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Greenfire Resources
(NYSE:GFR)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$7.00
▲(14.38% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial resilience (low leverage and positive operating cash flow) but is held back by inconsistent profitability and a recent deterioration in free cash flow. Technicals are constructive with the stock trading above major moving averages and a positive MACD, though momentum appears somewhat stretched. Valuation is a drag due to the negative P/E and lack of a dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Acquisition-driven scale and synergies
The completed acquisition creates a larger, contiguous oil sands platform with shared reservoir and pipeline characteristics. Integration may improve operating efficiency and provide approximately $30 million in annual synergies, strengthening the long-term cost structure.
Negative Factors
Large acquisition financing requirement
The acquisition introduces substantial financing execution risk and may increase debt service or shareholder dilution before the rights offering is completed. Realizing the expected benefits therefore depends on successful refinancing and disciplined integration.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Acquisition-driven scale and synergies
The completed acquisition creates a larger, contiguous oil sands platform with shared reservoir and pipeline characteristics. Integration may improve operating efficiency and provide approximately $30 million in annual synergies, strengthening the long-term cost structure.
Read all positive factors
Greenfire Resources Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Greenfire Resources (GFR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.47B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)231.56K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.28
Revenue Growth-5.91%
EPS Growth-114.75%
CountryUS
Employees197
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.54
Shares Outstanding240,408,860
10 Day Avg. Volume221,972
30 Day Avg. Volume231,555
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.16
Price to Book (P/B)0.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.78
P/FCF Ratio19.50
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.99Price Target Upside30.51% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Greenfire Resources Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Greenfire Resources Ltd., operating through its various subsidiaries, is actively involved in the exploration, development, and management of oil and gas properties. These significant holdings are located specifically within Alberta's Athabasca oi...
How the Company Makes Money
Greenfire Resources makes money primarily by producing and selling crude oil derived from in situ oil sands operations. Revenue is generated from the sale of produced barrels (typically priced off regional benchmarks and adjusted for quality and l...
Greenfire Resources Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 04, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant initiatives to reduce debt and improve financial stability through a recapitalization plan, alongside strong operational performance in hitting production targets. However, challenges with high leverage, sulfur emissions, and flat production projections for 2026 present concerns.Positive Updates
Transformational Recapitalization Plan
Greenfire announced a plan to fully repay all outstanding senior secured notes through a $300 million equity rights offering backed by Waterous Energy Fund, alongside a new $275 million revolving credit facility with Canadian banks, reducing the cost of capital by approximately half.
Negative Updates
High Leverage and Debt Concerns
Greenfire acknowledged having too much leverage due to the current oil price outlook and significant growth capital needs, leading to plans to materially outspend cash flow over the next 2 to 3 years.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Transformational Recapitalization Plan
Greenfire announced a plan to fully repay all outstanding senior secured notes through a $300 million equity rights offering backed by Waterous Energy Fund, alongside a new $275 million revolving credit facility with Canadian banks, reducing the cost of capital by approximately half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Greenfire Resources Q3 2025 conference call, key guidance was provided on several financial and operational metrics. Greenfire announced a transformational recapitalization plan, aiming to repay all outstanding senior secured notes through a $300 million equity rights offering, fully backstopped by Waterous Energy Fund. Additionally, they secured commitments for an upsized $275 million revolving credit facility, which is expected to be undrawn at closing, positioning Greenfire to be debt-free. For 2025, Greenfire reaffirmed its capital guidance target of $130 million and projected production at the top end of their guidance range, between 15,000 to 16,000 barrels per day. For 2026, the approved capital budget is $180 million, with anticipated bitumen production ranging from 15,500 to 16,500 barrels per day. The company also addressed operational challenges, such as boiler outages and sulfur emission exceedances, with plans for full compliance and capacity restoration by year-end.Greenfire Resources Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 601.85M | 603.30M | 790.95M | 675.97M | 998.85M | 270.67M |
| Gross Profit | 266.79M | 268.02M | 258.19M | 279.47M | 512.74M | 139.44M |
| EBITDA | 57.27M | 181.23M | 199.19M | -1.71M | 188.22M | 714.49M |
| Net Income | -36.93M | 47.50M | 121.41M | -135.67M | 131.70M | 661.44M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.31B | 1.29B | 1.26B | 1.17B | 1.17B | 1.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.96M | 42.02M | 67.42M | 109.53M | 35.36M | 60.87M |
| Total Debt | 32.12M | 6.11M | 338.24M | 390.07M | 255.37M | 325.57M |
| Total Liabilities | 165.16M | 118.71M | 436.04M | 478.48M | 336.49M | 424.19M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.15B | 1.17B | 821.43M | 695.00M | 837.77M | 704.89M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -53.95M | 24.25M | 57.14M | 53.12M | 125.14M | 27.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 111.23M | 134.00M | 144.55M | 86.55M | 164.73M | 31.98M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -138.38M | -98.42M | -94.41M | -12.10M | -63.75M | -336.53M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -39.04M | -57.13M | -95.43M | 2.00K | -123.64M | 365.61M |
Greenfire Resources Technical Analysis
Positive
6.12
Price Trends
5.39
Positive
5.26
Positive
4.94
Positive
Market Momentum
0.26
Positive
57.68
Neutral
47.42
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GFR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.87, above the 50-day MA of 5.39, and above the 200-day MA of 4.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GFR.
Greenfire Resources Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $1.05B | 1.75 | 40.22% | 8.77% | ― | ― | |
69 Neutral | $931.67M | 4.93 | 16.06% | ― | 75.40% | ― | |
66 Neutral | $829.44M | 6.84 | 19.88% | 4.45% | 23.16% | 21.24% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
65 Neutral | $1.47B | -15.78 | -3.45% | ― | -5.91% | -114.75% | |
61 Neutral | $659.50M | -24.00 | -4.68% | 9.63% | 14.60% | -187.70% | |
54 Neutral | $981.27M | -10.13 | -5.69% | 2.09% | -12.57% | -188.23% |
* Energy Sector Average
GFR
Greenfire Resources
6.15
2.26
58.10%
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian
38.28
10.44
37.48%
DEC
Diversified Energy Company
15.07
-0.28
-1.81%
HPK
HighPeak Energy
8.00
0.33
4.26%
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources
5.04
-0.16
-3.02%
INR
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. Class A
15.08
0.28
1.89%
Greenfire Resources Corporate Events
Greenfire Resources Closes $1.3 Billion Connacher Oil Sands Acquisition and Boosts 2026 Capital Plan
Aug 14, 2026
On August 5, 2026, Greenfire Resources completed the acquisition of all Class A common shares of Connacher Oil and Gas Limited for $1.297 billion in cash. The deal brings Connacher’s Pod One and Algar assets, collectively known as the Great ...
Greenfire Resources Moves to Acquire Connacher in $1.29 Billion Deal Backed by Major Financing and Rights Offering
Jul 22, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Greenfire Resources announced a definitive agreement to acquire all Class A common shares of Connacher Oil and Gas Limited for $1.29 billion in cash, with the offer to Connacher shareholders open from July 14 to August 4, 2026 an...
Greenfire Resources to Acquire Connacher for C$1.277 Billion, Expanding Oil Sands Footprint
Jul 13, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Greenfire Resources announced a definitive agreement to acquire private thermal oil sands producer Connacher Oil and Gas Limited for approximately C$1.277 billion in cash. Connacher’s 100%-owned Great Divide project, which ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.