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Warrior Met Coal
(NYSE:HCC)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$114.00
▲(42.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
HCC scores as moderately attractive primarily due to strong balance sheet resilience and a notably improved operating outlook from Blue Creek (raised guidance and renewed free-cash-flow generation). The score is held back by recent multi-period negative free cash flow on the financial statements, a relatively weak/neutral technical setup (negative MACD and below key medium-term averages), and a rich valuation (P/E ~30) with a low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Blue Creek scale-up and contracted sales
Blue Creek is moving from development into a meaningful production phase, adding volume and improving cost absorption. The high contracted share provides greater sales visibility and supports a more durable operating base over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Commodity-cycle earnings volatility
Warrior remains exposed to global steel output and seaborne coking-coal prices, making profitability structurally cyclical. The sharp margin swing between 2025 and the TTM recovery shows that strong operating results can reverse when benchmark prices or steel demand weaken.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Blue Creek scale-up and contracted sales
Blue Creek is moving from development into a meaningful production phase, adding volume and improving cost absorption. The high contracted share provides greater sales visibility and supports a more durable operating base over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Warrior Met Coal Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down sales by product line, customer type, or geography so you can see what drives cash flow and profit. For a metallurgical coal producer like Warrior Met, this reveals dependence on steelmakers, the split between contract and spot sales, and which product grades or markets generate the most revenue—critical for assessing price sensitivity and growth prospects.
Breaks down sales by product line, customer type, or geography so you can see what drives cash flow and profit. For a metallurgical coal producer like Warrior Met, this reveals dependence on steelmakers, the split between contract and spot sales, and which product grades or markets generate the most revenue—critical for assessing price sensitivity and growth prospects.
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The Fly
The FlyWarrior Met Coal (HCC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$5.16B
Dividend Yield0.31%
Average Volume (3M)671.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.3
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth37.47%
EPS Growth439.91%
CountryUS
Employees1,485
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryCoal
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.16
Shares Outstanding52,802,086
10 Day Avg. Volume559,574
30 Day Avg. Volume671,750
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.05
Price to Book (P/B)2.16
Price to Sales (P/S)3.54
P/FCF Ratio-50.92
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$105.25Price Target Upside31.45% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)6.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.99B
Warrior Met Coal Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. specializes in the extraction and international distribution of coking coal, a critical raw material for steel production. The firm operates a pair of underground mines situated in Alabama. Its primary client base consists o...
How the Company Makes Money
Warrior Met Coal makes money primarily by selling metallurgical (coking) coal to steel producers and other customers, with sales largely tied to seaborne export markets as well as domestic deliveries. Revenue is generated on a per-ton basis: the c...
Warrior Met Coal Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed a strong operational and financial inflection driven by Blue Creek: record volumes, large adjusted EBITDA and net income growth, and substantial free cash flow generation. These positives were offset by meaningful near-term pricing and logistics headwinds — lower gross price realization, elevated freight/demurrage, and regional pricing disparities (notably weakened East Coast relativities) — as well as modest inflation risks and higher non-cash D&D. Management raised guidance and emphasized balance sheet strength, liquidity, and shareholder-return optionality, while cautioning that second-half performance could face pressure from index relativities and costs.Positive Updates
Record Sales and Production Volumes
Q2 sales volume of 3.7 million short tons, up 65% YoY (from 2.2 million). Q2 production of 3.3 million short tons, up 45% YoY (from 2.3 million).
Negative Updates
Decline in Gross Price Realization
Gross price realization fell to 66% in Q2 2026 from 80% in Q2 2025, driven by index relativity shifts, higher freight, and a 21% higher mix of High-Vol A tons sold.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Sales and Production Volumes
Q2 sales volume of 3.7 million short tons, up 65% YoY (from 2.2 million). Q2 production of 3.3 million short tons, up 45% YoY (from 2.3 million).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Warrior raised full‑year production/sales guidance by 0.5 million short tons, taking Blue Creek sales to 5.0 million short tons for 2026 (90% contracted) and implying company‑wide sales of roughly 13–14 million short tons; Q2 free cash flow was $103 million and year‑to‑date free cash flow is +$11 million, with total available liquidity of $453 million at quarter‑end (cash $302M, short‑term investments $10M, $141M available under the ABL). Management reiterated expectations for continued free cash flow generation and potential increased shareholder returns, guided recurring CapEx of $105–115 million for existing mines plus an additional $25–30 million for Blue Creek (total ~ $130–150M), warned of modest inflationary pressure of a few dollars per ton in H2, expects the PLV to remain above 2025’s depressed levels but below H1‑2026 highs, anticipates second‑tier indices to stay depressed (which could pressure net selling prices, profitability and FCF in H2), and said the company prefers cash of $350–400 million and total liquidity near $500 million.Warrior Met Coal Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
71
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.68B | 1.31B | 1.53B | 1.68B | 1.74B | 1.06B |
| Gross Profit | 702.98M | 111.23M | 1.48B | 601.51M | 885.81M | 334.62M |
| EBITDA | 454.02M | 254.52M | 447.35M | 696.74M | 929.82M | 377.89M |
| Net Income | 219.33M | 57.00M | 250.60M | 478.63M | 641.30M | 150.88M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.90B | 2.78B | 2.59B | 2.36B | 2.03B | 1.46B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 322.50M | 353.21M | 506.17M | 747.23M | 838.09M | 404.34M |
| Total Debt | 235.83M | 270.94M | 173.04M | 173.24M | 335.68M | 391.86M |
| Total Liabilities | 610.24M | 642.41M | 500.70M | 482.61M | 580.58M | 592.23M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.29B | 2.14B | 2.09B | 1.87B | 1.45B | 871.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.13M | -91.02M | -89.77M | 209.43M | 633.16M | 293.65M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 301.33M | 229.25M | 367.45M | 701.11M | 841.90M | 351.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -308.78M | -405.15M | -538.00M | -527.21M | -255.14M | -71.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -73.18M | -15.38M | -68.51M | -265.18M | -153.12M | -96.47M |
Warrior Met Coal Technical Analysis
Positive
80.07
Price Trends
86.31
Positive
88.58
Positive
87.14
Positive
Market Momentum
4.72
Negative
75.27
Negative
92.08
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HCC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 80.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 88.53, below the 50-day MA of 86.31, and below the 200-day MA of 87.14, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.72 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.27 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.08 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HCC.
Warrior Met Coal Risk Analysis
Warrior Met Coal disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Warrior Met Coal reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Warrior Met Coal Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $3.30B | 12.66 | 14.82% | 9.71% | -5.11% | 12.73% | |
67 Neutral | $5.16B | 25.25 | 10.02% | 0.40% | 37.47% | 439.91% | |
67 Neutral | $4.57B | 46.88 | 2.70% | 0.48% | 30.21% | -10.03% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
58 Neutral | $3.07B | -17.85 | -5.29% | 1.32% | -0.68% | -233.93% | |
52 Neutral | $2.15B | -54.16 | -2.99% | ― | -12.92% | -25.84% | |
43 Neutral | $672.17M | -10.77 | -13.54% | ― | -17.65% | -157.95% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
HCC
Warrior Met Coal
105.05
47.55
82.71%
ARLP
Alliance Resource
26.07
5.22
25.04%
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources
194.42
55.01
39.46%
METC
Ramaco Resources
12.06
-8.75
-42.05%
BTU
Peabody Energy Comm
26.85
11.03
69.67%
CNR
Core Natural Resources
93.30
24.28
35.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.