Gcm Grosvenor Inc. (GCMG)
NASDAQ:GCMG
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GCM Grosvenor
(NASDAQ:GCMG)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$12.50
â–²(14.26% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:06/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong cash generation and a constructive earnings-call outlook pointing to continued AUM/fee-paying AUM growth and revenue momentum. Technicals add support with price above key moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is helped by a moderate P/E and ~4% dividend yield. The main constraint on the score is balance-sheet inconsistency, including prior negative equity and large leverage swings across periods.
Positive Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent, high free cash flow and near-1:1 cash-to-earnings conversion provide durable financial flexibility. This supports reinvestment in growth (product, hiring, AI), sustained dividends and share repurchases, and cushions the business through alternative-asset fundraising cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Balance-Sheet Volatility
Large swings in leverage and periods of negative equity signal capital-structure instability. Elevated and variable leverage constrains strategic flexibility, increases refinancing and covenant risk, and could limit opportunistic investing or shareholder distributions if adverse conditions recur.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash Generation
Consistent, high free cash flow and near-1:1 cash-to-earnings conversion provide durable financial flexibility. This supports reinvestment in growth (product, hiring, AI), sustained dividends and share repurchases, and cushions the business through alternative-asset fundraising cycles over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
GCM Grosvenor (GCMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.43B
Dividend Yield3.91%
Average Volume (3M)415.38K
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.6
Beta (1Y)0.77
Revenue Growth5.42%
EPS Growth143.26%
CountryUS
Employees549
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.92
Shares Outstanding60,383,163
10 Day Avg. Volume512,732
30 Day Avg. Volume415,379
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)21.81
Price to Sales (P/S)1.07
P/FCF Ratio3.36
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.45
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.60
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.25Price Target Upside30.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.86
Revenue Forecast (FY)$577.57M
GCM Grosvenor Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GCM Grosvenor Inc. is a global leader in providing alternative asset management solutions. The firm primarily caters to pooled investment vehicles, but also extends its services to various other clients, including investment companies, high net wo...
How the Company Makes Money
GCM Grosvenor primarily makes money by earning fees for managing and advising on alternative investment portfolios. Its core revenue streams typically include: (1) management fees charged on assets under management (AUM) in commingled funds and se...
GCM Grosvenor Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call conveyed a constructive and growth-oriented outlook: strong AUM and fee-paying AUM growth, record carried interest, diversified fundraising across strategies (infrastructure, ARS, credit) and clear progress in the wealth channel and product launches. Management emphasized underlying organic revenue and FRE growth after adjusting for prior-year catch-up fees, expanding pipeline and strategic hires, plus capital returns and balance sheet strength. Near-term headwinds include a flat reported FRE (GAAP-view) driven by prior-year timing, slightly elevated G&A from AI investments, and the inherent uncertainty in monetizing carried interest. On balance, highlights and positive momentum materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
AUM and Fee-Paying AUM Growth
Assets under management of $91.0B (up 12% year-over-year) and fee-paying AUM of $74.0B (up 11% year-over-year), reflecting growth driven by both performance and capital formation.
