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Groupon
(NASDAQ:GRPN)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$16.00
▼(-18.07% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/17/26
GRPN scores low primarily due to weak financial performance (declining revenue, ongoing losses, and balance-sheet fragility with negative equity and meaningful debt). Technicals add further pressure as the stock trades below key moving averages with negative MACD. The earnings call provides some offset via reaffirmed full-year targets and signs of operational progress and July momentum, but the outlook remains highly execution-dependent and includes near-term cash flow headwinds.
Positive Factors
Positive Cash Generation
Recent positive operating and free cash flow shows that Groupon can convert marketplace activity into liquidity despite reported accounting losses. If sustained, this internally generated cash can support platform investment, reduce reliance on external financing, and improve resilience over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue and Persistent Losses
The combination of falling revenue and sustained operating losses indicates that Groupon’s marketplace economics are not yet producing sufficient scale or cost coverage. Continued contraction can weaken merchant and consumer engagement, limit reinvestment, and make a durable return to profitability more difficult.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Positive Cash Generation
Recent positive operating and free cash flow shows that Groupon can convert marketplace activity into liquidity despite reported accounting losses. If sustained, this internally generated cash can support platform investment, reduce reliance on external financing, and improve resilience over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Groupon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Gross Profit by Segment
Reveals which parts of the business are most profitable, highlighting strengths and potential areas for improvement in different operational areas.
Reveals which parts of the business are most profitable, highlighting strengths and potential areas for improvement in different operational areas.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGroupon (GRPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$655.52M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.36
Revenue Growth1.98%
EPS Growth-1806.09%
CountryUS
Employees1,734
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-3.10
Shares Outstanding40,665,295
10 Day Avg. Volume872,956
30 Day Avg. Volume1,052,939
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.22
Price to Book (P/B)-16.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio14.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.52
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.00
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-14.79
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.67Price Target Upside46.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$520.13M
Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Groupon, Inc., encompassing its various subsidiary entities, operates a digital platform designed to connect shoppers with businesses. The company's operational scope is geographically segmented into two primary areas: North America and its Intern...
How the Company Makes Money
Groupon primarily makes money by facilitating transactions between consumers and merchants and earning a portion of the value of each deal sold. Its core revenue model is commission-based: when a customer purchases a voucher or deal on Groupon, th...
Groupon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 06, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted meaningful operational progress driven by the Foundry AI initiative, improved organic and managed-channel performance, clear leadership additions, and positive Q2 cash flow—balanced against a modest top-line decline (-1% YoY) concentrated in North America Local, ongoing migration execution risk, and a forecasted negative free cash flow quarter in Q3. Management conveyed momentum in July (mid-single-digit growth and double-digit organic gains) and reiterated full-year targets, but noted the acceleration depends on execution of AI, marketing, and supply initiatives.Positive Updates
Q2 Profitability and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA finished at the high end of guidance for Q2 and free cash flow was positive $15 million, demonstrating near-term profitability and strong cash generation.
Negative Updates
Q2 Top-Line Decline
Billings and revenue each declined 1% year-over-year in Q2, a top-line shortfall versus expectations concentrated in North America Local.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Q2 Profitability and Cash Generation
Adjusted EBITDA finished at the high end of guidance for Q2 and free cash flow was positive $15 million, demonstrating near-term profitability and strong cash generation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management's guidance: Q3 billings growth of 4%–6% year‑over‑year, revenue of $128M–$130M, adjusted EBITDA of $19M–$21M and negative free cash flow in the quarter; reaffirmed full‑year billings growth of 3%–5%, revenue of $513M–$523M, adjusted EBITDA of $75M–$80M and free cash flow of at least $60M (implying second‑half revenue growth of roughly 6%–10%), with July accelerating to mid‑single‑digit growth — for context Q2 saw billings and revenue each down 1% YoY, adjusted EBITDA at the high end of guidance and free cash flow of +$15M.Groupon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
28
Negative
Balance Sheet
22
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 497.41M | 498.42M | 492.56M | 514.91M | 599.09M | 967.11M |
| Gross Profit | 448.86M | 443.47M | 444.31M | 450.66M | 522.82M | 737.12M |
| EBITDA | -67.18M | -12.60M | 9.04M | 23.51M | -114.93M | 178.05M |
| Net Income | -125.66M | -83.52M | -59.03M | -55.41M | -237.61M | 118.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 599.68M | 670.41M | 612.69M | 570.96M | 793.12M | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 226.25M | 296.08M | 228.84M | 141.56M | 281.28M | 498.73M |
| Total Debt | 312.30M | 349.60M | 252.93M | 278.75M | 346.76M | 414.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 671.75M | 712.80M | 571.64M | 611.27M | 784.26M | 947.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | -72.18M | -42.56M | 40.81M | -40.63M | 8.47M | 209.87M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 29.95M | 49.87M | 39.97M | -97.27M | -174.83M | -176.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 44.27M | 64.50M | 55.89M | -77.98M | -135.99M | -123.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.26M | 6.42M | -6.81M | -1.40M | -38.84M | -45.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -73.87M | -7.51M | 47.79M | -35.69M | -34.41M | -183.85M |
Groupon Technical Analysis
Negative
19.53
Price Trends
19.06
Negative
21.08
Negative
17.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.97
Positive
33.12
Neutral
9.34
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.53 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.25, above the 50-day MA of 19.06, and above the 200-day MA of 17.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.97 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 33.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.34 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GRPN.
Groupon Risk Analysis
Groupon disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Groupon reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Groupon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $77.73B | 92.46 | 8.47% | ― | 33.59% | 4.61% | |
72 Outperform | $1.08B | 9.47 | 18.61% | ― | 1.50% | -6.82% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
52 Neutral | $268.48M | -1.21 | -25.18% | ― | -8.83% | -554.39% | |
48 Neutral | $30.46M | -0.07 | 9301.18% | 1.68% | -25.24% | -83.32% | |
46 Neutral | $655.52M | -5.20 | 212.18% | ― | 1.98% | -1806.09% | |
44 Neutral | $51.73M | 121.00 | -5.29% | ― | 4.93% | -96.38% |
* General Sector Average
GRPN
Groupon
16.12
-4.73
-22.69%
ANGI
Angi
6.62
-7.48
-53.05%
TZOO
Travelzoo
5.07
-4.97
-49.50%
YELP
Yelp
19.99
-13.00
-39.41%
SEAT
Vivid Seats
2.71
-10.19
-78.99%
DASH
DoorDash
179.38
-83.97
-31.89%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.