales (net of discounts, returns, and allowances) to its independent distri...
Herbalife Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive. Herbalife reported four consecutive quarters of net sales growth, strong worldwide volume growth, robust performance in India, Asia Pacific, and Latin America, improved cash generation, lower interest expense, and progress on personalized nutrition initiatives. The company also maintained full-year growth guidance and raised the constant-currency adjusted EBITDA midpoint. These positives outweighed the reported GAAP loss, lower gross margin, higher tax rate, foreign-exchange headwinds, regional declines in EMEA and China, and input-cost pressure.Positive Updates
Net Sales Growth Exceeds Guidance
Second-quarter net sales were $1.3 billion, up 5.4% year over year and at the high end of the 1.5% to 5.5% guidance range. Constant-currency net sales increased 5.8%, approximately 80 basis points above the high end of guidance. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year reported and constant-currency net sales growth.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin Decline
Second-quarter gross profit margin was 77.7%, down 30 basis points year over year. The decline reflected approximately 50 basis points from country mix, 20 basis points from higher other costs, 20 basis points from higher inventory reserves, and 10 basis points from changes related to self-manufacturing and sourcing, partially offset by 60 basis points of pricing benefits.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Sales Growth Exceeds Guidance
Second-quarter net sales were $1.3 billion, up 5.4% year over year and at the high end of the 1.5% to 5.5% guidance range. Constant-currency net sales increased 5.8%, approximately 80 basis points above the high end of guidance. This was the fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year reported and constant-currency net sales growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the third quarter, Herbalife expects foreign exchange to be a modest headwind to net sales and adjusted EBITDA, with reported net sales to increase 0.5% to 4.5% year over year including a 100 basis point currency headwind, constant currency net sales to increase 1.5% to 5.5% year over year, reported adjusted EBITDA in the range of $160 million to $180 million, constant currency adjusted EBITDA in the range of $165 million to $185 million, and capital expenditures in the range of $15 million to $25 million; for the full year, reported and constant currency net sales are expected to increase 2.5% to 5.5% year over year, reported adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $670 million to $690 million, constant currency adjusted EBITDA in the range of $690 million to $710 million, 2026 capital expenditures are expected to be $50 million to $70 million, capitalized SaaS implementation costs are expected to be $35 million to $55 million incremental to CapEx, the adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be approximately 35%, the company is still targeting a net leverage ratio below 2.0x by the end of the year, and its commitment to repay more than $600 million by the end of 28 remains a core priority.Herbalife Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.20B | 5.04B | 4.99B | 5.06B | 5.20B | 5.80B |
| Gross Profit | 3.95B | 3.81B | 3.89B | 3.87B | 4.03B | 4.56B |
| EBITDA | 527.90M | 610.70M | 509.10M | 482.20M | 679.50M | 821.50M |
| Net Income | 164.20M | 228.30M | 254.30M | 142.20M | 321.30M | 447.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.86B | 2.79B | 2.73B | 2.81B | 2.73B | 2.82B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 370.50M | 353.10M | 415.30M | 575.20M | 508.00M | 601.50M |
| Total Debt | 2.20B | 2.34B | 2.47B | 2.77B | 2.92B | 3.01B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.32B | 3.30B | 3.53B | 3.87B | 4.00B | 4.21B |
| Stockholders Equity | -474.50M | -515.10M | -801.10M | -1.06B | -1.27B | -1.39B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 425.20M | 252.90M | 163.40M | 222.50M | 196.10M | 308.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 497.60M | 333.30M | 285.40M | 357.50M | 352.50M | 460.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -83.30M | -108.70M | -84.60M | -134.80M | -156.20M | -156.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -241.80M | -295.50M | -335.30M | -148.30M | -264.70M | -728.60M |
Herbalife Technical Analysis
Positive
12.39
Price Trends
12.61
Positive
12.42
Positive
14.06
Negative
Market Momentum
0.40
Positive
53.16
Neutral
32.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.39 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.26, below the 50-day MA of 12.61, and below the 200-day MA of 14.06, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLF.
Herbalife Risk Analysis
Herbalife disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Herbalife reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Herbalife Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $1.40B | 8.37 | -32.15% | 1.80% | 5.52% | -50.47% | |
59 Neutral | $73.77M | 14.65 | 15.25% | 3.24% | -20.10% | -49.17% | |
57 Neutral | $920.87M | -4.80 | -12.33% | 3.00% | -4.48% | -250.67% | |
57 Neutral | $213.79M | 11.91 | 11.00% | 5.48% | 6.77% | 34.53% | |
56 Neutral | $1.11B | 6.68 | -35.53% | ― | 5.86% | -19.48% | |
40 Underperform | $7.59M | -0.35 | -33.23% | ― | 9.08% | -52.59% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
HLF
Herbalife
13.39
5.19
63.29%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
10.41
-9.90
-48.74%
NAII
Natural Alternatives International
1.21
-1.57
-56.47%
NATR
Nature's Sunshine Products
12.15
-1.61
-11.70%
LFVN
LifeVantage
5.86
-2.41
-29.16%
BRBR
BellRing Brands
9.55
-22.34
-70.05%
Herbalife Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Herbalife Announces Upcoming CEO Leadership Transition
Neutral
Aug 31, 2026
On August 31, 2026, Herbalife announced that Chief Executive Officer Stephan Gratziani will transition out of his role, effective October 31, 2026. The planned leadership change marks a significant governance event that could influence the company...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Herbalife Reports Q2 Growth and Updates Financial Guidance
Positive
Aug 5, 2026
In the second quarter ended June 30, 2026, Herbalife reported net sales of $1.3 billion, up 5.4% year-on-year and marking a fourth consecutive quarter of topline growth, while adjusted EBITDA of $166.6 million and adjusted EPS of $0.51 came in tow...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.