Negative Updates
Reported FRE and Fee-Related Revenue Flat on a GAAP-Reported Basis
Fee-related earnings were flat year-over-year at $47M and fee-related revenue was $107M on a reported basis, with growth masked by the prior-year catch-up management fees, which distorted YoY comparatives.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
AUM and Fee-Paying AUM Growth
Assets under management of $91.0B (up 12% year-over-year) and fee-paying AUM of $74.0B (up 11% year-over-year), reflecting growth driven by both performance and capital formation.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
On the call management reiterated confidence in near‑term and multi‑year targets while providing specific Q2 and FY signals: Q1 AUM was $91B and fee‑paying AUM $74B (up 12% and 11% YoY) with $9.8B contracted but not yet fee‑paying (+20% YoY) and unrealized carried interest topping $1.0B (firm share >$500M, +16% and +23% YoY); fundraising was $1.5B in Q1 and $9.3B over the last 12 months (infrastructure $2.6B, ARS $2.0B, credit secondaries ~$1.0B), ARS fee‑paying AUM was $26B (+16% YoY), fee‑related revenue was $107M and fee‑related earnings $47M (FRE margin 44%) — excluding $7.6M of Q1’25 catch‑up fees, private market management fees of $63M grew ~7% YoY — and the company expects Q2 private market management fees to be ~+2% sequential, ARS management fees to be ~+1% sequential (≈+10% YoY), overall fee‑related revenue to rise in Q2 by a high single‑digit % YoY, FRE compensation & benefits to increase ~$1M in Q2 (from $37M), G&A to remain near $23M, and larger fundraising in Q2 and the back half of 2026 while reaffirming the 2028 FRE/ANI growth objectives.GCM Grosvenor Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 549.54M | 550.08M | 503.52M | 436.14M | 452.00M | 538.59M |
| Gross Profit | 545.20M | 545.65M | 500.20M | 433.44M | 440.43M | 534.57M |
| EBITDA | 192.68M | 174.66M | 67.16M | -3.93M | 125.59M | 184.17M |
| Net Income | 50.38M | 45.37M | 18.70M | 12.77M | 19.82M | 21.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 688.77M | 813.76M | 612.73M | 504.94M | 488.93M | 581.62M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 164.39M | 242.12M | 89.45M | 44.35M | 85.16M | 96.19M |
| Total Debt | 414.47M | 480.23M | 485.92M | 426.21M | 403.15M | 390.52M |
| Total Liabilities | 566.50M | 686.33M | 703.07M | 616.17M | 582.94M | 637.42M |
| Stockholders Equity | 25.49M | 26.99M | -27.62M | -27.63M | -19.82M | -25.71M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 190.82M | 175.04M | 132.04M | 88.30M | 215.73M | 178.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 202.00M | 183.54M | 148.77M | 92.06M | 216.51M | 178.80M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -115.98M | -120.50M | -31.83M | -18.84M | -10.07M | -28.11M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.50M | 89.13M | -70.38M | -113.66M | -215.07M | -251.27M |
GCM Grosvenor Technical Analysis
Positive
10.94
Price Trends
10.78
Positive
10.69
Positive
11.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.29
Negative
69.87
Neutral
84.51
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For GCMG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.93, above the 50-day MA of 10.78, and below the 200-day MA of 11.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.29 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for GCMG.
GCM Grosvenor Risk Analysis
GCM Grosvenor disclosed 79 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. GCM Grosvenor reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
GCM Grosvenor Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $2.91B | 8.26 | 71.27% | 8.72% | 9.72% | 8.92% | |
72 Outperform | $2.43B | 14.60 | 614.24% | 3.91% | 5.42% | 143.26% | |
70 Outperform | $1.84B | 25.07 | 12.14% | 3.78% | 3.28% | -3.07% | |
69 Neutral | $3.85B | 24.72 | 28.28% | 3.92% | 9.99% | -1.69% | |
68 Neutral | $2.90B | 8.53 | 15.11% | 10.00% | 14.32% | 36.84% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
52 Neutral | $1.05B | 14.15 | 5.14% | 17.34% | 14.92% | 48.21% |
* Financial Sector Average
GCMG
GCM Grosvenor
12.05
1.07
9.77%
CNS
Cohen & Steers
74.88
2.77
3.83%
HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
15.49
-0.60
-3.73%
APAM
Artisan Partners
35.88
-3.02
-7.76%
GSBD
Goldman Sachs BDC
9.31
-0.44
-4.52%
PAX
Patria Investments
11.37
-1.87
-14.14%
GCM Grosvenor Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
GCM Grosvenor shareholders back directors and auditor slate
Positive
Jun 12, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on June 9, 2026, GCM Grosvenor Inc. reported that holders of its Class A and Class C common stock representing about 94.42% of combined voting power participated, underscoring strong shareholder engagemen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.