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Groupon
(NASDAQ:GRPN)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$26.00
▲(82.97% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/27/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals—ongoing net losses and a balance sheet with negative equity—despite currently positive free cash flow. Offsetting this, technicals show strong upward momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD), though RSI suggests an overbought condition. The earnings call adds a moderately positive tilt via reaffirmed guidance and AI/product progress, but near-term execution and restructuring risks remain. Valuation provides limited support due to negative earnings and no dividend yield.
Positive Factors
High gross margin
Sustained ~89–90% gross margins indicate Groupon’s marketplace model captures large transaction spread versus cost of goods sold. This structural margin provides durable operating leverage potential: if overhead is controlled, revenue growth more readily converts to operating profits and cash generation over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative stockholders' equity
A sustained negative equity position materially weakens financial flexibility, constrains borrowing capacity, and raises solvency concerns. It reduces the firm’s buffer against operational shocks and limits strategic optionality for investments or M&A over the medium term unless equity is rebuilt.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High gross margin
Sustained ~89–90% gross margins indicate Groupon’s marketplace model captures large transaction spread versus cost of goods sold. This structural margin provides durable operating leverage potential: if overhead is controlled, revenue growth more readily converts to operating profits and cash generation over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Groupon Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, indicating where the company is thriving and where it might need to boost performance.
Shows how much revenue each business segment generates, indicating where the company is thriving and where it might need to boost performance.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyGroupon (GRPN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$971.63M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.96M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.80
Revenue Growth2.42%
EPS Growth-175.21%
CountryUS
Employees2,079
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryInternet Content & Information
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-2.55
Shares Outstanding37,983,980
10 Day Avg. Volume1,298,900
30 Day Avg. Volume1,962,522
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.22
Price to Book (P/B)-16.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.42
P/FCF Ratio14.23
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.74
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.44
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.60
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-23.04
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.33Price Target Upside85.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$520.09M
Groupon Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Groupon, Inc., encompassing its various subsidiary entities, operates a digital platform designed to connect shoppers with businesses. The company's operational scope is geographically segmented into two primary areas: North America and its Intern...
How the Company Makes Money
Groupon primarily makes money by taking a share of the value of each deal sold on its platform (i.e., a commission/marketplace take rate). When a customer purchases a voucher or offer from Groupon, Groupon collects the payment (typically at the ti...
Groupon Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced meaningful operational progress (platform rollouts, CDP activation, early AI deployments, April recovery signals, and a large remaining buyback capacity) against near-term financial and operational challenges (Q1 billings miss, adjusted EBITDA slightly below guidance with severance, softness in managed/organic channels and North America local SMB acquisition, and planned additional headcount reductions). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and articulated a clear AI-led strategic path, but several material execution risks and potential restructuring actions leave the near-term outlook uncertain.Positive Updates
Platform and Product Rollouts Completed
New iOS app fully deployed across North America; new Android app launched in North America at end of Q1 to new users; new international web platform live in all markets. Customer Data Platform (CDP) live in all major markets, enabling managed channel strategies anchored on customer lifetime value.
Negative Updates
Billings Decline and Miss vs. Expectations
Q1 global billings of $383 million declined 1% year-over-year and came in slightly below guidance, a primary headline miss for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Platform and Product Rollouts Completed
New iOS app fully deployed across North America; new Android app launched in North America at end of Q1 to new users; new international web platform live in all markets. Customer Data Platform (CDP) live in all major markets, enabling managed channel strategies anchored on customer lifetime value.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Groupon reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance calling for billings growth of 3%–5%, revenue of $513M–$523M, adjusted EBITDA of $70M–$75M and free cash flow of at least $60M; for Q2 management guided billings flat to +2%, revenue of $126M–$128M and adjusted EBITDA of $13M–$15M. For context, Q1 results were global billings of $383M (–1% YoY), revenue of $117M (flat YoY) and adjusted EBITDA of $12.8M (which included roughly $2M of severance related to ~5% headcount reduction in Q1); management is evaluating an additional ~15% headcount reduction in Q2 (not yet approved). Since March 10 the company repurchased 2.8M shares for $29.7M at a $10.58 weighted average price (≈7% of shares outstanding) and about $215M remains available under the buyback.Groupon Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 498.44M | 498.42M | 492.56M | 514.91M | 599.09M | 967.11M |
| Gross Profit | 449.89M | 443.47M | 444.31M | 450.66M | 522.82M | 737.12M |
| EBITDA | -31.14M | -12.60M | 9.04M | 23.51M | -114.93M | 178.05M |
| Net Income | -103.56M | -83.52M | -59.03M | -55.41M | -237.61M | 118.67M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 595.85M | 670.41M | 612.69M | 570.96M | 793.12M | 1.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 225.51M | 296.08M | 228.84M | 141.56M | 281.28M | 498.73M |
| Total Debt | 314.19M | 349.60M | 252.93M | 278.75M | 346.76M | 414.21M |
| Total Liabilities | 658.33M | 712.80M | 571.64M | 611.27M | 784.26M | 947.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | -62.59M | -42.56M | 40.81M | -40.63M | 8.47M | 209.87M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 40.12M | 49.87M | 39.97M | -97.27M | -174.83M | -176.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 54.56M | 64.50M | 55.89M | -77.98M | -135.99M | -123.96M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 6.60M | 6.42M | -6.81M | -1.40M | -38.84M | -45.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -62.73M | -7.51M | 47.79M | -35.69M | -34.41M | -183.85M |
Groupon Technical Analysis
Positive
14.21
Price Trends
17.88
Positive
14.99
Positive
16.72
Positive
Market Momentum
1.97
Negative
75.45
Negative
94.98
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GRPN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.08, below the 50-day MA of 17.88, and below the 200-day MA of 16.72, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.45 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.98 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GRPN.
Groupon Risk Analysis
Groupon disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Groupon reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Groupon Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $1.46B | 11.89 | 19.70% | ― | 2.09% | 4.03% | |
75 Outperform | $1.40B | 13.40 | 11.91% | ― | 9.62% | 880.15% | |
64 Neutral | $873.38M | -20.27 | -10.32% | ― | 6.78% | 52.54% | |
62 Neutral | $837.37M | 19.19 | -568.82% | ― | 15.66% | 138.39% | |
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $388.63M | 13.56 | 7.03% | ― | 5.94% | 56.89% | |
56 Neutral | $971.63M | -10.03 | 364.92% | ― | 2.42% | -175.21% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
GRPN
Groupon
25.58
-11.13
-30.32%
YELP
Yelp
26.52
-8.04
-23.26%
FVRR
Fiverr International
10.81
-17.88
-62.32%
MAX
MediaAlpha
13.43
3.28
32.32%
TBLA
Taboola.com
5.14
1.46
39.67%
NXDR
Nextdoor Holdings
2.29
0.66
40.49%
Groupon Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Groupon Shareholders Approve Governance Changes and Officer Exculpation
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 11, 2026, Groupon, Inc. held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where shareholders elected six director nominees to the board to serve until the next annual meeting, ratified Deloitte Touche LLP as the independent registered public accou...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Groupon Names New COO to Drive Marketplace Transformation
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
Groupon, the Chicago-based experiences marketplace listed on Nasdaq as GRPN, connects consumers with local experiences and services, emphasizing value and customer acquisition for merchants. Its marketplace model positions the company at the inter...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Groupon Launches Workforce Restructuring to Support AI Strategy
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 21, 2026, Groupon’s board approved an initial restructuring phase to support its AI-native strategy, planning a global workforce reduction of up to 400 positions by the end of the third quarter of 2026, subject to local legal processe...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.