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GDS Holdings
(NASDAQ:GDS)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$38.00
▲(15.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
The score is driven mainly by improved operational momentum and visibility from the earnings call (raised sales guidance, expanding backlog) and strong TTM profitability, offset by persistent negative free cash flow and leverage/capital intensity. Technicals add modest support with a near-term uptrend, while valuation appears reasonable based on the provided P/E and no dividend data.
Positive Factors
Demand Visibility and Backlog
Growing backlog and substantial contracted capacity provide multi-period revenue visibility. Historically high reservation conversion and strong bookings support future utilization, customer additions and recurring colocation revenue beyond the current reporting period.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Free Cash Flow
Positive operating cash flow has not covered capital spending, leaving GDS dependent on financing or asset monetization to fund growth. Persistent cash deficits can constrain flexibility and reduce the durability of reported earnings if investment needs remain elevated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Demand Visibility and Backlog
Growing backlog and substantial contracted capacity provide multi-period revenue visibility. Historically high reservation conversion and strong bookings support future utilization, customer additions and recurring colocation revenue beyond the current reporting period.
Read all positive factors
GDS Holdings (GDS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.48B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.8
Beta (1Y)1.15
Revenue Growth12.29%
EPS Growth2348.25%
CountryUS
Employees2,434
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)18.80
Shares Outstanding194,928,820
10 Day Avg. Volume1,485,162
30 Day Avg. Volume2,026,026
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.25
Price to Book (P/B)1.73
Price to Sales (P/S)4.06
P/FCF Ratio-34.93
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$48.67Price Target Upside47.52% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)5.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$12.75B
GDS Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GDS Holdings Limited, operating with its subsidiaries, specializes in the development and management of data center facilities across the People's Republic of China. The company offers a wide range of services, including colocation—providing cruci...
How the Company Makes Money
GDS primarily makes money by selling data center services under customer contracts, with revenue largely driven by recurring fees for colocation capacity and related infrastructure services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Colocation services—cus...
GDS Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys strong demand momentum, a materially upgraded bookings target, expanding backlog and visible booked EBITDA, supported by solid liquidity and active financing. These positive operational and financial developments are tempered by near-term margin pressure (MSR decline), higher CapEx needs, elevated project-level leverage, GPU supply timing risk, and uncertainty around the timing of asset monetization. Overall, the positives—particularly the large uplift in bookings, backlog growth, and clear revenue/EBITDA visibility—outweigh the negatives.Positive Updates
Strong Sales Momentum and Raised Sales Target
Booked 260 MW of new bookings in Q2 and 470 MW in H1 2026; management raised the full-year sales target to 1.0 GW (up from ~500 MW prior guidance), representing a ~100% increase in the target and signaling materially stronger demand.
Negative Updates
MRR / Yield Pressure and Near-Term MSR Decline
Company expects MSR (monthly service revenue) to be down ~3% in 4Q'26 vs 4Q'25 and possibly down a similar amount next year; reasons include a shift in location mix toward new markets with lower pricing and remaining transition of legacy contracts (~18 months) to current market pricing.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Sales Momentum and Raised Sales Target
