Geo Group (GEO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.76B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.55M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 142.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.46
• Revenue Growth: 0.50%
• EPS Growth: -71.85%
• Country: US
• Employees: 16,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 89
• Industry: Security & Protection Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 141,342,670
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,324,989
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,548,910
• PEG Ratio: -4.65
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 21.79
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.41
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 5.15
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 2.89
• 1Y Price Target: $44.80
• Price Target Upside: 69.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

Geo Group's overall stock score reflects mixed financial performance with high leverage risks, neutral technical indicators, and overvaluation concerns. The positive outlook from strategic initiatives and debt reduction plans in the earnings call is a counterbalance but does not offset immediate challenges.

Geo Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

The GEO Group, Inc. engages in the ownership, leasing, and management of secure facilities, reentry facilities, and processing centers in the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It operates through four segments: U.S. Secure Services, Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, Reentry Services, and International Services. The company provides counseling, education, and treatment for alcohol and drug abuse problems at various facilities; and compliance technologies for monitoring services, and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants. It also offers secure facility management services, including security, administrative, rehabilitation, education, and food services at secure services facilities; reentry services comprising supervision of individuals in community-based programs and reentry centers, and provision of temporary housing, programming, employment assistance, and other services; and supervision and reporting services that improves the participation of non-detained aliens in the immigration court system. In addition, the company provides secure transportation services; and rehabilitation services, such as evidence-based, including cognitive behavioral treatment and post-release services, as well as academic and vocational classes in life skills and treatment programs under the GEO Continuum of Care platform; and develops new facilities based on contract, as well as designs, constructs, and finances the facilities. The GEO Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

The GEO Group primarily generates revenue through government contracts for the management and operation of correctional and detention facilities. These contracts are typically long-term agreements with federal, state, and local government agencies. The company also earns revenue from the provision of electronic monitoring and community-based rehabilitation services. Key revenue streams include facility management fees, per diem rates for housed individuals, and fees for monitoring and community supervision services. Significant partnerships with government entities and a focus on cost-efficient facility operations contribute to GEO Group's earnings. Additionally, the company's ability to secure new contracts and renew existing agreements is crucial to its financial performance.

Geo Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Geo Group shows mixed financial health. The income statement reveals challenges with declining revenue. The balance sheet is concerning due to high leverage, while stable operating cash flows highlight some operational resilience. Overall, the company faces significant challenges in achieving sustainable growth and financial stability.

Income Statement

Geo Group has faced fluctuating revenue over recent years, with a notable revenue decrease in the latest annual period. Gross and net profit margins have shown inconsistency, though EBIT and EBITDA margins remained relatively steady. The recent decline in revenue and profits suggests challenges in maintaining growth momentum.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risk. Stockholders' equity has been volatile, and the equity ratio shows a reliance on debt. Overall, financial stability is a concern due to high leverage.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been relatively stable, with some fluctuations. However, the free cash flow has decreased recently. The company has maintained positive operating cash flows, but free cash flow trends highlight potential liquidity challenges.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
2.42B	2.41B	2.38B	2.26B	2.35B
	Gross Profit
523.00M	668.94M	713.00M	627.57M	571.77M
	EBIT
309.98M	352.39M	383.10M	288.08M	222.57M
	EBITDA
355.44M	482.12M	516.87M	423.26M	385.23M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
31.97M	107.33M	171.81M	77.42M	113.03M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
76.90M	93.97M	95.07M	506.49M	283.52M
	Total Assets
3.63B	3.70B	3.76B	4.54B	4.46B
	Total Debt
1.81B	1.89B	2.08B	3.06B	3.05B
	Net Debt
1.73B	1.79B	1.98B	2.56B	2.76B
	Total Liabilities
2.30B	2.41B	2.60B	3.56B	3.55B
	Stockholders Equity
1.33B	1.29B	1.17B	975.02M	912.08M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
163.54M	211.93M	206.39M	213.24M	332.93M
	Operating Cash Flow
242.24M	284.93M	296.41M	282.63M	441.73M
	Investing Cash Flow
-101.72M	-60.57M	2.96M	-53.74M	-104.17M
	Financing Cash Flow
-168.89M	-208.08M	-699.10M	11.26M	-96.74M

Geo Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 26.40
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GEO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 26.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 29.03, below the 50-day MA of 28.18, and above the 200-day MA of 23.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.71 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GEO.

Geo Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	80 Outperform	$977.34M	22.32	27.48%	1.72%	-1.05%	-2.78%
REZI	76 Outperform	$3.19B	53.83	2.58%	―	14.02%	-69.91%
ARLO	75 Outperform	$1.42B	―	-21.34%	―	0.27%	-18.75%
ADT	72 Outperform	$7.15B	14.63	16.26%	2.57%	-5.44%	-16.05%
BCO	68 Neutral	$3.77B	24.11	54.50%	1.08%	1.97%	41.88%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$4.40B	12.09	5.26%	250.03%	4.08%	-11.05%
GEO	52 Neutral	$3.76B	142.16	2.12%	―	0.50%	-71.85%

Geo Group Corporate Events

Geo Group Highlights Strategic Focus at Investor Day

On March 20, 2025, The GEO Group, Inc. hosted an Investor Day event, highlighting its strategic focus on reducing net debt, exploring options to return capital to shareholders, and investing in expanded service capabilities. The company anticipates unprecedented growth in 2025, driven by opportunities in detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring services, which could significantly impact its financial results and stakeholder interests.