Booked 260 MW of new bookings in Q2 and 470 MW in H1 2026; management raised the full-year sales target to 1.0 GW (up from ~500 MW prior guidance), representing a ~100% increase in the target and signaling materially stronger demand.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company raised full‑year sales guidance to 1.0 GW after Q2 bookings of 260 MW and a record H1 total of 470 MW, and reported at-midyear binding commitments of over 2.0 GW plus 600 MW of reservations (customers have historically exercised reservations at ~100%), with developable uncommitted capacity of ~3.0 GW; backlog grew from 450 MW at the start of the year to 757 MW at midyear, and the backlog implies ~RMB 2.2 million of adjusted EBITDA per MW (booked‑but‑not‑billed adjusted EBITDA ~RMB 1.6 billion). Net move‑ins were 145 MW in H1 with a forecasted additional 90 MW in H2 (235 MW for 2026) and move‑ins expected to more than double in 2027, weighted to 2H27; unit CapEx for new builds is ~RMB 20 million/MW and CapEx paid guidance was raised from RMB 9 billion to RMB 10 billion (mostly in 2H), financed roughly 60% debt / 40% equity at project level. Management expects stabilized cash yields of 10–11% (implying ~5.5–6.0x project leverage), completed RMB 4.9 billion of onshore debt in 2Q, holds nearly RMB 20 billion cash, has net debt / LQA adjusted EBITDA of 4.7x, and noted H1 pro forma adjusted EBITDA grew 12.7% (implied full‑year pro forma growth at the midpoint ~6.5%); guidance excludes any further asset‑monetization proceeds currently under regulatory review.GDS Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
41
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 12.26B | 11.43B | 10.32B | 9.96B | 9.33B | 7.82B |
| Gross Profit | 2.98B | 2.59B | 2.22B | 1.92B | 1.94B | 1.78B |
| EBITDA | 5.62B | 6.07B | 1.31B | 1.36B | 898.00M | 705.99M |
| Net Income | 3.74B | 949.64M | 3.30B | -4.29B | -1.27B | -1.19B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 85.82B | 80.05B | 73.65B | 74.45B | 74.81B | 71.63B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 14.93B | 14.97B | 7.87B | 7.71B | 8.61B | 9.97B |
| Total Debt | 47.39B | 47.55B | 44.46B | 47.99B | 44.68B | 37.79B |
| Total Liabilities | 52.56B | 52.29B | 49.98B | 54.32B | 50.63B | 47.10B |
| Stockholders Equity | 32.35B | 26.86B | 23.54B | 19.96B | 24.07B | 24.47B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -859.47M | -1.33B | -1.23M | -4.19B | -4.95B | -8.68B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.57B | 3.37B | 1.94M | 2.07B | 2.86B | 1.20B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -4.69B | -3.04B | -8.76M | -6.33B | -11.27B | -13.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.89B | 6.11B | 17.06M | 3.14B | 4.86B | 8.12B |
GDS Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
32.99
Price Trends
32.12
Positive
36.07
Negative
37.76
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Positive
48.79
Neutral
25.78
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GDS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 32.99 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.93, above the 50-day MA of 32.12, and below the 200-day MA of 37.76, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.78 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for GDS.
GDS Holdings Risk Analysis
GDS Holdings disclosed 119 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GDS Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
If GDSH's beneficial ownership in GDSI falls below 50% or cease to have the ability to appoint the majority of the board of directors of GDSI or otherwise ceases to have the control over the management and policies of GDSI, a change of control would be triggered under certain of GDSI's real property leases, customer agreements and/or loan agreements, and the business development, financial condition and future prospects of GDSH and/or GDSI may be materially and adversely affected. Q4, 2023
2.
Our customer agreement commitments are subject to reduction, potential cancellation and non-renewal upon expiry; if renewed, the renewal may be at lower pricing terms or for a lower commitment of utilization. Q4, 2023
GDS Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $6.69B | 15.85 | 10.23% | 1.10% | 11.54% | 61.84% | |
64 Neutral | $6.48B | 11.81 | 12.75% | ― | 12.29% | 2348.25% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
54 Neutral | $2.84B | 8.54 | 29.15% | ― | -0.62% | -70.92% | |
46 Neutral | $8.41B | -30.19 | -16.65% | ― | 167.37% | 18.89% | |
46 Neutral | $2.17B | -4.48 | -89.64% | ― | -23.03% | -337.49% | |
45 Neutral | $1.96B | -5.10 | -47.06% | ― | 22.57% | -3928.75% |
* Technology Sector Average
GDS
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GDS Holdings Corporate Events
GDS Holdings Swings to Profit on Q2 2026 Revenue Growth and AI-Driven Data Center Demand
Aug 13, 2026
GDS Holdings Limited, a major Chinese data center developer and operator, reported unaudited results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, highlighting continued expansion in committed and utilized floor space and a utilization rate that rose to 79...
GDS Holdings Earns MSCI AAA as 2025 Sustainability Push Cuts Carbon Intensity
Jul 28, 2026
GDS Holdings Limited, a major Chinese data center operator, has released its 2025 Sustainability Report dated July 28, 2026, highlighting significant gains in renewable energy use and efficiency. The company increased its renewable energy usage ra...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.